US 30 Year Yields Have TOPPED! The 30 Year Treasuries have hit Major Resistances. Yields will drop below 3.5% by this time next year. A MAJOR BOND RALLY is starting as the FED will Monetize the Long End of the Curve. Longby Borgetto23112
30Y Rate HistoryA little lesson in interest rates for you kids out there following me. The notion that rates are too high for the market to go up is nonsense, we're basically at the same interest rate as when the Dot Com Bubble and Housing Bubble occurred. The low interest rates you've seen for the last 15 years is because of the housing bust and subsequent QE. You can see in the late 80's the market went up with interest rate at 9%. You shouldn't short the market just because of interest rates. Daily indicators hit oversold on every index and bounce up today. Bullish.by hungry_hippoUpdated 229
Forget Soft, Hard Or No Landing, Higher For Longer...Is the Stock Market Dead Money For The Next 10-20 Years? So much of how our markets work is based on optimism. Can you imagine being a money manager and your entire sales pitch is some negative diatribe about how the market is going down and will continue to go down? Would you fork over your hard-earned savings based on such a story? Not a successful plan of attack for a person trying to raise capital if you ask me. However, therein lies the disconnect between what is really going on in today’s market, versus what the average person reads and hears in the financial news. The same optimistic money managers sponsor those articles or those TV shows. Would your business buy an ad on a show or in a magazine that constantly gave a negative outlook on your business? I’ve always considered myself an optimist. However, nowadays, I find nothing to be optimistic about with respect to the US stock markets. The reason is, my prevailing analytical thesis is, the markets are now entering a long-term cycle in which many aspects of our economy will be reverting to their respective long-term mean. From interest rates, to income inequality. This time frame, I refer to, is meant to be a reset in expectations. If I am correct in my analysis, this will unfold over a long period of time. During this period, many of old correlations and metrics used to determine the value of the stock market, assets in general, (housing, for example) will break down and end up becoming less useful to those who fundamentally analyze assets, stocks and the markets for a living. The cycle I am referring to is one in which none of the current market participants have experienced. Now before you draw a hasty conclusion, and think this article is about me warning you, the reader, a 1987 stock market crash scenario is on the horizon, I’ll caution you. It is not. However, my analysis shows that the market will essentially become dead money for at least the next decade or two. That means buying most market-based asset classes, and holding them, will not produce the desired results of the past. Please indulge me while I provide some background and explain. I practice a form of market analysis that is exclusively focused on price action. I guess you could sum up my work by styling me as a pattern analyst. That means stock market news, events, corporate earnings and all external data is of little concern to me as I carry out my day-to-day analysis on the SP500. I never take those external events into account while analyzing any of the markets I cover. I watch the patterns market participants create with their buys and sells. I study those patterns across the many markets I cover and over both the short and extremely long periods of time. One could say I took my mother’s advice to heart, and watch what they do, not what they say. It’s the law large crowds, and the larger the crowd, the more accurate the forecast. The SP500 contains one of the largest crowds assembled. Each day it involves millions of participants, exchanging large volumes of assets for vast sums of money. Suffice to say, my work can produce some scary accurate forecasts based on the participation of the crowds in those markets. A final anecdote to explain my work lies in a simple experiment I observed some time ago on YouTube. To illustrate the power of large crowds, a YouTuber decides to conduct an experiment. The individual fills a large mason jar with marbles. The half gallon sized mason jar is now brimming with marbles, and the metal lid is twisted on, sealing the jar. The individual then attends a local carnival and sets up a booth to solicit guesses as to the total amount of marbles contained in the mason jar. Volunteers are asked to simply observe the jar, and write down their guesses on a post-it-note. After collecting a large number of post-it-notes, the guesses are entered into a spreadsheet. Next, the marbles are emptied on a carpet and counted. 1340 marbles. Comparing the spreadsheet data, the conclusion was, although some volunteers came close in guessing the correct number of marbles, no one guessed correctly. Guesses ranged from as low as 300 to as high as 3,000. A seemingly random data set. However, under further examination, the average of the total guesses were 1335 marbles. This simple experiment explains the legitimacy of some sort of “inexplicable collective consciences” when involving a large crowd. My current bearish perspective manifests itself in this same notion of the large crowd of market participants but over an extremely long-time frame of the SP500 (INDEXSP: .INX). Below is a chart of the price action of the index from inception. To put a simple explanation on the chart above. Since the stock market crash of 1929, the price pattern of the SP500 has essentially advanced in a 45-degree angle higher. I will spare you my explanation of the labeling of the chart as to not bore you as those details do little to further my explanation of the analysis. However, I will state that all our society has achieved since in the last 150 years is notated on the above chart. The advancement of technology, medicine, communication, war and peace is all included. For me, this becomes a visual picture of some of the best and worst times humanity has experienced during this time. What is compelling, is some of those pivotal moments barely stands out on the chart. Fast forward to today. After almost a 100-year price advance from the 1929 crash, we are now entering a prolonged period of digesting all those gains. I cannot over emphasize that this area of consolidation I forecast is 100% natural and should be no cause for alarm from a pattern analysis standpoint. As stated, that is a simplified explanation of what a super cycle event wave (IV) accomplishes. Additionally, our last Supercycle event, labeled (II), is an area of digesting gains that was hastened once the events of the Spanish Flu of 1918 were behind us and that pent-up demand was unleased. In the US, those times are referred to as the roaring twenties. Cyclically there are many character similarities in our wave (II) and our current wave (IV). Chief among them was a global pandemic and the aftermath. However, in my form analysis, a wave (II) and a wave (IV) are supposed to alternate in terms of time duration and retracement depth. If one takes place over a short period of time, the other should be long. I can see this sort of alternation I refer to take place every day, as it pertains to the very short timeframes. These patterns, whether long or short term, tend to be fractal in nature. Meaning, if you removed the dates and timeframes from a 1-hour chart of the SP500 and a 150-year chart (like the one displayed above) they would look strikingly similar. To a pattern analyst, like myself, I would be unable to discern what timeframe I was looking at. Nonetheless, the patterns would be instantly recognizable. Because these fractals form and complete on the smaller timeframes, through observation we can forecast the same effects on the much longer time duration charts. These fractal patterns tend to be self-similar and repeating. In conclusion, if what I see unfold each and every day is indeed similar and repeating when observing a price pattern that is 150 years in the making, the conclusion will be a decade or two of dead money due to a long-term cyclical digestion of gains. Call it a “massive reversion to the mean event”. From things like interest rates to income inequality, a total reset to longer term norms. Additionally, if my analysis is correct, the January 2022 stock market highs will not be breached for a very long time to come. This will be a time where investors will be forced to become more creative and pickier, as it pertains to seeking a return on capital. Shortby maikisch7720
BTC Vs US02US30 SPREAD - Interesting • 2s30s spread : The US2US30 spread refers to the yield spread between the 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The chart visualizes the difference, or spread, in yield for these two bonds over time. The 2-year bond represents more of the short-term outlook, whereas the 30-year bond is more indicative of long-term expectations. So, when people refer to the US2US30 yield spread, they're essentially talking about the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates. During typical economic conditions, investors demand higher interest for lending money over a longer period, thus the yield of 30-year bond is higher than the 2-year. However, during economic uncertainty, the spread can narrow or even become negative (also known as a yield curve inversion), which can be viewed as a potential indicator of a forthcoming economic recession. Yield Curve: 1. A yield curve is a graphical representation of the yields available for bonds of equal credit quality and different maturity dates. It is used to measure bond investors' feelings about risk and can significantly impact investment returns. 2. Different types of yield curves can exist reflecting the short, intermediate, and long-term rates of various bond types, such as Treasury bonds, Municipal bonds, or corporate bonds of specific issuers. 3. The shape of the yield curve varies: a normal yield curve slopes upward indicating higher yields for long-term investments; a steep curve usually signals the beginning of economic expansion; an inverted curve suggests potential economic slowdown as long-term investors settle for lower yields; and a flat or humped curve indicates little difference in short and long-term yields. 4. The yield curve can help gauge the direction of the economy, serving as a predictor for potential turning points in the economy. 5. Yield curves allow bond investors to compare Treasury yields with riskier assets such as Agency bonds or corporate bonds. The yield difference between these is referred to as the "spread", which widens during recessions and contracts during recoveries. Longby TraderE92
Have yields peaked?Even though stocks are higher because of this, don’t get too excited that US 30yr yields look like they have found resistance near term. From the looks of it, we have, at least until Friday when the Non Farm Payroll data is due for release. In the near term, the 5% level capped the rally with the 161% extension just above at 5.05%. The daily RSI was overbought and may need to correct before resuming higher. On Friday, if recent history repeats itself, the US jobs data may come in relatively strong (still) and keep rates elevated and planted firmly in the bullish trend we are seeing. Dips back towards the 4.69% level may be seen as buying opportunities.Longby ForexAnalytixPipczar0
Us30 Elliot wave The us30 potential has completed a 5 part Elliot wave impulse move . We are current at 2008 levels . Anything passed this will just signal economic collapse and a depression. Shortby BearishBill226
US 30yr Yields - have we seen end of bond bull market?US 30yr bonds have seen a year's worth of action in the space of a month From 1.90% to below 0.90% to back to 1.90% In my opinion this reversal could be key for the bond bull market since the 1980s If we get a close above 2.10% in 30yr yields I think we have seen a generational low this month Just sayingby WVS_StockscreenUpdated 117
Yields looking crazy. 2 year has pulled back. Everything else no2 years are coming back to sanity. 10, 20, and 30 are parabolic.by curtislanoue0
#us30y #bonds #yields #dxy #elliottwave short welcome bullsThis count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.Shortby alibadshah88Updated 0
The DXY and Yields are Set up to Make a Midday ReversalThe DXY and the 30 Year Yield have been on the decline for most of the day but are now showing signs of reversing back up at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat and a Bullish Shark in the form of MACD Bullish Divergence and PPO Confirmation, respectively. When these two start to rise again it is very likely that the QQQ start to continue down as it is trading at the PCZ of a Bearish Deep Crab and has formed Potential MACD Hidden Bearish Divergence and if it starts to go down it will also give us Bearish PPO Confirmation which from there may result in a fast move down to make a lower low. All of this will likely be triggered by whatever the Fed has to say today.Longby RizeSenpai116
kueINVESTING SIMULATOR BANKING PERSONAL FINANCE NEWS REVIEWS ACADEMY TRADE Table of Contents What Is a Bond? Issuers How Bonds Work Characteristics Categories Varieties How Bonds Are Priced Bond Prices and Interest Rates Yield-to-Maturity (YTM) Example FAQs INVESTING Bond: Financial Meaning With Examples and How They Are Priced By JASON FERNANDO Updated March 09, 2023 Reviewed by CHIP STAPLETON Fact checked by KATHARINE BEER What Is a Bond? A bond is a fixed-income instrument that represents a loan made by an investor to a borrower (typically corporate or governmental). A bond could be thought of as an I.O.U. between the lender and borrower that includes the details of the loan and its payments. Bonds are used by companies, municipalities, states, and sovereign governments to finance projects and operations. Owners of bonds are debtholders, or creditors, of the issuer. our updated Terms of Service.by excitedLlama46190
US Government Bonds 30YR Yeld (US30Y)Supply Shocks are event that tends to increase prices and at the same time slow down economic growth, making production more expensive and less profitable. Paul Volker raised rates from 11% to 21.5% in two years. Today the rate increase went from 0.25% to 4.40%. Which of the two target will be achieved?by mgiuliani112
30 year Mortgages Will Get More Expensive in 2022The biggest news in 2022 is not AAPL nor TSLA. It is the sell-off in bonds that has been taking place the first 2 days of the year that are now breaking key structures that few are talking about but soon will be. While many will be quick to point out this is not the 80's inflation, my response to them is it doesn't need to be so much more debt both private and public, bc the cost of servicing that debt is much more substantial today than it was in the '80s. Not to mention we were net exporters then not massive importers like we are today. Markets have been caught flat-footed with the "transitory" meme, as such we could see rates play catch up in 2022 according to the charts. Longby RealMacroUpdated 1117
$US30Y - YIELD GOING HIGHER (REACCUMULATION)Bill Hackman is right, yields are going higher! There have been discussions as to where the yield is going from here. We believe they are going higher based on the the current re-accumulation schematic. This chart will break out and it's not a bull trap. We could see 5.5%-6.5% rates. NOT-FINANCIAL-ADVICELongby PartTimeGenius111
sell us30Recommend that he sell Dow Jones now do a lot of analysis and give you the end result on a plate of goldby Qusay132132333
20 Reasons for sell US30 years Yield 🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️ 1:✨Eagle eye: Since 1987, the market has been continuously declining, reaching its valid low in 2020 and confirming the lows in 2022. This is the first valid low in 35 years. 2:📆Monthly: The market is undergoing a change of character from bearish to bullish after 35 years. However, the high has not been confirmed yet. There is a high chance that the price will make a corrective move to confirm the highs. Over the last 8 months, the market has been in a sideways phase, forming an asymmetrical triangle pattern. It is most likely to break to the downside to complete the move and form a valid high. We can also observe significant demand in the same area. 3:📅Weekly: The overall trend is clear and upward without a valid high. The current market is in a full consolidation phase, creating three higher highs (H3) and almost three lower lows (L3) during the consolidation period, narrowing the price range. A breakout in either direction will confirm the next move, but the bias seems to be on the bearish side. Let's wait and see. 4:🕛Daily: A valid high has been formed with a proper valid low, and the third step has created a higher low (HL), indicating potential downside movements. 😇7 Dimension analysis 🟢 analysis time frame: Daily 5: 1 Price Structure: Bullish 6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: More than 60% of sessions close to the downside, and all downward sessions show strong bearish closings. An inverted head and shoulders pattern has also formed. 7: 3 Volume: 8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL RSI: Sideways for a long time. 9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger Bands: We are experiencing a tight squeeze, indicating that all volatility has dried up. The squeeze breakout will play a major role in the coming days. Let's watch and wait for the breakout below the lower Bollinger Band for confirmation. 10: 6 Strength ADX: Sideways. 11: 7 Sentiment ROC: ✔️ Entry Time Frame: Daily 12: Entry TF Structure: Bullish 13: Entry Move: Corrective 14: Support Resistance Base: Monthly resistance trendline and daily resistance trendline. 15: FIB: Trigger event also activated. ☑️ Final comments: Sell at the squeeze breakout. 16: 💡Decision: Seeking a sell position. 17: 🚀Entry: 3.78 18: ✋Stop Loss: 4.07 19: 🎯Take Profit: 3.1 20: 😊Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3 🕛 Expected Duration: 30 daysShortby Optimum3692
US G 30 Year BondsThis is another scenario which indicates the bond market is going down. RSI is confirming the momentum shift to the down side. Lets see how the market plays out.Shortby AJCRYPTO256
30 year yield: Bullish as everThe long end yields have been climbing recently and many stock market participants are not recognizing this. The long end yields market may be signaling to us that inflation is going to be entrenched longer than what mainstream experts are calling for. On a technical basis the 30 year has now recaptured all the key daily moving averages and looks primed to head higher. Longby Trading-Capital2
Long-Term US Bond Yields Set to RiseWhat if the 2.2% to 2.9% that was once resistance becomes a new floor? Recent changes in the long-term charts hint at more #yield rises.Longby goncalo19710
Short-Term Bond Rates VS RecessionReference chart for my research purposes. This is a study of determining the approximate start of a recession based on short-term bond rates.by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS22109
Usd 30y bond AND DXY Bearish pressure analysis30 years bond shows weakness on the chart while Dollars index is showing a green bar daily divergence, Most assets are having a green bars the 31st March will that stay the same till we all go in march Or take profit and first quarter profit taking will occurr? Most assets are above their 50% from last bottom only the Indexes are currently sitting on a +15% from last bottom This is not a trading advice DYORShortby Wakandian118
✅US30 BEARISH BREAKOUT|SHORT🔥 ✅US30 broke the local rising Support line and the breakout Is confirmed because the 4H candle closed below the line So I am locally expecting a Move down(after potential pullback and retest of the broken support) Towards the target below Around the 96'16'0 area SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ Shortby ProSignalsFx5522