Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

This is very similar to a prior idea. Often the length of wave 5 in a EW movement is .38 of the entire span of points between the start of 1 and the conclusion of 3, about 100 points. Wave 4 ended at 1952 and if we add 38 points we get 2190. Stunning.

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Wave 5 frequently equals .618 x Wave 1............618 x 64 = 40. 1952 plus 40 = 1992. Plus, RSI rolled over.

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Momentum is to the upside with a falling VIX (black arrow), rising RSI and rising MA's

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

The market drifted lower overnight but not as far as I expected. In $SPX terms futures dropped to approximately 2108, around the top of wave 1 following the Brexit rout as noted by the flag At the open the market sat upon a secondary trend line which provided ample support to erase most of the losses experienced on Friday. And the soothing balm afforded by Fed...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Given the cool reaction to the ECB to essentially do nothing, uncertainty about BOJ policies and remarks by Gundlach that the Fed would likely hike rates in September, Friday’s steep selloff suggests that the market isn’t entirely prepared for a September rate increase when the Federal Reserve convenes Sept. 20-21. In the past two years there have been only 7...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

The pullback from 2179 to 2148 through extensions and retracements is still controlling events as seen in the green bar. And a double bottom at 2160/2161 suggest short term strength. Depending upon the NFPR to be released Friday, anything could happen but sooner or later I think we will get a decent correction given September’s history and assuming if enough fear...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Some believe the market put in an intermediate high (V) at 2194 but the sloppy price action following this possible high is less than convincing, suggesting another high is possible before a serious correction. Price has established a new channel and the green lines are prices of interest. 2188 ish, which is flagged, is particularly interesting, as it’s a both a...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

The prices which have been flagged are pretty self explanatory with the exception of 2212 which is a calculated pivot. At some point there will be an opportunity to short the market but I would not simply short a price; I would wait for red and for short term EMA's to rollover. Historically, the 38th, 39th and 40th week of the year have been the worst weeks for...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

As with any channel, the longer it takes the higher it must go to tag the overhead channel line

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

When 2202 is taken out, I will update my targets based upon the recent pullback and calculate new Fib extension targets. 2186/2187 appears to offering some resistance. In the EW blogoshpere, a minority think we are working on a corrective B which would take us to new high before C ends the party. Majority view is we are in intermediate 5 of a Major C. Either...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

It failed at .382.......................................2177.25 vs 2177.75 actual

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Over the weekend, I suggested we might go higher providing a number of conditions were met. So far, they have not been satisfied particularly a strong showing above 2177. Meanwhile, the market has formed a short term bearish wedge and inside the wedge an Alternate Bat may be forming which needs to reach point D..........on or ever so slightly above the...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

With right setup, may short gold Historically, there has been an inverse relationship.

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

The week before us is really difficult to call because of important data releases and statements from two major central banks. Anything could happen. But among the three high priests of EW theory I follow, most believe we experienced a negligible correction and are now in the fifth wave leading to a minor 5, a major III or something similar. 2175/2176 proved to...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

I still think the market want to tag 2177, a major EW pivot that has a long mathematical history. Should it break through 2177, recent trading between 2156 and 2169 gives us a target of 2190. I am itching to short this puppy, but VIX remains depressed at yearly lows. And it has shown in the past it can remain at depressed levels for considerable lengths of...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

After tagging 2174 in overnight trading early Wednesday, the market traded in 9 point range for the last 36 hours of the week with more red than green. Momentum has stalled just beneath the likely reversal zone published last Sunday and we have fallen below trend. The closing Doji-like candle on Friday suggests indecision. Some believe we are working on wave C,...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Similat to what was said Sunday but tweaked. 2174 was expected from a 2.618 expansion of a swing high and low. 2177 is major EW pivot and 2182 makes wave 5 equal to wave 1 though the count is getting very messy

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

The bottom of the area is of my making and is simply a 2.618 expansion of a major swing which lines up nicely with trend. The upper line is a product Tony Caldaro, a widely respected EW technician who publishes OEW And in the middle (2174) is a line developed by a gentleman who commented on one of my ideas with a simply outstanding chart. Today the market got...