QuercusTrading

QuercusTrading Updated 

#5 of Q4. After breaking upwards, price is now back at the lows doing a retest. A successful retest will confirm the 3-tap setup for a move to the recent highs. Also see next chart for deviation on the 4-hour.

QuercusTrading

#6 of Q4 Price is forming a top here. The small expanding ending diagonal last week could be the top, but it is taking some time to breakdown. If price do break the red support zone confidently, movement down could be swift. For conservative trading, take a 50% short position now before confirmation in case you aren't available to catch it. But leave a...

QuercusTrading

Trade #2 of Q2 Price has been trending up for 3 months. We won't know if this is the end, but several indicators line up. A break of the Bearish Harami candlestick, with a close below resistance. Successful Harami signals the end of trend. Price is currently at 70.5% retracement of the previous impulse move down. A probable completion of ABC. Deviation is...

QuercusTrading

New quarter is here. A time to forget the losses of Q1! I am focusing more on cleaner setups instead of riskier and ambigious setups for this quarter. First up is the GBPAUD Daily. Correction has been going on for 2 months, so is it time to get moving? We got a nice H&S, break of the neckline, and currently price is testing the backside. A successful move...

QuercusTrading

Rarely traded pair, but the impulsive move down followed by an ABC correction makes for a good short. Structure has been broken. Trade idea is to sell any minor rallies to get on with the bigger move down.

QuercusTrading Updated 

Bottom is likely done. Running Flat in Elliott Wave almost always fail. Look for price to push above the channel and ride Wave C towards Wave 4 of previous degree. Entering here has no trigger yet, so leave wider stops in case there is one more sweep down.

QuercusTrading Updated 

Clean and nice pattern. Rarely gets so much pullback that it looks like a H&S pattern. In any case, whichever pattern it is, the structure is there to e taken advantage of. Potential lucrative pips if the pattern plays out at the break of neckline. Good luck!

QuercusTrading

Post US interest rate decision, nothing has changed. We probably see another leg up for USD. I was bullish CAD for the past few weeks, especially on AUDCAD and NZDCAD, and is now bearish CAD. Price has not hit resistance yet. Probable Wave (4) up there waiting to be tagged.

QuercusTrading Updated 

We had more than a month of consolidation inside this range. IMO, breakout soon and to the downside. Two supporting points for this idea. 1. A large bearish engulfing bar on 15 Dec 2023 provides the top. 2. Bearish order flow on H4 chart over the past week.

QuercusTrading Updated 

Month end, month start, UK Interest Rate decision, NFP week. Quite an eventful week which may see whipsaw? Anyway, be wary this week. EURGBP looks to have done a local bottom, or if not very close to one. So this trade has no structure confirmation yet. Entering a long here for corrective move ABC up to the two target levels. Good luck!

QuercusTrading Updated 

On HTF, an ABCDE correction is completed, the last move being an Expanding Ending Diagonal. The deviation / throwover is not typical of this type of correction, but it still appears like it is going to materialise. On LTF (see next chart), price has also completed an ABCDE correction. This is more standard and looks like a wave 4. As with BTC, when the down...

QuercusTrading Updated 

This is one of the more sold off USD pairs for the past week. Completed Wave 5 of both HTF and LTF. Looking for price to correct towards the Wave 4's marked in blue. AUDUSD and NZDUSD are similar. I am taking NZD because the fact that it did not take out the 13 Dec low compared to AUD implies that NZD is stronger.

QuercusTrading

AUDCAD We got a Adam and Eve double top pattern. Retest of the neckline is probably done. Short to 200% measured move at 0.8713. Similar pattern on NZDCAD. Good luck.

QuercusTrading

Price did not tag Wave iv in Dec 2023, meaning there is a high chance of unfinished business down there. The strong move up has corrected to previous resistance (likely wave 4 or B) with a deviation. I am going with Wave B because quick moves like this looks like X. IMO, the deviation has already been triggered on lower time frame. Ripe for a short.

QuercusTrading

A lot of things about BTC is only clear in hindsight, so everyone is just predicting. If you study Elliott Wave, the waves have so far been very perfect because BTC is a math model, but it is very hard to do it in real-time is because corrections can get complicated. So at 48k, it is clear that price has retrace to the previous Wave 2. Unless we move up more, if...

QuercusTrading Updated 

Harami Cross on daily chart at S&R level. Simple setup which needs no explanation. Short on breakout of the Doji / inside bar low. Invalid above Wednesday high. No break, no trade. In case it is a consolidation. Good luck!

QuercusTrading Updated 

Happy New Year fellow traders! The market has a rather volatile start on the first week, which is good news. Not keen to touch USD pairs this week due to major events, so I am turning my interest to crosses instead. -------------------------- GBPAUD on HTF (Daily), price is currently at the previous Wave 4 range but did not test it (1.8500), so there is still...

QuercusTrading Updated 

This corrective wave is one of my favourite setups. Price has been overly extended to be form a expanding ending diagonal. I have been stopped out once due to the UK inflation news. Re-entering now with a more complete pattern and better SL position. The two short terms targets in blue. I have a much longer term target on the daily chart (see next post) but...