QuantitativeExhaustion

QuantitativeExhaustion

The lack of market volatility stresses the market bears. Trading View does not offer the Elder weekly NH-NL, so I modified with what is offered. In this chart we have the NYSE weekly new lows and highs compared to the S&P 500 Index. Currently the NYSE HIGN is at 246, which is near an overbought signal. My line in the sand is HIGN 300 for an overbought market...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Chart Monthly bullish triangle is forming, and prices have managed to hold the 20-month simple moving average this week. Historically, the 20 SMA has been a very good support level - outside of the late-2008 correction that managed top hold the 40 SMA. RSI tends to bottom around the 50-level on these corrections - which is close to where it is at present. The...

QuantitativeExhaustion

American Science and Engineering (ASEI) is currently in a trading range for the past six week. Notice that volatility is contracting as the Bollinger Bands narrow. In particular, ASEI traded between 65.00 and 66.00 for the past 10 days, which is a very tight range for this volatile stock. ASEI only has a little more than 8 million shares outstanding. Watch these...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Chart compares both the SPY ETF with the DOW Transportations DOWT Index. Also includes correlation coefficient comparison.

QuantitativeExhaustion

For the most part, Euro and S&P have been positively correlated since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. Before the U.S. AAA debt rating cut, the break in the S&P in 2011 ended up falling hard. In 2011 Euro followed the S&P shortly after. I am a little concerned that both the current S&P and EUR/USD setup which is similar to the 2011 top. Notice how the price...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Breakaway Gaps starts a new trend and the gap often occurs on leaving a consolidation area, usually on high volume on the gap day, which can continue for several days. Price trends for several days. Look for a high volume gap and trade in the direction of the trend. The best performance comes from breakaway gaps in a bull market near the yearly high. In a bear...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Triple bottoms are somewhat rare chart patterns. That makes sense because three peaks seldom line up like soldiers at attention. They have a low break even failure rate and decent average rise in a bull market, giving them a solid performance rank. thepatternsite.com The Triple Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically there are three equal lows...

QuantitativeExhaustion

The price of gasoline isn’t one of the ten components of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) in the US. Nor is it included in the LEIs of the other major economies around the world. However, maybe it should be. That’s because rapidly rising gasoline prices led or coincided with all six recessions since 1973. It might be different this time because Fed...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Angie's List, Inc. (ANGI) has not added any value to its user experience since going public and it boasts a market cap of $670 million. Angie's Gross margins might look fantastic at 80%-plus, but with no explanation as to what really constitutes cost of sales. Angie's List has not posted a profit since founded in 1995 and last year lost $49 million. A recent law...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Coming up on 4 years since the March 06, 2009 low in US markets. Once again we are meeting the resistance line that proved to be very strong several times already. I'm still predicting a market correction (~ -20%) soon after the 4 year bull market anniversary, March 05, 2013.

QuantitativeExhaustion

Cautiously bullish first few months of 2013. United Stated continues can kicking. China buys Europe Currency Wars Heat Up www.bloomberg.com Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Tangent Capital Partner Senior Managing Director Jim Rickards talks about currency wars and his investment strategy. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Lunch Money." (Source: Bloomberg) How...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Apple is expected to report earnings on January 22, 2013. I believe a run-up in share price is very possible hitting the descending wedge upper resistance line. If Apple can prove to the business world they have there act together and are back on track we could see AAPL prices near 600. The true test for Apple is if they can reveal a new product that will wow...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Overall I see the Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern failing. I do however see the vertical ascending broadening wedge rising to 1.337. For 2013 I'm pricing a double bottom and a W recovery to continue throughout 2014.

QuantitativeExhaustion

The Bat (bullish) The harmonic bat pattern was discovered by Scott Carney in 2001. Carney maintains it is one of the most accurate patterns, and requires a smaller stop loss than most other patterns. Key features to look out for are: This is one of the retracement patterns (along with the Gartley Pattern) - and is a deep retest of Support (in the case of a...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Since 1993 IBM has been on a bull run. IBM bull run started out as a rising wedge pattern from late 1993 till about 1997. Irrational exuberance propelled the stock out of the wedge reaching a status of overbought (above upper purple line). The stock remained overbought for a few years until the Enron-World Com accounting scandals rocked the stock. IBM shares...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Chart suggest S&P momentum is running out. I'm not so sure after a kick the can plan on the fiscal cliff will result in a post 2008-09 market crash peak. Momentum measures the rate of change in closing prices and is used to detect trend weakness and likely reversal points. It is often underrated because of its simplicity. Short term (next 6-8 weeks) I'm not so...

QuantitativeExhaustion

In this chart we see that every bull market is shorter in length of time and every bear market becomes shorter in length of time as well. With higher highs and higher lows, the VIX continues to be more volatile with every secular bear market since the 1987 crash. Oil on the other hand has put in higher highs and higher lows since 9/11. With a limited and unsafe...

QuantitativeExhaustion

Watching the DOWT closely for signals when to buy sell overall market. Pattern looks like a (somewhat close) Symmetrical Triangle that busted out a bit too early. thepatternsite.com