Russian GDP annual growth rate is expected to come out February 1 with an increase of 0,70% from 1,50% to 2,20% while GDP in April is expected to fall into a 2,10% growth rate, Agricultural GDP is almost at 2017 levels, and will likely contribute to a stronger ruble. Manufacturing and construction GDP is also inching for a strong growth rate this year. Exports is at 2013 levels and have increased from January 2018 to November 2018 with 20,44%. Increases in export are expected to hold its momentum and increase throughout 2019, giving Russia a positive trade surplus. Higher oil prices is also contributing to the GDP growth. Consumer confidence is at -17.. While consumer spending is almost at its highest. Disposable income is at 0,10% and is expected to rise by 0,40% this year. Retail sales advanced 2,60% in 2018 compared with 1,30% increase in 2017. Retail sales is expected to rise modestly in 2019. Wages and living wages have increased in 2018. Unemployment rate is at historically lows since mid 2018.
Overall, i see Ruble to gain this year against the Dollar. Holding shorts, and will increase position when/if break of 64,400, 62,750, and 61,000 if we reach that far :) i will be looking at hedge opportunities.
Keep in mind that Russia is still a risky trade, with sanctions imposed from U.S. and Europe. So, the whole think could turn against me. But from the fundamental perspective, i see a bullish ruble.
TradingView does not provide data from RU10YT. But if you can find the data, then compare it with US10YT and you would see a that spreads are narrowing between those. This could indicate more demand for the Russian 10-year bond as the yield is decreasing.
Overall, i see Ruble to gain this year against the Dollar. Holding shorts, and will increase position when/if break of 64,400, 62,750, and 61,000 if we reach that far :) i will be looking at hedge opportunities.
Keep in mind that Russia is still a risky trade, with sanctions imposed from U.S. and Europe. So, the whole think could turn against me. But from the fundamental perspective, i see a bullish ruble.
TradingView does not provide data from RU10YT. But if you can find the data, then compare it with US10YT and you would see a that spreads are narrowing between those. This could indicate more demand for the Russian 10-year bond as the yield is decreasing.