Here are the key support levels that I see for the NASDAQ. You can see that this morning we are testing both the support of the down channel and the 0.7 fib retracement. Hope would be that we see a rally today. If not and this causes panic, we could drop down to the lower fib levels of 1, 1.2, etc. You can see how well they line up with the price action from 2020,...
Several of the key trading channels that I see in the Nasdaq. If they are right, then it is currently hovering just at the center line of the channel created by the dot com bubble. Hopefully we will find some support here, but if not, then there is still a ways to fall to the bottom of the blue channel.
An update on the trading channels that I see in the S&P. The December ATH tested resistance of both the blue channel that has it roots in the great depression and 50-60's and the black channel that is rooted in the housing market crash. We now see the S&P correcting down to test the purple channel from 2015. Looking at the cRSI on the weekly, even with all of the...
Weakness this past week has brought the S&P down to test support for the green channel. A good finish to mega cap earnings this week could keep us in the channel. It is not obvious how high we could go, but we could get a good bounce and tread water until the next earnings period. However, any more average or worse earnings will send this thing lower down to at...
Short of a miracle, it sure looks to me as if the mega cap stocks that fueled this 2 year rally have lost their fuel and are head down, and possibly in a big way this year. The trading channels are very clear for this ETF. You can see where they lost the steeper bull channel, retested it, and now has lost it (likely for good). 1W 1D 4h
Looking at the 2 major channels for the S&P 500 (note this is on VOO which is a few dollars off of SPY or IVV, but trends are same), you can see that it is currently below the blue channel that it has used over the last few years. I pointed out the obvious places where it has used if for support. IMO, if the S&P below this channel this week, then a lot more...
Two main trading channels at play right now. Friday was a test of support for the black channel. Good news is that the black channel held but it has broken back into the purple channel. IMO, if we close next week below the black channel support, then there is more downside. Once we are in the purple channel, there is a long way down that we could see over the...
An interesting comparison between the nasdaq (log) and the number of stocks in the nasdaq above the 200 day average. It seems to me that any time the number drops to 30 or less (into the red channel), then within the coming months continues to correct further until only 7-12 stocks are above the 200 day average. It looks like this last around 1-2 months before it...
This morning QQQ broke down out of its recent up trend channel from mid-March (blue channel). You can see that it has also just barely broken back down into the purple channel and testing support for the black channel, which it did previously in mid-March. You can also see that it is currently finding support on the mid-line of the red down channel. This is...
FYSA, SPYG tracks teh top 50 largest securities in the S&P 500. Holds 5 of the 6 FAAMNG stocks, which accounts for 39% of the ETF. I laid out what I see as the 4 main channels for SPYG. It is clearly obvious that it the current trend is way above the trend from both the 2002-2008 and 2010-2019. You can see the 2020-22 rally was an extension of a trend that...
Looking back at the correction since 2015, I think it is still plausible that we are not done correcting yet. Right now, to me it looks like it is similar to 2015-2016 correction, which would mean we slowly work sideways and down until it collapses. It also has some of the characteristics of the 2018 correction, but just scaled up. Close up of corrections using...
Just something that I drew up. If true, the major rally last year was all about the market regaining the previous 2016 channel. It looks possible that the NASDAQ has now lost the channel and trading in the 2019 channel. No impossible, but seems hard to believe that we will regain the higher channel with too much headwind. Could easily stay in the current channel...
You can see that the S&P is currently testing the regression channel from the 2020 low. If it can retake this channel, then the bull market is back in action and the last few months were your chance to buy the dip. If this week cannot close above, then the most likely outcome will be a new lower low (likely the 400 range). I tested this theory by using the...
When they say don't fight the fed, I am pretty sure this chart explains why. The massive growth of the S&P over the last 2 years is perfectly correlated to the Fed's unprecedented financial manipulation. Let's all hope that it does not come crashing down just as fast. It will be a miracle for the Fed to engineering a "soft landing" after such reckless policy for...
A look at the trading channels for QQQ since 2003. You can see the recent low was a test of the lower order channel and price is back up into the highest channel. 1W 4h Possible down channel
Just remember that as retail investors we are just following the wake of the whales and swimming with the sharks. 3m resolution
Because it is sitting on top of the trading channel that it defined since the turn of the 20th century. The only time that the S&P broke above this channel was the dot com bubble. That is a pretty ominous sign if you ask me. The good news is that the S&P is still inside the blue channel that started in 2009. 1D 4h 2h
I see a possible large ABC correction made up of a 1) expanded flat and now 2) a zig zag. See notes on chart. If this is accurate, then we could still drop as low as 3850. There is a gap on April 5, 2021 that has yet to be filled. The correction I am estimating would make that happen. The other orange line shows where the S&P jumped above the trading channel...