Finchcliffe

Finchcliffe Updated 

We could be a kicking off the week with a lot of GBP movement if there is a new trade deal reached between the UK and Europe over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Today, Dominic Raab (the UK Deputy PM) told the BBC that the 'UK is on the cusp' of securing a new Brexit deal on Northern Ireland. I'm also seeing GU decline slowing and possibly at the end of it's...

Finchcliffe

Pretty decent RR here, based on great level of support, and DXY slow down. Even though everything about USD is positive (consistent green fundamental data, likely avoiding recession, hawkish FOMC attitude to interest rates), it's still not firing - this tells me it's already over-priced. I'm going long on GOLD, Buy 1810, SL 1788, TP 1946, RR 1:6.3

Finchcliffe Updated 

As we see the DXY continue to push up thanks to the fundamentals and potent9ial for a 0.5% rate hike, I'm expecting this pair to continue to push up. Key fundamentals out of Japan this week with inflation data on Thursday, there's also a speech on Friday by incoming Governor Ueda, not expecting policy comment, but if we get some it will likely have an impact on...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Purely based on the general performance of the two currencies. NZD has been very weak, we can see commodity prices falling and this looks set to continue. I believe we have a double top and the neckline is broken, so expecting a continuation to the downside this week.

Finchcliffe Updated 

Where the ECB is being hawkish on rate hikes and has room for manoeuvre, the RBA is trying to be hawkish, but has less room due to low consumer sentiment / general backlash due to the increasing costs due to interest rates - it also seems as though inflation may have peaked, we'll find out soon enough if it's stabilising... In terms of price action, we look to...

Finchcliffe Updated 

We're in a long-term down trend, so I am overall bearish on this, not seen a huge amount to change my bias in recent weeks. We may have a double top which coincides with the 50% fib retracement from the last impulse move down, certainly a strong rejection just below a previous 4Hr high. I'm waiting until the next lower low (around 0.636) to maybe get in, SL...

Finchcliffe

I've mapped XAUUSD (top) against DXY (bottom) to clearly show the almost perfect negative correlation. DXY is more extreme in it's movements, as highlighted in the recent candles. I'm expecting further strength for DXY this week, especially as FOMC speakers are all hawkish and the market is expecting a 0.5% rate hike. If this is correct then Gold will have no...

Finchcliffe

With public holiday's in both USA and Canada tomorrow, I expect a quiet start to the week for this pair. On Tuesday it's Canada CPI which has been falling. Bank of Canada have just paused its rate rises as it expects inflation to come down to around 3% by mid-year and 2% in 2024, so if inflation continues to fall this should be negative for the CAD. On the...

Finchcliffe

We've seen recent strength from JPY in preparation for the announcement of a new Governor, with nominations expected in the next few days. The currency rose this past week when it was 'leaked' that Kazuo Ueda could become the next Governor, and this could lead to a change in monetary policy. Anyone following me will note I'm weak on GBP and generally bullish on...

Finchcliffe

I'm still expecting the bullish pullback (to around 106), or full reversal confirmation on DXY. This looks like it could be a bull flag to me... If it is, I'll be expecting a breakout soon, or a retracement back to 102.4 (0.5 fib of this impulse) and then up and out, either way 'up'. With Gold falling as it is and AUD failing to move much after positive...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Euro Pound has been super messy of late, but after last week's respective Central Bank news and immediate future stance, I think it'll be a clean bullish continuation from here. ECB hiked rates by 0.50% last week and said there will likely be the same next time out. BoE also hiked by 0.50% but were much more dovish in their statement. I think it's pretty clear...

Finchcliffe

I thought I'd share my experience with other New Traders (I'm still 'new', 2yrs in). I made all the classic mistakes and plenty more, my learning is only just beginning. Hopefully this educational post helps others new to trading. Use a Stop Loss So many times I didn't use a Stop Loss. One of the main reasons was I kept getting Stopped Out and then the price...

Finchcliffe

I'm thinking that AUD pairs will drop if the RBA either meet the expected 0.25% rate hike, or it's lower than this, as 0.25% should already be priced in. I'm not expecting a hike above 0.25% when the decision is announced this Tuesday at 3.30am GMT. Looking at the price action, I think we'll either see a big move down, or a bounce from the support area, which...

Finchcliffe

Price Action is suggesting that CADJPY will continue it's move up to again retest the ascending dynamic trendline that it's been bouncing around since the end of last year. Looking at CADWCU and JPYWCU, CAD is looking bullish to me with a pinbar on the 1D time-frame, JPYWCU on the other hand has broken an ascending trendline (1D) to the downside and has just...

Finchcliffe

If you believe, like I do, that DXY is retracing (or maybe reversing), then it stacks up that Gold will follow a negatively correlated path. On the 4hr we've seen a bearish engulfing candle and have already broken the 4hr trendline, we quickly retraced back before strong rejection to the downside. I believe we'll see short term strength to mirror DXY retracement,...

Finchcliffe

Short looking good for this pair. I'm expecting a retrace back-up to the ascending dynamic trendline, then down to the previous low, retrace and then if we can break the neckline of the previous low a drop down to at least 1.165, but with the H&S I expect a bigger move, probably down to 1.137 area.

Finchcliffe

I believe we'll see a drop in AUD against pairs this week, following the RBA Interest Rate Decision (Tuesday 7th Feb, 3.30am UK time). Fundamentally, inflation is about where RBA believe it will peak. RBA don't like to hike rates, a 0.25% increase is expected, which I expect is already priced in. This should mean that if the rate doesn't change on Tuesday, or is...

Finchcliffe

After the positive US news yesterday USDJPY broke out of the descending parallel channel it had been in for the past 12 weeks. I believe DXY is due either a retracement from its current impulse (back to around 107.4 (0.5 fib), or it will indeed completely reverse up based on fundamentals. If this is the case then UJ's breakout will likely become a big move to the...