Finchcliffe

Finchcliffe Updated 

I'm looking to buy again, I don't think we've seen the top, we're still miles off an ATH. With JPY still weak, Oil strong (which gives CAD strength), and a bullish engulfing candle on the 4hr (and a pinbar almost complete) I think we've had a 50% retracement of the last impulse and now back up. It would be great for this 4hr candle to close above the previous...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Been watching Gold for days, trying to work things out. I think we'll see another push up from DXY following FOMC hawkishness last night, it's dancing around the 50% Fib retracement from the last move, this would be positive for gold. With gold, I think we just got a local double top, but generally struggling at current levels, after failing to make a new high,...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Expecting a fall this week in the US30, indicated by RSI divergence. I'm also expecting USD strength which normally negatively affects the Dow, and would support this idea. We're coming up to tough resistance, we're over-bought on the LTF's (1 - 8hrs), so I'm expecting a retracement to 33600 (first target), a break of this level would confirm a local double top...

Finchcliffe Updated 

I'm expecting a retracement from this pair soon. it's massively over-bought, that said I think it will push up to just past 110 to meet resistance before it does. I've got my alerts set at 110. Being over-bought is not a determining factor, we can see that recent previous high levels were more overbought than they are now, before retracement. I can also see that...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Maintaining my shorts on this pair with validation coming from the 50EMA (turquoise) crossing the 100EMA (white) which forms a death cross in the 4hr time frame. GBPUSD has failed to make a new higher high and so I'm expecting a push down to the recent low, we may break this immediately, or retrace back to the descending trendline that's now formed. We're making...

Finchcliffe Updated 

I'm expecting further strength for the Aussie this week, and weakness from the Yen against it, so I'm looking for a long. We may fall-back to the 38.2 fib but then I think we'll see a strong move upwards, breaking out of the bull flag. We've seen this retracement as the pair became over-bought, but we now seem clear for a continuation upwards. I'm keeping a...

Finchcliffe

Gold has been on a retracement since the May 4th high. At the end of last week it broke but failed to close below the 61.8 fib of the last impulse move up, this is an interesting level as it may indicate the retracement is done? To the upside though we have a falling dynamic trendline that's acted as resistance since the early May peak. That peak at 2066 matches...

Finchcliffe

I think we may see a continuation pattern to the upside, maintaining the dynamic trendline. I'm expecting USD strength this week looking at DXY, and NZD remaining vulnerable. Even though NZD performed better at the end of last week, I still expect this cross to grow to the resistance where we may well see a double top and reversal. I'm looking for an entry point...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Tough times for the USD; the market didn't buy Powell's hawkish attempt, ECB went as expected and Dixie has plummeted today. I do think the USD crosses will get a breather retracement tomorrow, so we could see a bounce off the rising trendline on HTF's. If we break the wedge to the upside then this could lead to a higher low and could signal a reversal with a...

Finchcliffe Updated 

These are just my ideas, what I’m expecting, and why, with this week’s the big fundamentals. Overview Big market-moving news this week with Wednesday’s UK CPI, Thursday’s BoE Interest Rate Decision and Forecast, there is also FED Powell’s testimony in between the UK events on Wednesday. Several things could play out with the UK news, which is what my scenarios...

Finchcliffe Updated 

As the USD builds momentum, and XXXUSD UDDXXX crosses come under pressure, I'm especially interested in EUR that was slammed across the board last week. We smashed down through the 109 level so I'm expecting a retracement to that level and then a push lower. to around the 1.075 level. This is a 1:6 Trade, good odds for me. For me recent EUR strength has been...

Finchcliffe

I've been closely monitoring current LTF price action and about to go short on this pair. We've retested last weeks broken dynamic support, and running out of steam right now. I'm seeing DXY continuing to grow, to at least 105 in the coming week or so. BoE hawkish sentiment, failure to get inflation under control, despite hikes gives the mark no confidence, and...

Finchcliffe

Mega bearish on EUR at the moment and I think we'll continue to see EURCHF slide. Here's my ideas, plan A and plan B both resolve at a TP of 0.967 but I think we'll break through the demand zone and head down to 0.957, which is a 1:6 trade. Last week the Euro was the worst performing G10 currency in my analysis, we can see USD strengthening (which indicates risk...

Finchcliffe

I'm more confident than ever that the USD is going to grow from here, at least to 105, and then let's see. There's loads of scare mongering (and I believe it is just that) around the US debt ceiling (I do not believe that either political side will allow the US to default, at all - loads of fud about insurance policy sales on the increase to hedge against this -...

Finchcliffe

I think we're possibly seeing signs of a DXY reversal in the making. USD performing better against some crosses this week (NZD / JPY), others failing to make new highs (GBP / EUR). CHF is smashing all at the moment, so interesting to see how this does against the USD this week (if it falls then this gives me even more confirmation). I've seen RSI divergence on...

Finchcliffe Updated 

I'm short on GBP USD, it's failed to make a new high, failed to break back above the dynamic ascending trendline. Inflation is still high, despite rate hikes. Economy is in a pickle, with really poor retail data today. UK is the worst performing economy in Europe. There's RSI divergence. We're on a longer term downward trend so if this is to be broken I think...

Finchcliffe

Looking back over this pair, it's been ranging for a long time. The candlestick patterns are clearly showing rejection, we now have a doji to back up the change of direction potential. Fundamentally it seems hat it doesn't matter how good the US news is, the dollar's fate is sealed. Interesting to see how NFP goes on Friday (but still can't see it getting much...

Finchcliffe

Spotted a nice move here, we've broken through and retested resistance (now support), whilst respecting the long term dynamic trendline on the daily. I'm going to get involved with this 5:1 opportunity. I don't expect JPY to be weak for too much longer so I'll be watching this one closely!