As you can see clearly on this chart, there is a high correlation between the BofA Option Adjusted Junk Bond Spread Index and the S&P500. While tough to use as a timing tool, when spreads widen to 4.5% or so, many times this is a good time to nibble in the S&P during a correction. When they reach 6%+, generally it is a good time to gorge. When they drop as low as...
Back in November of 2022 I wrote about using the HY-IG spread as a potential indicator of 'risk on' vs. 'risk off' sentiment and I will insert that below for readers trying to understand how this spread differential can be utilized. Subsequently I will explain what I currently see emerging on the above chart with the addition of both the RSI and correlation...
The high yield (junk bond) spread against Treasuries, having earlier moved above the important 4% threshold, continues to advance higher. It has now eclipsed 5%. Accompanying this indicator is the $SPY decline which has caused these "jaws" to move closer to closure. Maintain risk management and stay aware for signs of reversal.
Comparison of US High yield spreads and interest rate. Spreads predict interest rate changes.
When the high yield spread comes down, stocks should rally. If the MACD crosses below the black line it should be bullish for stocks. Lets see how it turns out.
HY= high yield option adjusted spread IG= investment grade option adjusted spread HY-IG Option Adjusted Spread showing significant inverse/negative correlation to the S&P500. When the HY-IG spread (white) rises we see the S&P500 (yellow) fall. The inverse is also true. Spread is currently trending down and SPX is rising which could be indicative of a short term...
When the spread between High-Yield (HY) debt and Investment Grade (IG) debt contracts or expands, this can be perceived as the market demanding more or less compensation for the risk it perceives to be present in owning the HY debt against the IG corporate debt. (HY-IG) = Risk On/Risk Off market sentiment. Generally speaking HY debt a.k.a. Junk Debt, is...
As discussed in part two (prior installments linked below), the duration mismatch between LQD and HYG renders the ratio useless as a tool to assess credit distress or changes in investor preference. Credit ETFs, must be compared to a duration matched ETF, Treasury security or index to be useful. There is also the difficulty in comparing spreads across investment...
In part 2 I take a quick look at high yield corporates and describe a common mistake made in using ETF ratios to monitor changes in credit risk. Part one and an earlier piece that described how to use the TradingView platform to monitor secondary market credit spreads are linked below. If there is any one thing that will produce a Fed policy a pivot, it is...
The decline in junk bonds is generally an indication of high market risk. In this type of enviornment, investors of junk bonds demand higher yields to compensate for additional risks. As bond yields and prices are inversely correlated, higher yields cause junk bond prices to fall; a repeating pattern over the last two decades. When markets face a significant...
Last week, I published a chart that suggested that the market (SPY) was about to enter capitulation mode. The signal was that the rate of change of high yield spreads (bottom panel) had crossed above a level that in 2008, 2011 and 2020 signaled capitulation. However, the indicator has now dropped back below the signal line rather than following through. In...
The ICE BofA US High Yield Options-Adjusted Spread is a measure of the risk premium demanded for high yield (junk) bonds. It is published at the end of each day by the St. Louis Fed. When it is elevated to high levels (above about 4.5%) it can act as an early warning for equity prices. See the horizontal orange line in the middle panel. Last week, on May 11,...
Keeping an eye on the US high yield OAS (option adjusted spread), which is testing the upper limit of a Linear Regression Channel and has the potential to break out above resistance. This credit spread may have reached a year-long, risk-off bottom. Conditions that are deteriorating are a bearish leading indicator. Credit spread widening is bearish, as is price...