ASMN trade ideas
75: Analyzing ASML Sales Decline Potential Bearish MomentumIn light of the recent downturn in ASML sales, it's prudent to assess potential implications for the stock's trajectory. ASML faces lower than expected orders in Q1 amid industry downturn. CEO Peter Wennink remains optimistic about sector recovery in 2024. Orders dip to €3.6 billion, revenue at €5.3 billion. Our initial target lies at 826.1, where we anticipate a consolidation phase. However, if selling pressure persists, we could foresee a drop to 688.6. Monitoring validation of short positions is crucial. Conversely, stabilization around 826.1 could signify a potential reversal and pave the way for renewed upward momentum. Keeping a close eye on market dynamics and key support levels will be paramount in navigating ASML's current trajectory.
ASML Bullish on daily chartDouble bottom
Ichimoku bullish pattern
MACD Bullish
C and H pattern target prices not achieved yet
Constraints
Swing 5:5 created 2 consecutive supply zones
Verdict - Overa;; Bullish with short term hiccups
ASML Weekly - Breakout and successful re-test of prior ATH ASML on the weekly timeframe broke out of the prior All Time High level of 877 made back in Sep 2021 and retested the same and is trading above that level.
As long as ASML is trading above 900 level, we can expect to 930 immediate target, followed by 950 and then 1000 levels prior to their next earnings.
CMP - 919
T1 - 930
T2 - 950
T3 - 1000
SL - day close below 900
The above is just my opinion based on my chart reading skills.
ASML Elliot ABC Correction Wave I think ASML will decline with the Elliot correction wave after today's financials.
I think this correction could be up to $680-820 levels.
There is a gap around $ 780, at least I think this gap will be filled.
Every upward reaction in ASML above around $900 is an opportunity for a short position. As long as ASML remains below $1050, I plan to increase my short position on any upward price reaction above $900.
ASML April 17, 2024: Sell SignalOn April 17, 2024, NASDAQ:ASML broke down from its trendline, as shown on the chart, after its earnings release.
Similar to NASDAQ:ARM , the breakdown occurred at the same time when it crossed below its 50-day moving average, which signified a sell signal for both stocks.
ASML April 17, 2024: A Symmetrical Triangle PatternAs the close of April 16, 2024, right before the earnings, NASDAQ:ASML is moving to the end of the symmetrical triangle pattern as shown on the chart. The earnings will be the key for this stock to break out above or break down.
I have no positions in NASDAQ:ASML right now, but still holding $NASDAQ:NVDA.
ASML supported on the 1D MA50. Bullish unless it breaks.ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and after it broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) more recently on November 01 2023, it went on a more aggressive (dotted) Channel Up.
The 1D MA50 is the key to its price action as not only did it hold on the previous Higher Low (January 17 2024) but also two days ago, which is technically the latest Higher Low. Technically, as long as it holds, the trend remains bullish and we will be targeting the top of the blue Channel Up at 1200.
If the stock however closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and open a sell instead, targeting 900.00 (-15.57% decline as the March 12 2023 Low).
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$ASML Came back to earth The 8EMA magnetic pull is strong making price to come near the 8 EMA. Noticed the equally high volume with a big red candle is a warning too.
ASML: Riding the Wave of AI Innovation in Chip TechnologyASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) emerges as a standout player with a unique position in the AI value chain. The company's recent announcement of next-generation high-NA EUV machines signifies a significant leap forward in chip technology, solidifying its position as a key enabler for semiconductor manufacturers. This article delves into NASDAQ:ASML 's pivotal role in the AI revolution, its technological monopoly, financial performance, and the intriguing dynamics shaping its future.
NASDAQ:ASML 's Cornerstone Role in AI Innovation:
At the heart of AI advancements lies the intricate world of microchip manufacturing, and ASML stands as the linchpin connecting various facets of this industry. The company specializes in lithography machines, particularly the groundbreaking extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines that etch microscopic patterns on microchips. These machines are integral to producing high-performing, energy-efficient chips as small as 3 nanometers – a critical requirement for AI applications.
Unraveling the Technological Monopoly:
ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) prowess lies not only in its cutting-edge technology but also in its unrivaled position as the sole producer of EUV lithography machines globally. This technological monopoly sets ASML apart in today's fiercely competitive landscape, with no real contenders in sight. The recent unveiling of the next-generation high-NA EUV machines reinforces ASML's commitment to innovation, creating a substantial barrier for potential competitors.
Financial Landscape and Market Dynamics:
Despite the immense promise of ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) technology, the stock's valuation reflects the challenges associated with its business model. The company's Q4 results showcased robust revenues of 7.2 billion euros, underlining the demand for its products. However, the high cost of its EUV machines contributes to fluctuating sales figures, making quarterly results susceptible to variations in machine sales.
Investor Patience and Future Growth:
ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) investors face a unique scenario where the company anticipates a plateau in sales for 2024, contradicting the expected trajectory associated with the booming AI industry. Management attributes this to a "transition" year, with 2025 projected to bring robust growth. The strategic foresight of ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ), coupled with the inevitability of continuous AI innovation, positions the company for sustained success, albeit with a need for investor patience during the transitional phase.
Technical Outlook and Investment Considerations:
From a technical standpoint, ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) Holding has broken the rising trend in the medium to long term, indicating a potentially stronger upward momentum.
Conclusion:
ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) role as a pivotal player in the AI value chain, coupled with its technological monopoly and ongoing innovation, paints a compelling picture for investors. While the stock may be trading at a premium, the company's strategic positioning and the undeniable demand for advanced chip technology in the AI era make ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) a compelling long-term investment.
Missed rally of NVDA? ASML can be another big buying opportunityWith a Big WAVE 1 and 2 ASML has finished its cycle of long bearish cycle.
Now the opportunities lies for the 3rd wave where spiking in volume is a factor for 3rd wave. Similarly, Breakout of channel also justifies the 3rd wave move if ASML holds current position.
This wave should push the ASML with minimum target of 1200.
Top stock picks for the next years No.2 ASML I am publishing a series of the best stocks with the highest growth rates that I expect over the next few years. Today with the ASML share with a target price of 1256$.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the regional top on ASML:
nor entered the dip before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 770usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-26,
for a premium of approximately $15.85.
And looking at the chart this would be probably the final leg of the Double Top.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ASML euronextASML Euronext is currently exploring new price levels and has the potential to easily reach 1000 euros, representing a 25% increase from its current value. In the event of a price retracement to 710, consider employing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) by strategically purchasing between 800 and 720 euros. It is crucial to uphold support at 635 to sustain the current uptrend. Enjoy the market journey until the monthly higher low is breached
ASML Surges on Record Orders and EarningsNASDAQ:ASML , the chipmaking equipment giant, witnessed a soaring 10% surge in its stock value following the announcement of its fourth-quarter earnings. The company reported record orders, outstripping analysts' expectations, and achieved a net profit of 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) with sales reaching 7.2 billion euros ($7.8 billion). While this stellar performance delighted investors, a cloud of uncertainty looms as NASDAQ:ASML cautions about potential impacts on future sales to China due to new export restrictions.
Record-Breaking Performance:
NASDAQ:ASML 's stellar financial results for the fourth quarter showcased the company's robust performance in the face of a challenging economic landscape. Net profit increased by an impressive 9% from the previous year, reaching 2 billion euros, while sales hit 7.2 billion euros, surpassing analyst estimates. The star of the show was the record-breaking net bookings, soaring to an unprecedented 9.2 billion euros, primarily driven by robust demand for NASDAQ:ASML 's cutting-edge equipment.
Dividend Increase:
Despite the uncertainty in global markets, NASDAQ:ASML expressed confidence by announcing a dividend for the year of 6.10 euros ($6.65) per ordinary share, signifying a 5.2% increase over the previous year. Shareholders will also receive an interim dividend of 1.45 euros ($1.58) per share in February, underscoring the company's commitment to delivering value to its investors.
China Export Concerns:
While basking in the glory of its impressive financial performance, NASDAQ:ASML did not shy away from addressing potential challenges ahead. The company warned that future sales to China could face headwinds due to new export restrictions. NASDAQ:ASML anticipates a 10-15% decline in deliveries to China in 2024, signaling a potential impact on its revenue from this critical market. The specifics of the export restrictions remain unclear, but they highlight the growing complexities in the global trade landscape.
Investor Response:
In response to the mixed signals from NASDAQ:ASML 's earnings report, the stock price soared to $860.04, reflecting a 10.6% increase as of midday on the announcement day. The market's positive reaction indicates investor confidence in NASDAQ:ASML 's ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on the strong demand for its advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Conclusion:
NASDAQ:ASML 's remarkable performance in the fourth quarter, marked by record orders and earnings that exceeded expectations, showcases its resilience and dominance in the chipmaking equipment industry. However, the cautionary note about potential challenges in the Chinese market adds an element of uncertainty to the otherwise positive narrative. Investors will closely monitor how NASDAQ:ASML navigates these hurdles and sustains its growth trajectory in an ever-evolving global economic landscape.
ASML trading journeyNASDAQ:ASML FY24E outlook seems to be mediocre, management guided flat sales with a similar level of margins hence I don't expect strong earnings growth (if any)
Making some decent returns >25% overall in the past 4 months.
Will exit the stock for the time being and monitor it over the years. Will enter again at a cheaper price as I still do believe in the long-term growth potential.
ASML: Potential BuyExpecting the price to keep climbing with the trend lines backed with positive analyst expectations.
ASML in H1-2024The year almost comes to an end and this allows us to look back at 2023 as well as looking forward to the new year. Overall ASML stock saw high volatility during the year, but in terms of total returns there was only a minor movement in stock price. With this being said, I would like to take a look at the final weeks of the year and the coming first half of 2024.
ASML's stock is finding itself in a triangle pattern, with support at the 200-week MA as well as the €540 mark. ASML's RSI is around 63 at the time of writing meaning the bulls are still in control. However, if ASML fails to break out of the pattern, some downside is expected towards the trend line and after the support at €540.
So, what do you think? In H1-2024, will ASML's stock hit a new ATH, or will we visit the trend line or even the support at €540, where it might be time to load up on ASML stock. Let me know in the comments below!
BreakoutASML is a global leader in manufacturing semi-conductors but the share price has been lagging behind its competitors who are trading close to all-time highs. A breakout is inevitable but if it fails, it will track the 50-month moving average.
Why the 50-month MA?? The last time the stock ever closed below this level was in Sep and Oct 2022 and during the 2008 financial crisis. There is no reason for the stock to drop to October 2022 lows unless there is a fundamental cause.
The stock has a high probability to go higher but if it breaks down, an entry at the 50-month moving average will be the next top-up.
ASML from a long term perspectiveASML is a strong company who is planning to build more facilities in the US, I believe they are building one here in my home state of CT. 2,000 - 4,000 jobs could be added. The weekly chart looks great.
Some might see ASML as being richly valued, however it resides in the semi-conductor industry which has been seeing more growth in comparison to other industries.
ASML Fundamentals
P/E - 33
PEG 0.77
EPS 20.61 for the last 12 months
395 million shares (19% held by institutions)
Always pay attention to the float and shares outstanding. Many new investors don't know that companies can just issue more shares when they need money. Called 'raising capital through secondary offerings,' it should be called "Diluting Investors" because that's what it does. Each time this happens your stock is valued lower and lower.
ASML approaching significant supportASML Holding (ASML) approaching a significant zone of support, able to absorb monthly selling pressures.
Currently, there are two dynamics at play for (ASML).
If (ASML) drops into the zone of support, the stock can rotate higher and elicit gains of 20% over the following 3 - 5 months.
Also, there is nearby resistance that if settled above, would also elicit gains of approximately 20% over the following 2 - 3 months.
Inversely, if (ASML) settles on a weekly basis below shown support, this would put (ASML) into a sell signal where losses of 15 - 20% would be expected over the following 3 - 5 months.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the top here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $16.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
