The price of Gold has complex relationships with Stock Markets and the US-Dollar (among other things). In the screencast I point out some of the complexities looking back to 2007-2009. This is relevant to the current situation with Gold.
I'm looking at a possible triple top on EURAUD on the 3D time frame. I do this because I'm looking for position and then to trail down on a lower time frame. There is some weakening of the 3D time frame trend and the critical zone at the peak probably creates a greater probability for the south.
I assess the probability as for the south on GBPNZD. How far south is another problem, for me at least, as me crystal ball broke a long time ago. :)
In this screencast, I review my ideas on luck, chance and risk. I do not depend on luck, hope or targets in my trading. This has appeared rather strange to some I've been in contact with recently. I say that sensible trading for consistent profitability cannot depend on luck. Yes - it involves taking carefully risk-assessed chances and controlling loss. I...
Dear fellow traders, In this screencast I focus on the form of market fluctuations in 2007-ish and compare with what we are seeing in 2018. Reference this screencast against my previous screencast of 24th Dec 2018, on the PPT. The key points match fairly closely in the overall form . Strangely, the recent rebound is so telling of a story. What's that? This...
The VIX is known as the 'fear index'. It has taken a pulse north which is not unexpected, as volatility on the P SPX500 took a leap recently. The VIX is not an index I trade, nor do I know anyone who trades it. Its value is in keeping a finger on the 'pulse' of the stock market. When the VIX begins to pulse, expect trouble. Some see trouble only after it has happened.
That the Plunge Protection Team has been called in means there is big trouble! The PPT is a real lawful entity designed to manipulate the US Stock Markets. It is officially known as the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM). It was created by by President Reagan’s Executive Order 12631 in 1988 following the 1987 crash. Its purpose is to lawfully prevent...
The big picture on USDCAD is useful to get an idea of what may be probabilities on lower time frames. There are some unusual goings on at a 1D time frame, one I've never seen before. So, I'm stalking this one closely for a trend change.
I overview what are some of the possibilities and probabilities over the next few weeks for Wall Street. I compare again the current situation with that of around 2008. Preliminary action on small time frames on Weekend Wall Street, do not look exciting for a trip north on Monday. We shall have to wait and see, as Mr Trump often says. I do not know what's...
This screencast shows a strange curature, which I relied on. There is a trend change on the 4H time frame which is usually significant.
I was long on UKOIL on a lower time frame, as there were early indications that it could be heading north. My trend following assessments then changed, as the picture unfolded. I decided to bail out just in time for no loss. I don't care if it now jumps north. At this point in time - based on what I see - I now think the probability for the daily time frame is...
In this screencast I review a number of indices: the ACWI, US30, NASDAQ100, India50, Japan225 and SPUBYUP. The picture is pretty grim. Some say that the world is heading into a deep recession that's likely to be worse than 2008. Some of course say 'no chance'. The India50 and the Brazil60 are the two main indices, yet to take a nose dive. The India50 is...
'Everybody' is watching the S&P500 and Wall Street. Some may have forgotten about the India50 (the NIFTY). It appears to be troubled. I've shorted at what I estimate to be a turning point (which is not advice for others). If this falls, it could be ugly.
In this screencast I look back to 2008 to get an idea of what happened in the last crash. As I'm in a lot of positive equity, I don't want to become complacent in my trend following. So - I've looked back to see the sort of bouncing around of price I could expect (if the current picture unfolds similarly). To be clear, I am not saying that what happened in 2008...
I don't know which way EURUSD is going - as my analysis are time frame dependent and trend-dependent. Plus my crystal ball was broken many years ago, beyond repair! :)) In this screencast, I've reviewed from Weekly down to 15 min time frames. I'm in too much doubt. When in that state of mind, I'm happy to stay out and be left behind to miss loadsah equity or...
There is probably a head and shoulders in there. Trend on 4H seems to be weakening. No recommendations. My entry point was based on other methodologies.
This is a short one. It appears that the SPX spooked itself last night! Well, to be fair it was probably news of the death cross which caught some investors, that was related to some price action. Markets - at their tips - are ruled by hope, fear and greed. Watch this space. No predictions - as usual. :)
Wall Street was in a funny mood today. I show the daily time frames first and drill into the action on 15 min time frame.