Identified this cyclic pattern earlier today and the price has been following it surprisingly well. Seems to be on target from my initial idea, check the related idea below.
---=== UPDATE ===---
Closed position at 2.1k profit due to positive US economic news.
Norway's GDP readings have come in better than expected. Y/Y @ 3.9% and Q/Q @ 0.3% up from 1.1% and -0.2% respectively and both beating estimates.
On H4 charts, the retracement to 5.96074 looks like a prime target to short from targeting 5.83130 (for now).
Alternatively, wait for the resistance to be confirmed at 5.96 and sell at the most recent lows in the run up.
Update from the previous chart for USDNOK, we see three patterns confirming the target of 5.83530,
Risks:
20/05: Norway GDP release forecast 1.34%. Prev 1.1% y/y | forecast 1.52%. Prev -0.2% q/q
22/05: Unemployment rate. Its been stable at 3.5%, so any downside reading could pose some threats to this trade.
Follow up to my EURNOK chart, USDNOK is also shaping up for a retracement to sell. Marked past support/resistance levels on the charts.
Currently, there's a median line bounce, so likely for price to test the UML and then gradually drag along.
This could be a long term trade, so set it and forget it. Fundamentally, NOK is stronger compared to the USD. No QE....
We are in the fifth subwave of the fifth Major wave in the Elliott Wave Cycle. Take all opportunities to sell this currency pair. Maintain a bearish and negative outlook on USDNOK till the 14th of this month.
Cheers.
The minor Fifth wave of the Major Fifth wave on the 4H chart is showing clear patterns of bearishness. Have a negative attitude on the pair at least till the 14th of this month. Take all opportunities to go short on this pair.
Cheers.
REASONS why this trade could work out:
The Risk to Reward ratio is (1 : 1.8).
The direction of trade is in the direction of the current trend.
RSI is sloping downwards.
The wave being traded is wave 3 which is the longest wave.
