MVedra

MVedra

Euro interest rates are negative and the curve remains flat with no end in sight. This is destructive to net interest margin and the sustainability of European banks. Investors are stepping away from bank shares, having sold throughout 2018 and prices are back to 2009, 2012, and 2016 levels. European banks sector is now heading for a break to multi-year lows. ...

MVedra Updated 

Coffee Futures fall today below 100, to 97.25, not seen since 2006. Producers, according to the CFTC COT reports, are net long some 80,000 contracts, an all-time high. These extremes in positioning are accurate contrarian signals, presenting a opportunity to bet on a rebound in future coffee prices over the next 6 month.

MVedra

Low 29th October Establishes a 2 week cycle low Next cycle low end of this week Reversal established when index gapped above 7071 on 7/11 Double bottom (pullback) at 50% retracement off the reversal 31st October opening gap now filled The combination of these factors signal a bullish rebound.

MVedra Updated 

Last week I was cautiously optimistic that the EuroStoxx would move higher to 3500, and possibly break from there to complete the mini (inverted) head and shoulders that can be identified since the 30th October 2017. However this week's action adds to a more bearish, alternative path. The blue support zone is a loosely defined price range of significance; this...

MVedra

Today’s session saw the Nikkei close above 23,000 for the first time since the January sell-off. The chart below shows the Nikkei well positioned for a rally. Note: a) 3 higher lows b) the index on the right side of a long-term uptrend, and c) the first close higher above a 7 month resistance (the break). This specific setup offers a good risk-reward: Entry now...

MVedra

The EEM ETF is showing some signs that the worst is behind us. Firstly, the market has made a double-bottom, first fall on the 22nd June, and then the second last week on the 15th August. Double-bottoms flush out the weaker hands, who tried to pick the bottom in June. Empirically markets are more likely to rally following the second capitulation. Secondly,...

MVedra

Are financials rolling over? The financial sector ETF XLF, and regional bank ETF KRE are moving back down to their 12 month lows. The cause is likely lower interest rate hike expectations and government yields. Caution ahead for September's weak season.

MVedra Updated 

Pilgrim's Pride fall from grace came following a proposed securities class action alleging the poultry giant concealed a price-fixing scheme with other broiler chicken companies, that resulted in a stock price plunge when revealed. The case is Hogan v. Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation et al, case number 1:16-cv-02611, US District Court of Colorado. The fall is complete...

MVedra Updated 

This is ugly. AUDUSD is for a fourth time, bearing down on its trending channel, a key trend established back in 2015 when Commodities bottomed out. This isn't a good sign for a (supposedly) reflating global economy..

MVedra

Morgan Stanley, Bank Of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan - all exhibiting similar year to date behaviour. The whole sector is rolling over, reversing the 2017 rallies as the yield curve remains flat, and possibly set to invert. JPMorgan and Bank Of American look particularly bad.. notice both are just managing to hold up above a clear 6 month support. I would bet...

MVedra Updated 

The descending triangle started in January, is coming to a pivotal point. Today's break lower is a warning that next week could a significant move lower.

MVedra

The EURUSD steady decline is likely to be halted at the next major support of 1.16. 1.16 is a clear supply zone, and marks the border between 2015-2017 regime, and todays. Buy limit 1.16 with a target of 1.20. 1.20 will also marks a 50% retracement.

MVedra Updated 

Support held prices above 12,000. Resistance likely to be found at 12,750 which marks the floor pre February sell-off, and the high last April i.e. a key trading level. The 12,750 would also be the 50 Day MA if met within the next two weeks. With the level then back in-line with the 50 Day MA, it would no longer be oversold.

MVedra Updated 

Here is a fun (and ambitious) call for all three trade elements - price, direction, AND timing of the DAX - here goes! 1. 11900 is the recent support, and now the floor for a head & shoulders pattern clearly forming 2. 12900 is the key resistance level; that is the high of the 'left shoulder', and the floor when prices were trading at the 'head'. If a 'right...

MVedra Updated 

Using hourly data back to 2017 the USDJPY is showing a clear shift in trend; the downward channel broke in April for the first time this year. The moving average just highlights how Monday's brief selloff acted as a pullback to a trend reversal to the upside. While the trade war may be negative for the USD in the long-run, the USD is normally the safest asset...

MVedra

Four keys pieces of information to consider: The COT reports show that Commercials have never been this short, using current prices to lock-in these levels and hedge out future production. This extreme is a signal that prices are nearing peak short-term. Simultaneously Saudi Arabia has stated that they are actively targeting $80 a barrel. If Shale switches...

MVedra Updated 

The EURUSD has gone nowhere since the end of 2017; notice 1.225 is the key trading level and support. The poor performance of European stocks in 2018 has perhaps been surprising; the market has lost its conviction about the coordinated global growth that dominated 2017 sentiment. The price clearly reflects investors confusion; on the one hand is an...

MVedra

Steadily rallying into the $70 key resistance that marked the May-15 and Jan-18 highs. The resistance at $70 would mark a level that investors are taking profits at, and hedgers are happy to sell forward. This creates an artificial hold on prices, which will end in a move higher with $80 a target.