Alexander_C_Lambert

Alexander_C_Lambert

All credit booms brought about by Central Bank-induced artificially low interest rates and loose lending standards end in busts. In the recessionary phase that follows the boom, credit becomes much harder to attain and many over-leveraged businesses end up going bankrupt. The recessionary phase reveals the malinvestments and unsound business decisions that were...

Alexander_C_Lambert

The recent failure of First Republic Bank highlights the problems facing the US banking system. These problems include the continued increase of delinquency rates on Credit cards, Commercial Real Estate & Automobiles, as well as a decrease of commercial bank deposits and M2 money supply (-4.2% YoY). These problems, among others, are causing banking institutions to...

Alexander_C_Lambert

Hunstman is a chemical manufacturer whose earnings have plummeted over 85% compared to the first half of 2022. The chart is a prime example of a large head & shoulders pattern. Analysts expect its earning to remain depressed and the chart shows signs of Distribution over the past 2 years.

Alexander_C_Lambert

The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at...

Alexander_C_Lambert

The current level of euphoria and speculation on Wall Street is likely to go down in history in the same way that the misplaced optimism of speculators in 1929 was immortalized by the tremendous crash and ensuing depression. The current dynamics at play are more similar to that period than most realize. Many potential catalysts for the Global Financial Crisis...

Alexander_C_Lambert

The current rollover in the market, featuring a clear double top with negative RSI divergence, is remarkably similar to the February 2020 & August-September 2008 rollovers. My opinion is that the current rollover will resolve with a large move to the downside in similar fashion to the aforementioned time periods.

Alexander_C_Lambert

The current level of euphoria and speculation on Wall Street is likely to go down in history in the same way that the misplaced optimism of speculators in 1929 was immortalized by the tremendous crash and ensuing depression. The current dynamics at play are more similar to that period than most realize. Many potential catalysts for the Global Financial Crisis...

Alexander_C_Lambert Updated 

In a severe economic contraction with unemployment above 10% and interest rates above 5% ( mortgage rates above 8%) puts the S&P's probable trough multiple below 10. My projections based off of: the contractions of 1920-1921 & 1929-1933, the current data on manufacturing and services in the USA and around the world, and the money supply. 100-125 earnings per...

Alexander_C_Lambert

Correlations between all sectors of the market have moved increasingly to one throughout the year. The correlations have become even tighter since Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Stocks and Bonds continue falling even though they are very oversold. Crashes happen in oversold markets. Worsening liquidity problems in markets, rising interest rates, and bonds...

Alexander_C_Lambert

Bearish copper due too global economic slowdown and technical analysis.

Alexander_C_Lambert

I'm expecting a retest of the covid-lows by the end of the year due to technical indicators and macro factors, such as: Inflation, rising interest rates, tensions with china, and recession. Volatility is likely to increase throughout the remainder of the year.

Alexander_C_Lambert

I'm with Dr. Burry on this on. This financial crisis will really hit the banks.

Alexander_C_Lambert

I am expecting economical-sensitive investments like banks to crash to far lower levels than they reached in march 2020 due to even worse economic circumstances ( Contraction + Inflation entrenched)

Alexander_C_Lambert

Junior gold miners should outperform Gold and rise over 400% over a period of 2ish years with 3k+ Gold in 2024

Alexander_C_Lambert

With 2 year treasury rates targeting 9%+, bond prices will continue collapsing until de facto Yield Curve Control is implemented by the FED. Fed balance sheet will expand to over 40T over the next 5 years.

Alexander_C_Lambert

Expecting a flood of money into precious metals that takes Silver over $250 within 5-6 years. The crashing bond market and raging inflation will spur huge inflows over the coming months and years. Huge Cup and Handle that began in 1971 will play out over the course of this decade.

Alexander_C_Lambert

Technical indicators only just beginning to turn up. My expectation is it breaks 5K within 3 years. Trillions of dollars are leaving the bond market and they will flee towards gold for inflation protection.

Alexander_C_Lambert

Expecting a drop of 65%-70% from peak to trough in the S&P500 over the next 2 years.