Don't Be a Menace to Bear While Drinking Juice In His Lair
Here's my latest take on Bitcoin.
We had a massive selloff as predicted, Bitcoin have breached 6400 major support to hit the bear flag target and almost reached 6000. This is it for now. You could have a nice profit if you went short.
There was a strong bull reaction at the bottom on M15, so Bitcoin's not dead yet at these levels - you could see a huge spike in buying volume. This is not the ATL S3/S4 bottom described in the anatomy of a bear market, this is only a first step on our way into the abyss. I think even 5500-5000 will still not be enough for a permanent natural uptrend and bull run. Nevertheless, a short up trend now becomes possible. The price could be manipulated up once again, of course, if someone's accumulating at 6000 for long term.
1) Bear Scenario (red or blue count):
In this scenario we will go down in ABC of an Y of a major (WXY). We are extremely overbought on RSI on all major TFs.
Another short leg down to 6000 is possible to complete wave 5 of a smaller degree, but we won't break this level today. Expect a bounce up in wave B to 23.6%-38.2% retracement (6450) where we should be rejected by EMA50 and go down in C to break 6000 and try to reach 5500 support level. Another major selloff could start below 6000.
Note how you can replace 1-2-3-4-5 with a nested WXY or abc in a wxy when you need to fit 3 waves instead of 5 into a count and get away with it.
2) Bull Scenario (green count):
In this scenario the (WXY) downfall is almost over and a new short term up trend begins soon.
A larger bounce to 61.8% (7000) to get EMA 100 support may lead to a bullish continuation and a possible target of up to 8400 (Daily Ichimoku now allows us to move past 8150) but chances are slim (thick cloud).
According to a Weekly ichimoku, we still won't see 10K for the next 3 months. This could only be a short term bull run that will ultimately end with a move to 6000 and deeper levels again.
Keep an eye on BFXLS Sentiment. Today we almost had a parity on Longs vs Shorts. When more than 50% of the market thinks that Bitcoin will go down - time to consider going long when the opportunity presents itself. With enough shorts the game becomes a Bear Hunt where all the bears are eventually slaughtered and squeezed with a 1000-2000-3000$ pump up with no sizeable correction to exit.
Watch EMAs for rejection/support. Usually we get rejected 1-2 times by EMA50, a third time by EMA100. On a 4th time we can challenge EMA200. The angle is important. The flatter the better for support
In general, follow the magical rule of three: we usually break a level after 2-3 retests on the 3rd or 4th time or bounce to a new level to start the next three retests.
You must learn to unsee. When in doubt, always consult your inner bear, he'll blindly guide you with the force within for a smaller loss and a greater profit. Do you even have one? You should, they come cheap and don't eat much. They sleep most of the time.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based on my analysis only. Do your own research to confirm. This is not a financial advice. Use at your own risk.
We had a massive selloff as predicted, Bitcoin have breached 6400 major support to hit the bear flag target and almost reached 6000. This is it for now. You could have a nice profit if you went short.
There was a strong bull reaction at the bottom on M15, so Bitcoin's not dead yet at these levels - you could see a huge spike in buying volume. This is not the ATL S3/S4 bottom described in the anatomy of a bear market, this is only a first step on our way into the abyss. I think even 5500-5000 will still not be enough for a permanent natural uptrend and bull run. Nevertheless, a short up trend now becomes possible. The price could be manipulated up once again, of course, if someone's accumulating at 6000 for long term.
1) Bear Scenario (red or blue count):
In this scenario we will go down in ABC of an Y of a major (WXY). We are extremely overbought on RSI on all major TFs.
Another short leg down to 6000 is possible to complete wave 5 of a smaller degree, but we won't break this level today. Expect a bounce up in wave B to 23.6%-38.2% retracement (6450) where we should be rejected by EMA50 and go down in C to break 6000 and try to reach 5500 support level. Another major selloff could start below 6000.
Note how you can replace 1-2-3-4-5 with a nested WXY or abc in a wxy when you need to fit 3 waves instead of 5 into a count and get away with it.
2) Bull Scenario (green count):
In this scenario the (WXY) downfall is almost over and a new short term up trend begins soon.
A larger bounce to 61.8% (7000) to get EMA 100 support may lead to a bullish continuation and a possible target of up to 8400 (Daily Ichimoku now allows us to move past 8150) but chances are slim (thick cloud).
According to a Weekly ichimoku, we still won't see 10K for the next 3 months. This could only be a short term bull run that will ultimately end with a move to 6000 and deeper levels again.
Keep an eye on BFXLS Sentiment. Today we almost had a parity on Longs vs Shorts. When more than 50% of the market thinks that Bitcoin will go down - time to consider going long when the opportunity presents itself. With enough shorts the game becomes a Bear Hunt where all the bears are eventually slaughtered and squeezed with a 1000-2000-3000$ pump up with no sizeable correction to exit.
Watch EMAs for rejection/support. Usually we get rejected 1-2 times by EMA50, a third time by EMA100. On a 4th time we can challenge EMA200. The angle is important. The flatter the better for support
In general, follow the magical rule of three: we usually break a level after 2-3 retests on the 3rd or 4th time or bounce to a new level to start the next three retests.
You must learn to unsee. When in doubt, always consult your inner bear, he'll blindly guide you with the force within for a smaller loss and a greater profit. Do you even have one? You should, they come cheap and don't eat much. They sleep most of the time.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based on my analysis only. Do your own research to confirm. This is not a financial advice. Use at your own risk.
Comment:
...and we have a small pump. But this shallow quiet $100 pump doesn't seem like a good start for up trend. On the contrary, it's looks more like a fakeout to the up side, the final gasp for air of the upwards correction before the ultimate rejection by the EMA 200 on H1. Lately we have such pumps every 48 hours, so it seems artificial in nature just to keep sideways trend for a while. I would rather expect a decline soon than a bullish continuation.
Comment:
Yes, we're past EMA 200 on H1 of BTC and ETH on Bitfinex/Bitstamp and seem to be going up. But look at the CME:BTC1! futures chart. We haven't reached the EMA yet. And BCH IOT EOS are not picking up the move. And LTC is also below its EMA. I still see it as more of a good short opportunity than long.
Comment:
Seems that we'll have another leg up to finish the upwards WXY correction. I'm closing my shorts, will short again from top
BCHUSD - dangerously more Shorts than Longs
ETHUSD - already more shorts than longs
BTCUSD, LTCUSD - almost parity
EOSUSD, IOTUSD - lots of longs, will likely shoot up (or down) first
Elliott Waves won't help you here. They can't predict a sudden pump. We can still form a desc triangle at 6000 and break it only a month or so later on a 3rd retest. Breaking 7800 will confirm a short up trend, 5900 - a larger degree down trend.