Week 4 for Bitcoin consolidation under a key level from the past cycle. My bias is to the upside in Q2, but clarity comes with this week's economic data . The US Dollar Index (DXY) is still flirting with a historically bearish level and momentum. JPOW has to come out swinging to save 101/2. Remember, generally speaking DXY down = BTC up.
We are very close to escaping the darkest depths of the bear market. JUN-22 hammered crypto. Bitcoin lost critical support at $30k and dropped 45%; Ethereum fell under $1k. Fast forward to Q1 to Q2 2023, Bitcoin is flirting with $30k; Ethereum is at nearly $1900. If bulls recover $30k it gets spicy.. that leads to the next value range towards $40k. Not to say...
Bitcoin was in an ascending channel for 4 months, since the FTX meltdown. If the weekly close is over $27k, it finally escapes the channel. This will start a new trend; with targets as high as mid $30s. Rejection will retest lower range of value gap ($25.2k) to lower $20s.
On higher timeframes, extending from Nov-22, BTC is in a bearish pattern (channel, possibly flag). Currently at the top of that channel, from Jan-Mar BTC drew a continuation pattern (expanding wedge ), between $20k-25k. The weekly close is super important, bulls want to close over $27k, escaping the ascending channel to begin a new trend. But a rejection can...
A quick scan of Bitcoin momentum and structure suggests we might top out between $23k and $25k locally. There is still anxiety and uncertainty in markets. I think we need clearer guidance from the Treasury and Fed to recover $25k. Until then, a sideways between $20k and $25 remains my thesis, with intraweek wicks beyond that possible. A weekly close over $25k...
Bitcoin is returning home, as it drops to a historical demand range between $20.6k and $21.3k. This is a great litmus test for bulls, to see if the demand is still there. 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻? Inconsistent economic data is spooking investors, and other news events (some might say FUD) like Silvergate or Mt. Gox, are amplifying those fears. Also the higher timeframe...
Bitcoin has people sweating. The fud last week was excessive, in my opinion. You see that sometimes, its a good stress test for crypto. That said, some of the concerns are valid and deserve to be monitored, like the Silvergate news and ongoing SEC drama. But back to the chart - BTC tapped a local diagonal support extending from mid January, around ~$22k. A rally...
Last week we called the following levels, with the value gap overhead acting as resistance. "Resistance: $24.3k, $29k, $30k Support: $24.2k, $22.8k, $21.7k, $20k" It turned out that $24.3k was the right call, being the bottom of the value gap it rejected Bitcoin for the second time since last summer. With that rejection, bulls are forced to retreat and we we...
The value gap still acting as resistance. Part of me wants a stronger rejection so I can get a good DCA entry.. .. but 2/3 of retracements past 90 days were bullish, and while momentum indicates some exhaustion on lower timeframes, thats not the only factor. The ideal scenario for bulls is a swing down to ~22.9k before rallying for another shot at penetrating...
February was a month of moderate recovery for the US Dollar Index (DXY). After an incredible rally through 2022, peaking in Q4 at 114.7, the DXY began retracing to a critical level below 101.7. Historically (7 times) closing below the 101.7 level signaled larger drops for DXY. It narrowly dodged that fate with a solid bounce and February rally back to...
In the past two weeks Bitcoin successfully retested the Nov-21 former resistance as support. The 23.6 fib level held (with intraweek wicks lower). This indicates bulls are in control. Price is approaching the value gap that rejected Bitcoin last summer. This is historically a heavy sell range, and its likely to get messier here through the next week or two....
Bitcoin Update: Following the late January breakout, Bitcoin returned this week to retest the November 2021 diagonal resistance flipped support (bullish). It is holding (for now) - but watch it closely going into the weekly close tonight. Note that even if we respect the Nov 2021 support, price may continue riding the diagonal down to retest $20k psychological...
2023 started with the first positive (bullish) momentum breakout since 2021. Going into February it needs to reset, which means price retracing. Bulls want to hold the first green box (~$21k) and confirm the Nov-21 diagonal resistance (white line) as support. Bears want to drop below that Nov-21 diagonal resistance (white line) to retest lower levels. I'm...
Looking at the current cycle: W.D. Gann , Charles Dow, and others discovered that price typically retraces 50% to 62%. Of course trading isn't always that easy, but sometimes charts line up beautifully. Bitcoin retraced to 50%, recovered to 38%. This implies a healthy correction. Curious to see if it holds that 38% level.
The Dollar Index is testing the key level around 101.x. This range served as resistance 7 times since 1986. All eyes are on US economic data (and Euro zone), but if the Dollar loses 101 on the monthly it likely leads to heavier downside, meaning upside for crypto
Thoughts on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Since the 1980s, the 101 range rejected DXY 7 times. Its currently retraced to diagonal resistance flipped support, extending from the early 2000s, now at 101.8. With the Fed approaching peak rates, this confluence of levels could signal more downside. The next FOMC is a critical one. If the DXY continues it's descent,...
I'm not fudding $APE, its one of only 5 altcoins I own. But I think its gonna wreck late / FOMO buyers later in January or February after the mint. High staking emissions; hype growing like repeat of Otherside when APE dropped >80% in the 5 weeks after. Yuga vesting also unlocks in March. Be careful, take some profit.
Price dropped down to the current support on the M2 adjusted chart. This support level correlates with the 2019 top, and the assumption here is that the money adjusted level is coming into play the same time the Fed is considering tempering rate hikes. Of course the big focus now is peak hike versus monthly hikes, but once the response to the new peak hike plays...