Recession ahead. Media is all about FUD today with "sources cited" for trade talk delays. Such BS manipulation that is allowed by the SEC. Very difficult to patrol when their pay is by the elites who control the media.
I thickened the most important indicator of 10yr-2yr thickened purple... almost there!
Once yield curve inverts you can expect recession to already have started to possibly a wait at most of 2 years... given the fundamentals globally I think recession will happen much much sooner than any central bank will admit. It's to everyone's interest to delay the...
I applied Renko chart to weekly trend of Fed Fund Rates and drew a trend line on the past pivot highs. It looks like the normalisation of interest rate will end at near 3%...
I believe that interest rates will go and surpass 3.5% by 2019. At that point it'll rise a little more then either one, skyrocket, or two they will try to lower rates to neutral again, then it will skyrocket. I believe my generation will experience stagflation.
Slowly but suredly we are approaching multiple sections of yield curve inversion. The data from TV feeds does not show the 3/5 and 2/5 YR yield curve inversions yet as reported last week on mainstream media using other data.
Once again, the chart should be self-explanatory, but I thought maybe some users would be too young to be familiar with some concepts, or simply uninformed. Being concrete 0.00% , the reference rate given set by the Fed is an inflation target. Inflation is a controversial topic, but both sides have points in favour. Inflation is happening, and the logic for it is...
Refer to my old tweet: twitter.com to see trendline resistance where markets unravle as fed funds reach resistance at asset bubble territory. You simply can't have a fiat debt system and not keep running into this issue. It's fundamental.
The latest GDP number suggests inflation-adjusted annual growth of 4.2%.
However, gross domestic income (GDI) (produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis )
Both the GDP and GDI are estimates of economic growth (with one focused on expenditure and the other on income).
The GDP-GDI average suggest economic growth rate to be in the 3% range.
This average may...
- FED FUNDS und 3M LIBOR (hier nicht im Chart) laufen parallel
- Dollar Index (DXY) folgt im Normalfall den kurzen Zinsen (3M Libor)
- Zyklusende bei Überhitzung mit Hoch bei Aktien und Zinsen
Recent expectations in the media regarding Federal Reserve rate hike look a bit overblown. What the Fed is actually planning to raise is the Target Range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate.
The Effective rate, however, now trades firmly below the upper border of the range (0.25%), signalling no actual pressure to raise the Target Range.
The nature of this...
