*All time high ('ATH') on a Total Return basis (dividends reinvested) 1. SMI has rallied an incredible 4% month to date, 7% in 30 days. 2. 'ATH's are defined as a tops set and not surpassed for several quarters to years. 2. We distinguish between rallies below the 'ATH', and rallies above 'ATH'. 3.a. Rally to the 'ATH' (from below) can continue similar momentum...
Using 2 hour bars you can see 2017 performance and a regression channel that puts the steady rally higher into a relative context. Each time price reached its upper channel it pulled back within two weeks. The pullback is around 3%. But with 13000 a key level only 2% away, we could see a swift leg up before pulling. Idea; sell 3m calls at 13000 or set sell...
Instead of pulling back to 1.22 - which would be expected from a continued consolidation that started last October - GBP/USD is drawn to 1.25. Interesting that GBP/USD is currently negatively correlated with the US stock market, and has been since Trump’s election (bottom chart). Growing concerns with the US will favour GBP/USD, as too will concerns that...
With Price/Earnings of 9.3 Turkey is may be seen as good 'value' ...just ignore the other things like the impact of a failed coup, a weakening currency and a retreat by investors unnerved by political instability. That said, the market is buying, with MSCI Turkey up 11% this year, and testing its upper side of the trend channel. At $37 its looking to break,...
The Eurostoxx 50 is being to splutter.. the rally since the 8th February is slowing, and a very bearish divergence has formed since the 10th March. The lower high set today confirms that these stocks are looking tired. Our key support target is 3400.
The DAX has clearly broken its March rally in April, with lower highs proof of growing sellers. The break through of the blue support line indicates a lack of buyers, and this morning it switched from support to resistance.
This is not a cry to long VIX by any means, but it seems we are off the lows having had the lowest implied volatility in the first quarter of 2017 EVER recorded. Realized volatility was the lowest in 40 years. What is does tell us though is that the rally is fading, uncertainty growing, and the key level to watch is the fresh low set by the S&P500 week before last.
if GBPEUR breaks the upper trend channel shown and 1.2 (or consolidates between 1.18 and 1.2), this could mark the beginning of resurgent GBP. It appears likely this will coincide around the coming French elections...
Multi year lows were made in Jan-16 and the long-term reversal seems to have been confirmed Dec-17 as higher lows are established. Fundamentally gold miners have attractively priced PEs, are breakeven on gold spot prices, and provide an opportunity to hedge 2017-2018 inflation risk that Yellen has softly signalled. Entering long and buying down to 18.5, with a...
Short resistance at 12400 set back in April 2015. Allow a decent stop for volatility or an overshoot, and play down to 11400 for a 100 point move. Risk/reward 3.5:1
Daily cycles forming from each mid-morning session, key levels set at 2370 and 2360 - notice how price capped out at 2370 on Thurs and then Fri, and likewise stayed up twice from 2360. The red trend line may give some indication on whether the market wishes to break up or down. I see this as a good short entry.
GBP/USD and SPX are closely related. The chart comparison of SPX versus GBP/USD show a fairly negative correlation. This is odd, and unusual to history, because it implies that USD is positively correlated with the SPX. Its a strange situation where rate hikes are interpreted as 'good' for the market. With this in mind, a sell-off in SPX would undermine the...
Details on the Chart. The higher low is bullish, with the market behaving as though 1.25 is fair value, and reflects the most traded level over 6 months. My view is balanced on whether the resistance trend line is broken or not (orange line): There is a higher probability that price moves lower from this resistance based on history since Dec-16. However, if...
Further downside likely: Price is fading and losing momentum on the higher lows these last two days. Support at 2345 looks stressed. 2360 is key resistance and is establishing a downward trend - definitely watch how price behaves on a rally 2353. Key notes on the chart.
Bearish Divergence using the 14 Day RSI to highlight price making higher highs with declining momentum. Ok it would have been early (ie wrong) to call this on the 26th January, and again on the 22nd February, but that only supports this bearish view even more (... path dependency is everything!). Risk position: Short DAX with a stop at 12160. 12160 should be...
The classic 3 wave pattern has completed, with an unusually regular cycle of 4 months for each stage. With demand exhausted a pullback is highly possible, and my outlook to expect a substantial fall over the next 4 months. Elliott Wave is perhaps the least understood despite showing up across all markets and all time frames. It essentially explains the path of a...
If you're already short (I have been explaining why I was short last week) then holding a little longer may be fruitful - the price consolidating at this low of 2338 is telling of a further sell-off. It tells me the market is still in shock from this rapid sell-off yesterday, with a bid temporarily propping up prices. Non-professional investors will likely...
Earlier charts showwe initiated a short at 2390. Our bearish view holds for these reasons: 1. 13th Feb to 13th Mar S&P500 traded in a short-term trend (blue dotted) that was diverging from its Relative prices (the RSI below). 2. On the 7th Mar it broke this trend, and the same trend turned from support to resistance. This was clearest at 2390 on the 13th. 3....