Here's an explanation why Elliott Waves don't work most of the time, and then sometimes work perfectly. Lets take a closer look at a single impulse wave up and its correction (I'm using 61.8% retracement and wave 3 = 100% of wave 1). You simply can't trade based on that (red dots), here's why. If you treat it as 123 up trend forming (green count), you can't...
A close look at the CME futures BTC1! chart tells us that we're still in up trend, clear as day: 1. there's only one clear bottom 2. bull volume is rising 3. we're in a clear upwards channel 4. we're above EMAs, golden cross, fanning up 5. divergence on RSI and EWO caused wave 4 correction Bull targets: - 8800 (2.618 of wave 1, 100% of wave i + iii, 100% of...
Here's a new macro view in response to the recently leaked news of a possible ETF approval by the end of Sep 2018 (nothing major, just some ex-SEC employee leaked stuff). Bullish factors: 1. Wyckoff perspective: The whole 2018 Bear Market could be a Wyckoff accumulation trading range. We had a selling climax, automatic reaction, sign of weakness, secondary test,...
You can see that T5 is a confluence/intersection zone for 3 pitchfork channels, a green horizontal resistance line, D1 EMA 200 and RSI Bands. We're overbought on all TFs, not just the daily, maxed out on RSI Bands, so the only way is down. We will consolidate/move sideways for a few days until the futures expire (between 7500-7800), then have a some sort of a...
You can swing trade even without Elliott Waves using commonly known algo targets. Trading algos don't care about Elliott Waves, they can only detect swings and use common fib relationships for entry/exit points. Usually algos are written to defend 50% and 61.8-65% retracements of the prev swing and then use -23.6% and -61.8% as their conservative targets for...
Just a reminder, be careful as this could be a major bull trap and the start of 2018 capitulation. All this crazy pumping from nowhere could lead to a drop to 4K as in 2014 Bear Market Capitulation. We had the same type of D1 death cross, have breached D1 EMA100 and are now testing W1 EMA50, also have D1 RSI oversold and could not break the triangle bottom. You...
We just had our pump as expected. 300 brave whale HODLers lead by King Leonidas himself are defending the narrow 6K passage to prevent Bitcoin from spilling. Sadly, they will all die for nothing in the end. Project Phoenix has been initiated to revive the up trend once again. Let's review further options for Bitcoin. Key Dates: - Friday or July 27th - expiration...
You can use the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO, Awesome Oscillator AO) to spot and label Elliott Waves. Here I'm using an indicator called Elliott Wave Oscillator with Bands. The next best thing is BullTrading_MTF-EWO_V2.0 BullTrading Elliott Wave Oscillator by Gustavo. Don't bother looking into other EWOs. The Bands version uses hl2 (shifted fwd by 1 bar) instead...
On the weekend BTC and ETH were busy showing off their strength while dragging around their seemingly dead buddies LTC, BCH, EOS and IOT like puppets. Lets review the current possibilities. After a golden cross on H1 on all major pairs, Bitcoin holds the up trend above EMAs for about a week, expecting a golden cross on H4 soon. A proper H4 golden cross (with EMAs...
We've been trending sideways a lot lately. We mostly have pumps and long consolidations, not a proper trend. So, here are some tips on how you can trade and survive in this market. There are 2 basic ways of trading sideways trends. I'm using the M15 chart to illustrate. 1) Treat everything as a range. Trade breakouts from the range. Place Buy Stop orders above...
We have a double bottom at 5800 and a $600 pump to instill confidence in traders and spark a new hope for the bulls. We have also just touched the upper channel of the down trend inside the pitchfork, but haven't broken out yet. Now, let's review the possibilities: 1. It can be a flat abc upwards correction (3-3-5 structure) as part of the large down trend with...
Here's a comparison of Longs vs Shorts vs Bitcoin Price. You can see that for the past 2 weeks in general shorts have been declining and longs rising while the price of Bitcoin was steadily trending down from 10000. This could ultimately lead to The Bloody Bull Massacre. When longs will be at ATH (around 33000) and shorts at ATL (around 22000) there could be a...
If you have ever wondered how to estimate the exact price corresponding to future RSI oversold and overbought levels, there's an indicator for that called RSI bands. It's basically Bollinger Bands for RSI. It plots the RSI oversold/overbought band lines relative to the price. You watch when the price touches the bands. On the chart there are several P contact...
Ok, here's an updated analysis of Bitcoin. We're trending down in down channel of the pitch fork. There won't be any significant bullish action on any crypto asset until Bitcoin breaks out of this channel. You can see the whole move down as a sequence of nested WXY in a wave Y of a larger degree WXY. Some parts of it can be counted as 5 waves of A and C of ABC....
Here's my latest take on Bitcoin. We had a massive selloff as predicted, Bitcoin have breached 6400 major support to hit the bear flag target and almost reached 6000. This is it for now. You could have a nice profit if you went short. There was a strong bull reaction at the bottom on M15, so Bitcoin's not dead yet at these levels - you could see a huge spike in...
On June 11th we have entered a bear market. The decline and consolidation will now take much longer than expected. After Coinbase, 4 major other exchanges are being subpoenaed and investigated by request from CME for possible wash trading and market manipulations. This is probably the reason why we didn't go back up on monday after weekend to sync with the...
Note how since the start of 2018 Bear Market we "reverse" all changes after weekends (spikes in either direction if any) to start mondays at roughly the same price level as before or at least retest that level (probably to sync with the futures). We are currently moving in a down channel and are still being rejected by EMAs, will likely bounce down from the...
In the Anatomy of a Bear Market Series I compare different Bitcoin Bear markets using Ichimoku and S/R: June 2017 on H4 was a bear market that looks similar to the June 2016 and the current 2018 bear market which also just so happens to start in June. You can see many similarities, so I just wonder, are there any bulls left? 2017 bear market's structure: - both...