On the weekend BTC and ETH were busy showing off their strength while dragging around their seemingly dead buddies LTC, BCH, EOS and IOT like puppets. Lets review the current possibilities.
After a golden cross on H1 on all major pairs, Bitcoin holds the up trend above EMAs for about a week, expecting a golden cross on H4 soon.
A proper H4 golden cross (with EMAs fanning up wide and not negated by a subsequent death cross) could change the trend for the short term and give us up to a month of general up trend.
1. Bear/Bull. We will touch 6950 in a small wave v (blue count) to end a larger wave 1 (or wxy in wave B correction) and
- retrace 38.2-50% to 6500-6350 in wave 4 of the up trend (if this is a wave 4)
- retrace 50-61.8% to 6350-6250 in wave 2 of the up trend (if this is a wave 2)
- go down, break 5800 and resume the bearish trend (if all this was wxy in wave B upwards correction). There will be no golden cross on H4 in this case
6950 is the EMA50 of D1, just below the psychological level of 7000, making it a good candidate for reversal.
And, as you know, there's a rule of threes. We usually break everything on the 3rd or 4th touch.
After a significant bearish drop we usually retest EMA50 on the first attempt, EMA50-100 on a 2nd, and retest/break EMA200 on a 3rd/4th.
6950 will be our first touch of a daily EMA50 after a massive drop, so we can go down swiftly and resume the bearish trend.
2. Bull (less likely due to the length of triangle). We can build an asc triangle abcde supported by EMA200 to break 6800 to the up side. The longer we consolidate inside the triangle, the stronger the upwards candle will be, so we could break 6800, 7000 and the pitchfork channel too and go up to 7500 (D1 EMA100 and green trend line). The asc triangle will put as in wave 2 of the up trend.
golden cross on H4 will confirm the up trend for the short term. We need to break 7700 prev high and 8000 (D1 EMA200) to become bullish.
3. Bear/Bull (low probability). We can also have a leg (c) of (abc) down (correction to 50% 6350), then another (abc/wxy) up to continue the upwads correction (this scenario does not seem likely)
But, I think we will at least try to break 6800 (and on the 3rd time we can be successful), we won't just flush down from this level. H1 RSI is around 50, H4 - 60, D1 - 50 so we can definitely go up more but it may also take another week perhaps.
Good Luck!
This is not a financial advice. Learn to trade, do it responsibly. Don't trade based only on this analysis, confirm/disprove using other methods.
After a golden cross on H1 on all major pairs, Bitcoin holds the up trend above EMAs for about a week, expecting a golden cross on H4 soon.
A proper H4 golden cross (with EMAs fanning up wide and not negated by a subsequent death cross) could change the trend for the short term and give us up to a month of general up trend.
1. Bear/Bull. We will touch 6950 in a small wave v (blue count) to end a larger wave 1 (or wxy in wave B correction) and
- retrace 38.2-50% to 6500-6350 in wave 4 of the up trend (if this is a wave 4)
- retrace 50-61.8% to 6350-6250 in wave 2 of the up trend (if this is a wave 2)
- go down, break 5800 and resume the bearish trend (if all this was wxy in wave B upwards correction). There will be no golden cross on H4 in this case
6950 is the EMA50 of D1, just below the psychological level of 7000, making it a good candidate for reversal.
And, as you know, there's a rule of threes. We usually break everything on the 3rd or 4th touch.
After a significant bearish drop we usually retest EMA50 on the first attempt, EMA50-100 on a 2nd, and retest/break EMA200 on a 3rd/4th.
6950 will be our first touch of a daily EMA50 after a massive drop, so we can go down swiftly and resume the bearish trend.
2. Bull (less likely due to the length of triangle). We can build an asc triangle abcde supported by EMA200 to break 6800 to the up side. The longer we consolidate inside the triangle, the stronger the upwards candle will be, so we could break 6800, 7000 and the pitchfork channel too and go up to 7500 (D1 EMA100 and green trend line). The asc triangle will put as in wave 2 of the up trend.
golden cross on H4 will confirm the up trend for the short term. We need to break 7700 prev high and 8000 (D1 EMA200) to become bullish.
3. Bear/Bull (low probability). We can also have a leg (c) of (abc) down (correction to 50% 6350), then another (abc/wxy) up to continue the upwads correction (this scenario does not seem likely)
But, I think we will at least try to break 6800 (and on the 3rd time we can be successful), we won't just flush down from this level. H1 RSI is around 50, H4 - 60, D1 - 50 so we can definitely go up more but it may also take another week perhaps.
Good Luck!
This is not a financial advice. Learn to trade, do it responsibly. Don't trade based only on this analysis, confirm/disprove using other methods.
Comment:
The prev RSI Bands / Pitchforks analysis also supports 6900-6950 as target
Comment:
EOS has dropped already, IOT, LTC are getting ready to drop, ETH declining
Comment:
Don't expect a big drop. This looks like a small tactical correction before the final wave up. If you went short already buy everything back when BTC futures reach EMA50 (6620) or EMA100 (6560). We're fine until BTC futures are above EMA200.
Names like LTC, BCH and IOT can go a bit lower to finish their corresponding wave setups.
ETH may reach its EMA200.
Looks lke EOS will have another leg down
Names like LTC, BCH and IOT can go a bit lower to finish their corresponding wave setups.
ETH may reach its EMA200.
Looks lke EOS will have another leg down
Comment:
Some numbers of interest (very rough estimate, can be totally wrong):
If you take 24hr volume on the top 10 exchanges from here
coinmarketcap.com/cu...cies/volume/24-hour/
then sum independently the volumes of xBTC xUSD pairs for alts: EOS, LTC, IOT, BCH and also BTC/USD volume you will find out that:
1. BTC/USD 24hr volume is roughly only 16% of the total BTC daily volume $575mln vs $3.6bln (the latter includes all xBTC and BTCx pairs)
And EOSUSD market is booming at the 4th place. So it's totally possibly to manipulate it using fewer resources.
2. xBTC pairs total 24hr volume is roughly 45% of the BTC/USD 24hr volume. This is a sizeable volume.
3. xUSD pairs total 24hr volume is roughly 90% of the BTC/USD 24hr volume
4. When people sell alts for USD a higher demand for USD is created, and BTC/USD also goes down as USD becomes more expensive and you need more BTC to buy USD, so BTC's worth is less USD.
5. When people sell alts for BTC a higher demand for BTC is created, and BTC/USD goes up as result because now you need more USD to buy 1 BTC that is more expensive
6. To maintain the BTC/USD price at a certain level when market is going down selling of alts for BTC is used to counter sell-offs of alts for USD.
If your total xUSD volume for alts is 90% of BTC/USD and xBTC volume for alts is 45% you can guess that you need to sell 2x as much alts for BTC to hold the price at the same level.
7. If you multiply the avg 24hr price change -4% for xBTC vs -4.4% for xUSD by corresponding xBTC % of BTC/USD volume you will get a weighted coeff of influence for a particular alt.
Interestingly, if you avg these coeff for xBTC (+0.76%) and for xUSD (-1.26%) respectively and sum them up you will get the roughly 24hr price change for BTC/USD itself (1.26-0.76=-0.8%).
All this proves that a certain BTC/USD price level can be/is maintained just by selling xBTC alts for BTC without adding new USD liquidity to the market.
If you take 24hr volume on the top 10 exchanges from here
coinmarketcap.com/cu...cies/volume/24-hour/
then sum independently the volumes of xBTC xUSD pairs for alts: EOS, LTC, IOT, BCH and also BTC/USD volume you will find out that:
1. BTC/USD 24hr volume is roughly only 16% of the total BTC daily volume $575mln vs $3.6bln (the latter includes all xBTC and BTCx pairs)
And EOSUSD market is booming at the 4th place. So it's totally possibly to manipulate it using fewer resources.
2. xBTC pairs total 24hr volume is roughly 45% of the BTC/USD 24hr volume. This is a sizeable volume.
3. xUSD pairs total 24hr volume is roughly 90% of the BTC/USD 24hr volume
4. When people sell alts for USD a higher demand for USD is created, and BTC/USD also goes down as USD becomes more expensive and you need more BTC to buy USD, so BTC's worth is less USD.
5. When people sell alts for BTC a higher demand for BTC is created, and BTC/USD goes up as result because now you need more USD to buy 1 BTC that is more expensive
6. To maintain the BTC/USD price at a certain level when market is going down selling of alts for BTC is used to counter sell-offs of alts for USD.
If your total xUSD volume for alts is 90% of BTC/USD and xBTC volume for alts is 45% you can guess that you need to sell 2x as much alts for BTC to hold the price at the same level.
7. If you multiply the avg 24hr price change -4% for xBTC vs -4.4% for xUSD by corresponding xBTC % of BTC/USD volume you will get a weighted coeff of influence for a particular alt.
Interestingly, if you avg these coeff for xBTC (+0.76%) and for xUSD (-1.26%) respectively and sum them up you will get the roughly 24hr price change for BTC/USD itself (1.26-0.76=-0.8%).
All this proves that a certain BTC/USD price level can be/is maintained just by selling xBTC alts for BTC without adding new USD liquidity to the market.
Comment:
Bitcoin just went stop-loss hunting with longs covering. We now have a triple top (4 retests of 6800 on Poloniex). This looks bad for the bulls. If we close on an hourly with such a long wick on top that's totally bearish.
Comment:
We have dropped to 50% after losing an important EMA200 support on the futures as predicted. Keep an eye on the RSI oversold. We're currently oversold on H1 and H4 on most names. We're not H4 oversold just yet on the futures, so another leg down after an upwards correction is possible (last time we bounced at H4 RSI = 21). When H4 becomes extremely oversold start tracking the D1 RSI.
Current targets:
BTC: 6290 (3.618 of wave 1), next target 6140 (4.618 of wave 1)
ETH: 421 (2.618 of wave 1)
EOS: 6.94 (3.618 of wave 1)
BCH: might drop to around 662 prev support
IOTA: might drop to around 0.9 prev support
have a stop loss
We can also bounce from 6300 on BTC and attempt to go up in zombie berserk mode if the trend line channel support holds. It will depend on whether we fall below 6250 on the futures or start pulling ourselves back by the hair like one famous Baron used to do.
Current targets:
BTC: 6290 (3.618 of wave 1), next target 6140 (4.618 of wave 1)
ETH: 421 (2.618 of wave 1)
EOS: 6.94 (3.618 of wave 1)
BCH: might drop to around 662 prev support
IOTA: might drop to around 0.9 prev support
have a stop loss
We can also bounce from 6300 on BTC and attempt to go up in zombie berserk mode if the trend line channel support holds. It will depend on whether we fall below 6250 on the futures or start pulling ourselves back by the hair like one famous Baron used to do.
Comment:
We have death crossed on H1 on all pairs and soon on the futures too. Not looking good for the bulls.
Comment:
BTC and EOS have reached their targets. ETH has reached 425.
New targets:
All targets are valid only if BTC futures break 6250 down from horiz channel,
and BTCUSD breaks down 6250 horiz channel mid line and from its ascending channel with trend line supports at 5800 and 6300 (this will likely happen)
BTC: 6070 (0.618 of waves 0-3), expect a bounce at 6150 prev support, 2nd target 5850 (100% of wave 0-3) ATL.
ETH: 405 (0.618 of wave A), prev ATL, expect a bounce at 419
LTC: 73 ATL, 2nd target 69.5 (2.618 of wave i, 100% of wave a, 1.618 of wave A)
EOS: 6.10 (2.618 of wave 1, 2.618 of wave i), double bottom will break
BCH: 662 prev ATL, 2nd target 643-650 (2.618 of wave 1, 0.618 of waves 0-3)
IOTA: 0.9-0.91 (100% of wave A), prev support, 2nd target 0.87-0.89 (0.618 of wave i, 2.618 of wave i), prev ATL
have a stop loss
New targets:
All targets are valid only if BTC futures break 6250 down from horiz channel,
and BTCUSD breaks down 6250 horiz channel mid line and from its ascending channel with trend line supports at 5800 and 6300 (this will likely happen)
BTC: 6070 (0.618 of waves 0-3), expect a bounce at 6150 prev support, 2nd target 5850 (100% of wave 0-3) ATL.
ETH: 405 (0.618 of wave A), prev ATL, expect a bounce at 419
LTC: 73 ATL, 2nd target 69.5 (2.618 of wave i, 100% of wave a, 1.618 of wave A)
EOS: 6.10 (2.618 of wave 1, 2.618 of wave i), double bottom will break
BCH: 662 prev ATL, 2nd target 643-650 (2.618 of wave 1, 0.618 of waves 0-3)
IOTA: 0.9-0.91 (100% of wave A), prev support, 2nd target 0.87-0.89 (0.618 of wave i, 2.618 of wave i), prev ATL
have a stop loss
Comment:
We're close to oversold on H4 and H1, so we won't drop today, possibly tomorrow. We can only go up and retest EMA50 to try to get its support (up to H1 RSI 60 at 6450). According to H4 RSI Bands we can drop to 6300 max. On D1 we can go as low as 5450 but that's daily (not happening today).
There are a series of double bottoms below 30 on H4 RSI marked with yellow circles. We have the 1st leg in at RSI 35. The second leg down can only happen in 20 hrs.
We had 1 bullish engulfment bar at the end of correction on H1, and bull volume on the futures is slowly increasing, while bear volume decreasing. We only have increasing bear volume on the daily and today's the green day.
So, cut or manage your shorts accordingly.
There are a series of double bottoms below 30 on H4 RSI marked with yellow circles. We have the 1st leg in at RSI 35. The second leg down can only happen in 20 hrs.
We had 1 bullish engulfment bar at the end of correction on H1, and bull volume on the futures is slowly increasing, while bear volume decreasing. We only have increasing bear volume on the daily and today's the green day.
So, cut or manage your shorts accordingly.
Comment:
I'm expecting a drop in a few hours, but you can also place a stop buy order above EMA200/50% retracement in case BTC decides to go straight up to 7000 just to cover all your bases both ways.
Comment:
Bitcoin won't drop below 6070 today because there's a major RSI bands trend line starting from February, and we've already bounced off of it last time. If we break 6000, then 5800 won't hold this time and there's no reason to go there because we didn't touch D1 EMA50. We need to touch it to get a definitive rejection and incentive to go down.
We have also just touched the pitchfork channel, so a small correction is due. There is already the 1st red wick on the H4 RSI overbought band (see above). As soon as the 2nd wick's forked spike finishes forming we will shoot straight up, possibly to around 6500 (with target 6900), just like we did last time.
If we break 6800 this can also play as a neck of an inverted double bottom H&S with target 7800.
RSI is oversold on H1 and H4, you can also see divergence on many coins, momentum and volume is decreasing, and, boy, what a slomo 1000fps this drop is. So, we will likely reverse and go up when it finishes.
We have also just touched the pitchfork channel, so a small correction is due. There is already the 1st red wick on the H4 RSI overbought band (see above). As soon as the 2nd wick's forked spike finishes forming we will shoot straight up, possibly to around 6500 (with target 6900), just like we did last time.
If we break 6800 this can also play as a neck of an inverted double bottom H&S with target 7800.
RSI is oversold on H1 and H4, you can also see divergence on many coins, momentum and volume is decreasing, and, boy, what a slomo 1000fps this drop is. So, we will likely reverse and go up when it finishes.
Comment:
Bitcoin has touched 6070 and bounced on a strong candle as expected, though we didn't go straight up. A bullish continuation is now in the cards, so consider managing/cutting your shorts when we get EMA50 support.
BCH has reached the 662 target
ETH did bounce at 419
Other crypto have made shallow bottoms without reaching their targets
The next logical step is a weekend pump (probably Sunday), because BTC futures trading is closed on weekends and whales can manipulate the price however they want. We can't go higher than 6550 today because of the Ichimoku cloud flat bottom on H4 (a bounce down is likely). On Sunday the flat line ends and we will be able to go past that level again.
RSI Bands predict max possible high of 6350 on H1 for today. Expect a small step up and a sideways market. Bulls will need to break 6400 prev high/EMA 200 to show strength. Consider exiting your shorts beyond these levels.
Exercise caution and patience. We can still go down because H4 ichimoku on the BTC futures has a flat top at 6275 till July 18th but it may not be as precise due to weekend gaps on the chart.
BCH has reached the 662 target
ETH did bounce at 419
Other crypto have made shallow bottoms without reaching their targets
The next logical step is a weekend pump (probably Sunday), because BTC futures trading is closed on weekends and whales can manipulate the price however they want. We can't go higher than 6550 today because of the Ichimoku cloud flat bottom on H4 (a bounce down is likely). On Sunday the flat line ends and we will be able to go past that level again.
RSI Bands predict max possible high of 6350 on H1 for today. Expect a small step up and a sideways market. Bulls will need to break 6400 prev high/EMA 200 to show strength. Consider exiting your shorts beyond these levels.
Exercise caution and patience. We can still go down because H4 ichimoku on the BTC futures has a flat top at 6275 till July 18th but it may not be as precise due to weekend gaps on the chart.
Comment:
Bitcoin has just touched the predicted high of 6350 for today (abc upwards correction) and immediately got rejected from EMA100 with a strong bearish candle. This is as bearish as they come. We're going down to 6150 now. Bitcoin will probably form an abcde triangle with 6070 bottom and 6350 top (wave a). When it forms you can have stop orders below/above on both sides. Expect fakeouts.
The TA is bearish and if the pump does not come on the weekend, and considering the death cross on H1, we will go full blown bear for the whole week, possibly break both 6000 and 5800. Watch RSI Bands for min and max possible levels for the day.
The TA is bearish and if the pump does not come on the weekend, and considering the death cross on H1, we will go full blown bear for the whole week, possibly break both 6000 and 5800. Watch RSI Bands for min and max possible levels for the day.