High spreads between US10Y - DE10Y and US05Y - DE05Y, Can indicate some more downside risk for the euro. There is also some hidden divergence marked with green lines. European money is flowing into less riskier assets, as EU economic forecast have been slashed, while some banks are saying that the german economy is headed for a recession which is one of the...
Last couple of times we have had this tight spread between US05Y and US02Y a mayor decline in the S&P followed Before the declines, we saw some increase in volatility. The same kind of volatility happened last year. Could we see a mayor decline, or a correction this year, or will the S&P just keep moving up? Global growth forecast have been slashed across the...
SNB have cited multiple times, that they are not afraid of intervening their currency. According to SNB, the CHF is highly valued and there could be something about the talk. But With brexit around the corner + italy budget crises, CHF could be lifted even more. on top of that, some German banks cited that Germany have higher risk of entering a recession....
Comparing US financials with the EU financials. Have DBK on the rader for a long position.
If SPX is moving higher, i will be looking at a Short position in gold. The same apply to the the declining price of the SPX, i will be looking for call positions for gold. Levels to look for here is the 1350-1360, 1280 - 1300. Right now, i see a fall in risk appetite, and therefore a rise in gold. Waiting for the right timing to enter a long position on...
Russian GDP annual growth rate is expected to come out February 1 with an increase of 0,70% from 1,50% to 2,20% while GDP in April is expected to fall into a 2,10% growth rate, Agricultural GDP is almost at 2017 levels, and will likely contribute to a stronger ruble. Manufacturing and construction GDP is also inching for a strong growth rate this year. Exports is...
Increased spread between Germany 10-year bond yield vs Japan 10-year yield could indicate a slide in the Euro against the Yen. Even though the yield is higher for European bund, the risk appetite is declining, while the global economy is projected to have a slow growth rate through out 2019. This means that investors seek safe heaven assets like the Yen and JP10...
China Q4 GDP Growth is expected to be at the slowest pace since 2009 at 6,4% YoY. This will probably also drag AUD down because of the high export to China. Meanwhile the Australian rate will be unchanged for quite a bit, where the Housing market index is also due to fall over the curs of 2019. Australian Housing market have been rallying for long time, Now the...
Overall there is bad data out for U.S. and the Euro zone. The bad data might not stop yet as we will be continuing seeing bad economic data in 2019 as global growth slow down. USD and JPY is known as safe heaven, and could be the reason we have seen large moves in the JPY over the past couple of weeks. U.S 30 year mortgage rate declined to 4,75% and could give...
Technical: Wave 3 within the 5 wave count is extended to a 5 wave count, Where the total count gives a 9 wave structure and a 13 wave structure counting the a,b,c in. 13 waves is the same as 9 wave structure which is also the same as a 5 wave structure. All the Fibonacci levels is fulfilled with the wave count. Fundamentals: The trade war is fully ongoing, and...
We have 5 minor waves followed by correctional waves, and a correctional broadening triangle with minuette correctional a,b,c pattern, where wave c has a 5 wave ending diagonal. The fibonacci levels is matching the waves criteria, and the waves is therefore validated. Fundamentals. overall the US economy is showing signs of slowing. GDP growth rate is expected...
Ascending broadening wedge is under construction where Intermediate wave (5) is still to be completed. The price have challenged a downward trend channel, also functioned as correctional minute waves for impulse wave (3) and minute wave ((v)). Price wins this time over the trend channel, and a break is confirmed, while a pullback to testing the trend channel could...
Rising wedge is under construction, where price could go down to 1.17150 - 1.17250 before completing the impulse minute wave ((v)) While a break of the 1.17150 - 1.17250 levels could be a break of the wedge and price could continue its downfall and test level 1.16760. If the price breaks 1.16760 more downfall could come where next support will be at...
Let's start with the starting point in my analysis, at february 2016, where we had an increase of 49,15% of the price. this was a long term bull run, that continued until april 2017. afterwards the price started to react to the bull run, and wanted to make a correction, price failed to do so, and we got a new all time high, where we actually have been in a range...
Fibonacci is drawn from minor wave 5 to minute wave ((i)) On the 4 hour chart we have minor, minute and minuette waves with additional correctional waves. Right now the price is moving in the minor correctional waves, after ending wave 5 at the last low at level 1.15193 Inside the correctional waves we have minute waves and minuette waves. in the uptrend we...
the price is in a uptrend and have constructed higher highs and higher lows. on the chart we have a minute waves where wave ((iv)) is completed and the price is ready to move another leg up. if the price beaks the 0.89690 it could go back to testing the 0.89180 level and invalidate the current technical analysis. a cup and handle formation is also formed with...
On the chart we see a minuette and subminuette wave, where the minuette waves have enden wave (v) which is also 1,38 on fibonacci drawn from 0 to (iii) the last minuette leg (v) with subminuette waves have an extended wave v. if the price fails to break 76.500 we could see an extension of minuette and subminuette waves v. The price target is 76.317. a break of...
If the price fails to break the current level at 1.7912, the price will break a descending triangle where the abcd pattern will be invalid, and a 5 wave sequence will be active, where 1.88300 will be the end of intermediate wave (5). if we look at the RSI, a bullish hidden divergence have occurred. ( keep in mind that the RSI leg can be extended, before a trend...