This is an educational post - compliant with the house rules on text-based contributions - showing some of the tension between monetary policy taken by the FED and real world fiscal issues at deeper levels. Click and drag chart if all text does not show. Thanks. The tension has caused whipsaws in the US Dollar, and price of Gold. The IMF has declared a global...
A few weeks ago, 'everybody' was saying Gold to hit $5000 in short time. I too got caught up in this. Well, I changed my mind. It may get there but I do not now believe it's gonna get to $5000 soon. Have a look at the chart and note disclaimers.
In this educational post, I look back to 2008 to get a rough idea what may be in store for us in 2020. This is a cautious exploration because what happened in 2008 was very very different to what's happening today (though there are many similarities). This post does not exclude the possibility that the US and other stock markets may recover totally and head to...
Note the disclaimer. This would be a high risk short position, which means you have a good chance of losing money. As I'm adopting a radically transparent approach to trading, I'm focusing a lot on losses. I know 'everybody' likes a winning prediction. The reality is that even fore the best traders up to 70% of trading positions lose. The trick is in finding a...
Have a look. I show on the chart why I think Bitcoin could be in trouble. South seems more probable on this time frame only. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
I show a broad kill zone on 1D chart of UK Oil. Features: 1. Price coming into a zone of congestion. 2. Double pump on Squeeze momentum - which means movement upward of price is more likely to be a minor rebellion. 3. Price below the ATR line. 4. RSI struggling at this time of publication to get above 50. Short-sellers should not act on this set up unless...
At this time the overall probability from higher time frames is for DJI to move south (6H to 1D). However, there is a trend move probably on a 3 min to 5 min coming up. This could move DJI up from 20800 to possibly as an estimate 21600. This is not a prediction. Have a look. Also see my other video that tracked a trend change on the DAX (link is below). Note:...
Hardly anyone looks at the Australian 200. It is one of the best indices to short. The Aussies strangely went north at open of their market last night - when the rest of the world's indices were burning down. There is usually a significant lag between the AUS200 and the other indices, which I decided to exploit. This morning 08:30AM 2020-04-01 it's struggling...
Well, this is one to watch. This is a 30 min trend following setup. There are no targets. NOTE: only about 20% of all traders are true trend-followers. Trend following is very difficult and far more risky than other forms of trading. There are serious losses involved if anyone follows this developing trend. You have been warned.
Everybody likes it simple. Well, this is a tough one. As I promote radical transparency in trading, I'm also showing the reality - how difficult it is in making trading decision, and controlling loss. It is a waiting game, and about avoiding FOMO. Those who do not know what FOMO is, should stop trading instantly. There are losses involved in this position -...
This is would be a late entry short if one decides to go in now. If one cannot take the loss, stay out! You've been told. In other words if you lose your money, sue yourself. I do not avoid the issue of losses. I'm going to bring it up more and more - as it is the main thing to be controlled in all trading. Any arguments about that?
Did I say 'controlled loss'. Yes I did! This is also known as a stop loss - for those who wish to short, and can afford it. If one cannot take the loss, stay out! You've been told. In other words if you lose your money, sue yourself. I do not avoid the issue of losses. I'm going to bring it up more and more - as it is the main thing to be controlled in all...
Gold could be ripe for a short. No guarantees. Disclaimers : T his is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
This is a 'theory of curves' analysis. Note carefully there is a 45% estimated chance of downside, which means the north-side estimate can fail miserably. How far north, if it goes, I do not know! Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed...
In this screencast I show that based on the technical picture and using some fundamental concepts, that heavy down side is likely in the next 3 to 6 months. The degree of momentum south is so heavy that I can expect it to move further south on this time frame. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no...
This is an exploration of the weekly time frame. I expect (not predict) more eventual downside for the EURO, at a rate faster than any devaluation of USD. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
This is a 60-second screencast. It is designed for thinking - the most important activity in trading.
The DJI has reacted in panic mode for many days. It is at this stage relatively oversold on a 2H time frame (only). In this screencast, I show a 'theory of curves' situation which possibly shows a 55% probability north. Please NOTE carefully that this leaves a 45% probability for the south. Probability estimates base on technical indicators are not...