Gasoline Long in the short term, Short in the Long term.
I think we are reaching the end of the Covid bull run for this commodity.
AREF2016 trade ideas
RBOB - (RB) Gasoline The SPR release was a non-event, why would it be.
Less asphalt is preferable.
Heavy Sours are not ever going to relieve Price.
The exception is DOT projects.
_____________________________________________
April to June as the Flip for unleaded fuel production.
Refineries lead this transition and switch over to summer-
blend production in March and April.
In the warmer months, gasoline has a greater chance of evaporating.
Refiners reduce the chance of gas evaporation in your car during the s
summer by producing gasoline blends that have lower Reid vapor pressure,
or lower volatility.
This isn't going to affect price this year.
______________________________________________
The Variant will, demand for Gasoline
Liquid fuels will increase by 3.5 million b/d in 2022 to average 100.5 million.
Given demand is well below 100 Million, we doubt this.
War Drum will likely have the desired effect and those are rapidly building
Globally as China has become an Isolationist.
Russia is keen on pushing back against an attempt to regain the upper hand in
NATO for the purposes of putting Putin in a corner.
2022 has the potential to be a very challenging year on many fronts.
Price volatility will increase dramatically as Energy moves in far greater swings.
________________________________________________
There is a rather Large Daily GAp Above.
oilgas at the pumps tells the oil, can't have one without the other. Oil support at volume profile for now, who knows how much more lockdown ahead with the clowns
Bearish Flag Pattern Setup on Gasoline, Target at 2Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. Gasoline futures (RBOB) appears to be in a bearish flag pattern setup. The pole of the flag can be seen from the sharp decline from 2.55 highs to the initial low at 2.31. Then RBOB began to gingerly channel lower and is currently retesting the 2.31 support level. If RBOB breaks below that support, the futures contract is expected to decline towards 2. A negation of this move will be observed if RBOB breaks above the resistance trendline towards 2.35.
From a Daily perspective, RBOB is pulling back from the 2.55 highs. Next levels of support on the Daily Chart is seen around the 2.10 price level.
Technical Indicators
On the 4-Hour Chart the moving averages (MAs) are above the RBOB price. Also there have been negative crossovers on the short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The RSI is below 50 with the KST recently having a negative crossover.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go short at market, with a stop loss at 2.35 and a target of 2. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 3.39.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
Gasoline babychart is clear
- harmonic pattern
- sharp move needs correction, 0.382 - 0.5 .......
- volume rsi divergence
Gasoline Back down to 2.18This one should be interesting. with so much uncertainly around oil generally, it seems gasolines recent move up has run out of steam.
I'm expecting this back down to 2.18.
RB - RBOB Unleaded GasIn_Flay_Shun - EX - Food & Energy isn't working out too well.
Unleaded Gasoline:
The Trend it is said - IS Your Friend
October 25, 2021 3.476
October 18, 2021 3.416
October 11, 2021 3.36
October 04, 2021 3.285
September 27, 2021 3.271
September 20, 2021 3.28
September 13, 2021 3.262
September 06, 2021 3.273
August 30, 2021 3.237
August 23, 2021 3.243
August 16, 2021 3.272
August 09, 2021 3.269
August 02, 2021 3.256
July 26, 2021 3.232
July 19, 2021 3.247
July 12, 2021 3.227
July 05, 2021 3.216
June 28, 2021 3.185
June 21, 2021 3.153
June 14, 2021 3.161
June 07, 2021 3.128
May 31, 2021 3.119
May 24, 2021 3.112
May 17, 2021 3.118
May 10, 2021 3.051
May 03, 2021 2.981
April 26, 2021 2.962
April 19, 2021 2.945
April 12, 2021 2.939
April 05, 2021 2.945
March 29, 2021 2.941
March 22, 2021 2.954
March 15, 2021 2.94
March 08, 2021 2.857
March 01, 2021 2.796
February 22, 2021 2.717
February 15, 2021 2.588
February 08, 2021 2.548
February 01, 2021 2.495
January 25, 2021 2.478
January 18, 2021 2.464
January 11, 2021 2.403
January 04, 2021 2.336
December 28, 2020 2.33
December 21, 2020 2.311
December 14, 2020 2.247
December 07, 2020 2.246
November 30, 2020 2.211
November 23, 2020 2.194
November 16, 2020 2.202
Not everybody is betting on cheap gasolineCowen on Crude: "We forecast a 1.8MM bbl crude build, in-line with API and seasonal historical levels. Imports could increase 0.4MM bpd w/w while exports fall 0.4MM bpd. We estimate that refinery throughput will increase 0.1MM bpd w/w. The production adjustment could fall 0.1MM bpd w/w."
On Gasoline: "We forecast a 3.9MM bbl gasoline draw compared to API's 0.5MM bbl build and seasonal historical 2.6MM bbl draw. We estimate last week's demand was in-line with reported levels; our 4 week average demand is 2% below 2019 levels, compared to DOE's reading of flat. We estimate 2% lower demand from 2019 levels for this week, or a 0.5MM bpd decline w/w. We have refinery output flat w/w from our estimated level last week. Imports may also be flat w/w while exports could increase 0.2MM bpd."
RBOB - (RB) GasolineThe price for 42,000 gallons of NY Hub Unleaded Gasoline continues to move higher.
Every Dip is bought.
Weekly Volumes witnessed the Sell Week of 10/17.
The Dip, of course, was bought.
It is simply following the trajectory of Crude Oil... or is it.
When RB was trading below $2.20 - the price of at the pump Unleaded...
Yeah, naw, it wasn't too much less than it is now.
Per Mile Taxes ahead.
Gasoline Price is breaking the Resistance zone at 2.50 ! Prices are soaring amid a spike in the price of oil, which is refined into gas for cars. The national average price of gas has been at a seven-year high in recent days. Technically price is breaking the next key zone and going up. Price has touched this key zone multiple times since 2011:
04-Oct-2011, 23-Nov-2011, 19-Dec-2011, 29-Jun-2012, 07-Nov-2013, 15-Sep-2014.
Motion Lotion Futures Appear Suspiciously Soggy ⛽🏎️📉Put away those Oklahoma Credit Cards,
Gasoline Prices appears set to soften.
Rallies post 13th August have Bear Market characteristics.
Subtle though market is also making lower highs.
*Short ideas are SELL ideas only, don't support outright short selling.*
Peek the detailed breakdown notes
in the high def chart links below :
NYMEX:RB1!
AMEX:UGA
Gasoline Down to $2.175Oil, Gasoline etc quite over bought, we need a correction.
Lets take this down to 2.175 and re assess. i imagine there will be a pause there before any further falls.
Dont expect downward movement to last long though, oil is very strong generally... so its quite risky shorting, but i can let this opportunity go with a tight stop loss.
Will Gasoline Pull Back to $2.13?I hate to be on the short side of anythign related to oil at the moment, but gasoline has shown some weakness so im going to take a punt on this.
The wedge on gasoline should come to a breakout shortly,. giving a SHORT target to 2.13 at least.
Gasoline Topping outGasoline seems to be topping out. I was surprised that it exceeded the previous high actually.
Moomentum is slowing down, MACD and RSI showing divgernces with the price.
Expect price to retrace down by about 61% of the up move.
Target = 2.11
RBOB Gasoline long because of seasonalityThe long trend on gasoline could end soon, seasonality is showing lower prices in june...
GASOLINE - Down Trend is not your Friend!Looking at the chart, lower highs and lower lows. With that said, hurricane season is around the corner, and the 330k bpd plant in Phili just went up in flames. They lost their Alky unit which produces a boat load of gasoline. I would gamble on this spread in the near term, but have a small position. The reason being the economy is slowing and less gasoline might just be what the market demands.
RB Gasoline target 2.35After breaking above prior swing high the next target for RB Gasoline futures is 2.35
Heating Oil and Gasoline Seasonal Trend UpFor end of may the seasonal trend is showing on average rising prices for the energy markets.
Low risk entries on pullbacks to prior POC and stop below prior days low.
Big things move slowly. How long Gasoline momentum can keep up?The gasoline market is huge and primarily depends on the Oil market which is even larger. When a big market shows a very high momentum most likely it is driven by speculations instead of real demand/supply based on usage (when things are normal).
We can see a sharp price increase from March 2020. The price has faced only one major correction, and the rate looks too high to keep up.
The gasoline market is ready for a big correction. The more it stays without a correction, the sharper the drop will be. It has rejected once from the horizontal resistance level however briefly recovered. For the past few weeks, the price has been increasing slowly.
In the short to medium term, gasoline will be a bearish market.
This is just an idea, not financial advice.
RB Gasoline FuturesGasoline futures at resistance.
We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature.
and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations.
Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing.
This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
