Bitcoin is returning home, as it drops to a historical demand range between $20.6k and $21.3k. This is a great litmus test for bulls, to see if the demand is still there.
๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป?
Inconsistent economic data is spooking investors, and other news events (some might say FUD) like Silvergate or Mt. Gox, are amplifying those fears. Also the higher timeframe uptrend was exhausted, and this is part of the momentum reset that we called for over the past month. The drop was inevitable but macro events add a little fuel to the fire.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐?
The most likely scenario is continued crab $20k-$25k, with bearish bias until FOMC, meaning consolidation through the lower $20s. If we see more positive economic news (ie. inflation retreating, more layoffs, etc.) then we may recover to the mid $20s.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐น๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐น-
The most important level here is the diagonal white support, extending from November 2021. That former resistance is what sent markets down 2021 thru 2022.
If we close a weekly under it (currently ~$20k), this rally is over and we likely resume crabbing through upper teens again.
๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป?
Inconsistent economic data is spooking investors, and other news events (some might say FUD) like Silvergate or Mt. Gox, are amplifying those fears. Also the higher timeframe uptrend was exhausted, and this is part of the momentum reset that we called for over the past month. The drop was inevitable but macro events add a little fuel to the fire.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐?
The most likely scenario is continued crab $20k-$25k, with bearish bias until FOMC, meaning consolidation through the lower $20s. If we see more positive economic news (ie. inflation retreating, more layoffs, etc.) then we may recover to the mid $20s.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐น๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐น-
The most important level here is the diagonal white support, extending from November 2021. That former resistance is what sent markets down 2021 thru 2022.
If we close a weekly under it (currently ~$20k), this rally is over and we likely resume crabbing through upper teens again.