Hard to know if this recent move is the start of a wave 5 up in the corrective rally, or wave 1 of a new downtrend. Lots of resistance in the 3950-4050 range. Will be looking for a short entry before the week is out but still riding the upward trend. Daily stochastics has been positive for the past few days so when I have doubts, I refer back to that...
I've never seen anyone present an Elliott Wave cycle on this time scale. Although the move doesn't maintain a parallel channel, I put forth the case that the Depression era was Wave 2. Wave 4, from 2002 to 2009. Wave 5 likely has much longer to go. Looks like maybe we are just in wave 4 of Wave 1 of 5 for the final 5th long term wave. Any thoughts?
Not yet breaking out. Downward trend still intact. Bought a bunch of cheap October puts just in case. PM rallies hardly ever last.