AssetDesign

AssetDesign

As someone commented in my recent SPY post that a short term bounce back to the 405 level might occur before lower lows, Looking at a possible wave structure might move this to be a correct assessment. The drug stocks have been really strong as are insurance stocks. Still have to keep the eyes on the interest rates though. TLT has been surprisingly strong.

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Looks like, after another brief dip, Gold could break out to the $2,000 level

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Bumping up against resistance at the .328 fib resistance level, Expect next leg down to test the -0.236 fib around 20.

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SPY tried to push through the .618 Fib retracement today but the 400 level presented stiff resistance. Took profits and switched to a Bear posture looking for the 328 level by the end of the year

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This could either be an A-B-C wave with another major leg down coming, or an extension in the middle of a major wave down. Will be watching for topping signs around 94 with another major move down. Would expect stocks to follow along.

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Coming in from a Bullish Market standpoint, Intel may be setting up for a big rally. Following the A-B-C correction, INTL would move into a wave 3, pushing for much higher prices.

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While many are still looking for lower market lows, It's important to see that some sectors of the market are on fire! All the talk is on Energy stocks but insurance companies have been on a tear. Higher interest rates will certainly benefit these shares.

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and the miners up nicely. Both GOLD and PAAS up more than $1 today. The physical and paper markets have been disconnected.

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Has the dollar finally topped? Or will higher interest rates continue to push the dollar higher? In this weekly line chart, PAAS illustrates a triple bottom. Other reports discuss a shortage of deliverable silver at both the Comex and LME. PAAS took a hit after news about it's bid to buy out another miner. Glad to see the company looking for opportunities...

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It's hard stepping in front of a falling knife but one thought continues to ring in my brain, that is the thought that one day, the precious metals miners may replace the banks as new monetary systems may be backed with real assets. The dollar has been screaming higher as the Fed continues to raise rates. It appears that a top in the low 5% range is being...

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Silver looks attractive. I was anticipating a three week test of the low, testing 17, but even with the Fed's remarks that aggressive interest rate hikes will continue, silver held its ground. Saw a piece yesterday on seasonality in precious metals prices. The author suggested that silver is seasonally strong from November through the end of February. The...

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I'm looking for a down week in SLV. It could drop to $17, testing the lows set three weeks ago. If it holds the lows, I will buy SLV at $17 and sell the March 31 $18 option. A t current prices, SLV Mar31 $18 sells for $152. Amortized over five months, a 1.71%, or $30.19 per month is earned (27% annualized). A lower stock price will improve this percentage.

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Among the most noticeable market sectors moving last week was the metals, metals miners and other basic materials stocks. The consensus grows that the Fed is running out of room to continue hiking. The market appears to be viewing that the next 75 basis point hike in November may be the last. All eyes will be on the Fed's forward guidance. Any dovish tone will...

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Among the leaders in country index funds this week, ILF soared more than 9%. Top equities here are miners and banks, two of the best performing industries, especially in the last week. In general, markets are poised for a positive move. SPX appears poised to test the 40 week moving average some 9% higher at 4100. ILF has potential to touch the 31 level, nearly...

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Some years ago, I was in between putting a big position on in SLV or GOLD (formerly ABX) at the $17 level. Both were equally priced. Barrick far outpaced SLV into the forthcoming rally and I regretted not buying it at $17. At $14 - 15 this week, I opened a long position. One thing I read and liked is that future Barrick dividends will include participatory...

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The market has been acting very well but can the momentum continue into next week? Banks and Oil continue to lead the way but metals and mining stocks have certainly shined today. Market seems to be sensing that the Fed will moderate after the next rate hike. I think we hit a low and will begin Wave 3.

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My current stance that we are in a Wave 2 Correction is being challenged. Price remains below the 40 month moving average with still no sign of a bottom. The Bollinger Band Width measurement shows growing strength in the trend. A spike in the VIX that also can indicate a bottom has not yet occurred. The only positive I see is that there was a little support at...

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In recent reviews of long term trends, I have noticed that the 40 month moving average has marked the bottom levels for Waves 2 and 4 in long term impulse moves. Major corrections have broken below the 40 month average. The December 2018 to March 2020 marked the last major correction phase. The move from 218 to 480 was Wave 1. I propose that we are completing...