GustavFourie96

GustavFourie96 Updated 

The rand has held up resiliently against the dollar during this recent patch of geopolitical tension largely due the rise in commodity prices, particularly precious metals. Risk-assets, such as equities and the rand, received strong bids following the Fed rate hike and going forward I don't see the rand depreciating rapidly from further Fed rate hikes as the year...

GustavFourie96

The pair gapped up to open today above the 50-day MA (15.40) which is rand negative. A weekly close above 15.46 (38.2% Fibo) and back inside the blue channel could see the rand weaken towards 15.80 (61.8% Fibo) and test the longer-term downward trendline from the highs in April 2020. Entering overbought zones on the stochastic but the RSI still has a lot of room...

GustavFourie96 Updated 

The rand has pulled the pair below the upward blue channel and I'm prepared to call for a confirmed channel break. The pair is however trading in oversold ranges which could add some strength to the psychological support rate of 15.00 and 14.88. Over the slightly longer-term, I'm expecting the rand to pull the pair to 14.50 (61.8% fibo retracement rate). A close...

GustavFourie96 Updated 

The rand seems to be holding steadily following the past two weeks of Fed noise and Friday's non-farm payroll print. The US 10-year treasury yield spiked rapidly after the payrolls print, roughly 4.37% to 1.912 which allowed the DXY to gain some strength. The key resistance rate for continued rand weakness in my opinion remains at 15.64388 (the 38.2% Fibo...

GustavFourie96

January closing rates to watch for the rand: S=15.38 R=15.64 The rand is trading resiliently this week and seems to be holding the pair below the 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 15.64 and the psychological rate of 15.50. Another weekly close below 15.38, the peak of the first wave back in Aug 2021, may invalidate the 5-wave impulse in the blue channel from May...

GustavFourie96

The rand has performed solidly since the start of the year mostly due to Powell's less hawkish stance in his testimony earlier this week and more liquidity entering the market. Yesterday's US CPI print for the month of December, which came in at 0.5% m-o-m down from 0.8% in November, saw the DXY drop 0.62% which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the support...

GustavFourie96 Updated 

The weekly close below 15.65 last week is rand positive heading into 2022. The next support I'm watching is 15.50. A break below 15.50 will allow the rand to pull the pair lower towards the bottom of the orange medium term channel between 15.16 and 15.30 (or the 100 day MA at 15.23) Fundamentally however the Feds expected March rate hike will be dollar positive...

GustavFourie96

The DXY failed to hold levels above the 50% Fibo level of 96.071 after oscillating in the blue range since November 2021. A break below the black trendline could allow for a move towards 94.440 (38.2% Fibo level).

GustavFourie96

Prices below $40k were gobbled up quickly today. A failed close above $42k could see BTC drop to $37750. A close above $42k could however be an early sign that the bottom may be in. Technically, on the daily timeframe we are sitting in the oversold range on the RSI but there may be a death-cross looming if BTC drops below the red range. Fundamentally, fresh...

GustavFourie96

A re-test of 16.36 may be on the table as the month progresses. Key support to watch remains on 15.66, a break below could allow for a move towards the 50-day MA of 15.32.

GustavFourie96 Updated 

The pair flew to the 50% Fibo retracement level of 16.37 last week Friday following some fresh virus FUD. A daily close above the critical resistance rate of 16.37 will confirm a channel break out of the longer-term orange channel and send the pair higher towards the 71.8% Fibo rate of 17.07. The pair is however trading in heavily overbought ranges on the RSI and...

GustavFourie96

Critical support = $60 Critical resistance = $87.25 Still neutral but leaning towards a break above $87.25, let's wait what OPEC has to say today.

GustavFourie96

Looking for a move towards 1.15 (50% fibo retracement rate) as it seems there was a failed break below 61.8% fibo rate. DXY also struggling to hold levels above 96.00: s3.tradingview.com

GustavFourie96 Updated 

The golden cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA is a long-term buy signal and possibly the start of a fresh impulse wave higher. The daily MACD has also recently crossed to a buy signal after the pair closed above the psychological 15.00 barrier earlier this week. A daily close above the current yearly high of 15.28 could be an early sign of another leg...

GustavFourie96 Updated 

BTC futures will close today which could allow for one more shake out towards the 38.2% Fibo retracement level around $53725 following yesterday's failed break above $59615. The RSI is also driving into a wedge near the oversold range and looks set to rise from the bottom of the current upward channel. USDT dominance looks set to fall further which is also...

GustavFourie96 Updated 

Crude looks ripe for a minor pullback before hitting $100 p/b

GustavFourie96 Updated 

Precious metal prices are under pressure, the pair is on the border of the overbought zone on the RSI and the MACD seems to be rolling over.

GustavFourie96

Markets will be hanging on the lips of the Fed on Wednesday and I expect another weak NFP's report on Friday. The DXY can go either way from here but I'm keeping an eye on the US 10 year yield. If it fails to hold its current channel I'll be getting my dollar shorts ready before another set of weak NFP's data on Friday. A failed break above 94.440 will see the...