After 10 days sideaway move, it is time to decide on HUF. My bet is EURHUF will pop from here again, tgt 315-316. Daily: Ichimoku setup is absolutely bullish, the question is only where to enter long. So far it looks like 10 days of consolidation was enough only for a Kijun Sen retest. Slow Stoch gives a buy signal. What is also important that with next spike...
By now EURHUF is trading above the Kumo, while all other indicators are in bullish mode too. This means the bullish trend looks finally resumed. What can we expect here? I think despite the bullish setup, a pull back is due here as the cross reached an important first resistance ard 310, and also daily Slow Stoch is at overbought level. The pull back tgt based on...
Or should we ask wether it has started already? Fundamentally the negative effects have been piling up for some time now. The main problem in my view is the already super low interest rate environment with a still dovish CB, the totally disappeared risk premium (basically shorting HUF against quite a number of other ccys is a positive carry now on longer...
This is not a trade idea, just a simple technical checklist on EURHUF, due to a request from a friend of mine. Basically we have seen a heavy increase in weight of HUF since mid April-beginiing of May. However I have to note, that the big game was rather short USDHUF among professionals. Despite NBH cut base rate further and they still the same dovish, HUF...
Seriously I don't understand what the hell can be so attractive in the Goulash currency. Nothing has changed and I think nothing will change in economy policy there after the elections. I talked to some of my friends who work as fx spot traders or rate traders in bank treasuries, asked them what do they see or hear from major customers, what are the idea behind...
After breaking below prev. range bottom, EURHUF started a new consolidation phase within the daily Kumo. Since daily Slow Stoch is oversold and will be turning to bullish soon, I recommend to close all shorts and start looking to accumulate small contra longs in 306-307,50. (stops to be placed below 305). I expect a wave up to 310-311 levels next. Maybe it can go...
Despite fundamentally HUF is the weakest chain among EM ccys, technically we have interesting change now which we have to pay attention to! Daily: DMI crossed bearish, MACD has had massive negative divergence for some time now, Tenkan/Kijun printed a bearish cross (weak sell signal as happened above the Kumo), the higher lows of the chanel (which is the same as...
Long term I am still very bullish for EURHUF, but hey, look at this range which still persist! Who is on the top? For me it looks like policy makers do not want to see it a lot higher than 314-315. General election is due on 6th/April, so I would not be surprised if there have been some "silent intervention" behind the curtain. (btw as far as I know NBH ccy...
... if you stay in a double top, then short. A lot depends on the mood of the international...