SebMartel

SebMartel Updated 

As previously mentioned, 2630 pts on the SPX would have been a nice level to short if it could be combined with 10 year US yield at 2.81%, Crude oil at 54.5$ and Vix at 16. None of the latest were trading near their respective level by the time SPX was trading at 2630. Moving to today, 10 year yield are trading at 2bps from 2.81%, oil less than 1$ from 54.5 and...

SebMartel

Why would you be bullish now and bearish on Dec 24th ? Nothing has changed. Furthermore, why would you be bullish now and bearish on Dec 14th as the SP500 was trading at the same level back then. Is it panick buying ? Maybe, but is it time to short ? SP500 reached the level I talked about in the last few posts. But 10 year US yield has not reached 2.81%, neither...

SebMartel

One way to use technical analysis is to find a single level (point or price) that is derived from different technical approach, such as support and resistance, fibo retracement, projection, etc. Even more interesting is when different markets seam to align together at the same time toward the similar level. Bottom line, I think financial markets are getting close...

SebMartel

The S&P 500 gain 10% since it hit a bottom on December 26th. It is now approaching a strong resistance area around 2623 points. This level is a cluster of points represented by 61.8 % fibo retracement level of the last leg down (Dec 3rd to Dec26th). It is also a projection target of C = A, where A wave formed between Dec 26th and Dec 28th and wave C undergoing...

SebMartel

IS the new range 21/36 ?

SebMartel

Gold almost reach the target of 1305$. From here, market will go test 1265 before any other attempt to surpass 1300$

SebMartel

Here is the VIX new range you should look at when trading SP500. Basically, I think SP500 can run up to 2621 before resuming the downtrend. This should coincide with a VIX at 20 .

SebMartel Updated 

So no change on the USD/CAD target of 1.36 I made in October (pair was at 1.3147 back then). Better be boring and right than entertainer and wrong. Although Poloz is finally starting to agree about rates being high enough, the CAD weakness is not about domestic activity, but about a stronger US dollar across the board (except YEN). So 1.36 is a soft target because...

SebMartel Updated 

Crude is at an interesting juncture. First, 61.8 fibo retracement from 2016 low. Then, volume, if any good on TradingView, has been increasing on down price in October and November. But the last week decline in price has been accompanied by low volume. Exhaustion ? Finally, it's not clear if the decline is a five wave pattern, but one thing for sure is that most...

SebMartel

It's not a secret, gold is correlated to USD/CNH, and way before trade talks started. Since the end of 2016, when one asset was making a new high, the other one was making a new low. Until recently. In October, USD/CNH made a new high and gold kept his positive momentum. Bottom line, gold still has good upside.

SebMartel Updated 

Still bullish on gold, although this prediction hasn't done much so far. Yes, gold bullish and US dollar bullish. So what ! Gold is getting support from lower rates and increasing worries around the globe. Target is 1305 $

SebMartel Updated 

As previously mentionned, mid term, USD/CAD is heading to 1.36.

SebMartel

For long term investors, I want to point out two things. One, when charting a security on a monthly basis, most people keep the scale as is. Long term chart should always be Log Scale. With this in mind, you will notice the US10Y never cross above the downtrend line in place since 80's. Although I think rates in the long run has reverse higher, the line would have...

SebMartel

Crude Oil lost more than 30% of it's value recently and the absence of a rebound in the last three weeks does not bold well for the commodity. But Wave 4 correction is complex so don't get caught with false signal. Instead, waiting for 53.50$ to go short. Don't forget, Short on green day only. The theme of a deeper correction still very alive for the stock market...

SebMartel

Short covering the remaining. SP500 made a new 8 months low as the VIX headed to 26 and look like to form an hammer (although toot soon to tell). We'll have better level to short again very soon.

SebMartel

Stop holding your breath, SP500 is going lower, either soon or very soon. Structure of the market clearly underline an unstable and fractured pattern. We will carefully monitor how the correction will evolve and look for clue of a soft bottom near 2450. But I believe 2200 is attainable. I repeat, stay long bond, utilities, telecom and short index, industrials,...

SebMartel

Staples will continue to outperform the market. Nice point of entry here around 55.20/55.30.

SebMartel

For the third time in less than five weeks, the index is testing the lower range of a rising channel. I would only go for a partial short covering since 2813 short (see previous post). Partial only because VIX hasn't reach ideal level (26-27) and I still believe market has more room for downside.