6C Possible Higher Low Major trend reversalGood for at least a scalp.
Possible long ride on a retracement
MCDM2024 trade ideas
CAD - Futures - 23/04/2024CAD holds one of the highest non commercial vs commercial positions, it has shown strength last week when there was very positive news in the US and CAD held price between 0.7292 and 0.7229. Creating a pinbar which the price was rejected against going lower.
We have gone into the trade with a 0.5% exposure.
Canadian Dollar Futures Trading Plan and ExplanationAfter analyzing options trades on CME, we found a promising opportunity to short Canadian Dollar. The option contract is for April with an expiration date of April 5, 2024.
We noticed an interesting option portfolio on March 22 that aligns with the trigger level on the futures chart (refer to chart). A trigger level is a graphical pattern on the underlying asset that
prompts traders to take or avoid specific trading actions.
For the Canadian futures chart, the trigger level is the price breakdown of the local resistance at 0.7403-0.07406. Opening long positions at the breakdown point was encouraged by the bullish shape and intensity of the candlestick with minimal shadows. This level was attractive for making purchases for both chartists and adepts of candlestick analysis.
The study of options trading has revealed that these levels are useful for opening counter positions when the price reaches them. To execute this strategy, smart traders use naked options in advance, specifically PUT options with a strike of 0.74. By utilizing the leverage effect of options, traders can create substantial short positions on futures contracts while maintaining a risk-free position for a limited time.
IMPORTANT! We do not expect the price to move towards the strike level. Instead, we recommend using the obtained exchange data and analyzing it to gain an edge when opening a trade, providing a better starting point and improving the risk/reward ratio.
CAD - Futures - 24/4/2024 CAD Futures - Last week we had a very strong price rejection which created a weekly pin bar.
but we needed more evidence to support this. This evidence came in a form of Commercials changing positions which is at 91,572 net positions. This is the highest net position in the last 26 weeks.
Also in another weeks time we will have the NFP and CPI reports coming out and CAD is now showing strength against the Dollar prior to these reports coming out
Long CAD futuresPossible long trade on Canadian dollar futures (short USDCAD, same setup upside down)
30min uptrend formed with 200 ema confirming trend direction
Recent swing HH acting as support zone along with 61.8% fib retracement
Volume profile POC closing higher for 4 consecutive days. Yesterdays volume profile closed with POC at the high of day and as a double distribution. Price filling in the volume cave at the level of support.
Trigger:
Break out counter trend LH
or
Break of counter trendline
Stop loss below range low
Target at recent swing high
CADUSD DAILY outlook same structure XABCD in the pass huge consolidation ...needs to retest back up before selling out to make LL then up again for Higher highs
Potential Reversal in the Canadian Dollar: Analyzing Supply and Overview:
In recent trading sessions, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has displayed weakness, particularly since encountering weekly supply levels. However, there are indications that the CAD might be poised for a turnaround, especially as it approaches a daily demand zone. Analyzing the charts, we observe a potential opportunity for CAD strength, with key technical factors hinting at a shift in momentum.
Technical Analysis:
Weekly Supply Impact: The CAD has experienced a period of weakness following its interaction with weekly supply levels. This suggests significant selling pressure in the market, impacting the currency's performance.
Daily Demand Zone: Presently, the CAD is situated within a daily demand zone, which often serves as a crucial area for potential reversals. Traders typically monitor such zones closely for signs of price action indicating a shift in sentiment.
H4 CHoCH Signal: On the H4 timeframe, We have a change of character (CHoCH) is signaling a potential turnaround. This indicator can provide insights into buying or selling pressure within the market, potentially indicating a shift in momentum favoring the CAD.
Target Levels: If the CAD manages to find support within the daily demand zone and the CHoCH signal confirms bullish momentum, we could anticipate a retracement back towards the 0.7400 levels.
Longer-Term Outlook: A break of the prevailing downtrend line, coupled with the removal of opposite supply, could pave the way for a sustained upward movement in the CAD. Such a scenario could signal a longer-term shift in market sentiment towards CAD strength.
Conclusion:
While the Canadian Dollar has encountered resistance at weekly supply levels, the presence of a daily demand zone and favorable technical indicators suggest the potential for a reversal in CAD fortunes. Traders should closely monitor price action, particularly around the identified support levels and the CHoCH signal, for confirmation of bullish momentum. A break of the downtrend line could mark the beginning of a longer-term upward trajectory for the CAD, offering trading opportunities for those positioned accordingly. However, traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies in response to evolving market conditions.
#CAD CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES:Continuation of selling pressureThe supply of the 0.7600 level is still ongoing. Due to the selling pressure formed in the price chart, there is a continuation and resumption of the downward trend.
We expect the price to decrease to the level of 0.7200. Demands at this level can change the price upwards.
Exploring the Impact of CBDC on Forex Trading in CanadaI am reaching out to discuss an intriguing topic that has been gaining significant attention in the financial realm: the potential impact of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on forex trading in Canada.
As you may be aware, the introduction of CBDC has sparked numerous discussions and debates among forex traders. The purpose of this idea is to delve into the concerns raised by these traders and shed light on how the implementation of CBDC could potentially affect their trading strategies, market liquidity, and overall dynamics of the forex market.
Forex traders have expressed several apprehensions regarding the introduction of CBDC. Firstly, they are concerned about the potential disruption to their trading strategies. Since CBDC would be a digital representation of the national currency, traders fear that its introduction could alter the existing forex market dynamics, making their current strategies less effective or even obsolete.
Moreover, market liquidity is another aspect that traders are closely monitoring. The introduction of CBDC could potentially impact the liquidity of the forex market, as it may attract a significant portion of trading volume towards this new digital currency. This shift in liquidity could have implications for traders who rely on the current market conditions and liquidity levels to execute their trades effectively.
Furthermore, the overall dynamics of the forex market might experience some changes with the introduction of CBDC. Traders are concerned about potential shifts in exchange rates, volatility, and the relationship between different currency pairs. These changes could create uncertainties and challenges for traders who have built their strategies based on the existing market dynamics.
In conclusion, the potential implications of CBDC on forex trading in Canada have raised valid concerns among traders. The impact on trading strategies, market liquidity, and overall forex market dynamics are critical factors that need to be carefully considered. Understanding these concerns and their potential consequences is crucial for traders and policymakers alike.
cointelegraph.com
6CZ3 Short TrudeauShort Trudeau Coin,
Entry date 11/10 expected position exit 11/29, 15 year hit rate 93%. Let's Go.
"hopefully this won't end up like my copper trade...." -KewlKat
Canadian Dollar CrashI see a clear Head and shoulders pattern forming which would take prices down to the even number of .70
Last Dance of the Loonie and WTI? The correlation between WTI and Canadian Dollar seems to be breaking down, at least in the short term. Not sure the reasons for this, but posting to hear thoughts. For those unfamiliar with the WTI/CAD correlation, I have added some context.
The Correlation: How Are They Connected?
Commodity-Driven Economy : Canada is known for its abundant natural resources, including oil. The Canadian economy is heavily reliant on its energy sector, which includes the production and export of oil. When WTI crude oil prices rise, Canadian oil exports become more valuable, leading to an influx of foreign capital into Canada. This increased demand for the Canadian dollar can result in its appreciation against other currencies.
Economic Health : The Canadian economy's overall health is closely tied to the energy sector's performance. When WTI prices surge, it often indicates increased economic activity, which can benefit Canada's economy and, consequently, the loonie. Conversely, when oil prices plummet, it can have a negative impact on the Canadian economy and lead to a weaker Canadian dollar.
Risk Appetite : Like many commodity currencies, the Canadian dollar tends to strengthen during periods of risk appetite. When global economic conditions are stable, investors often flock to assets like oil, which can lead to higher oil prices and, in turn, boost the loonie.
CAD FUTURES, Bear-Flag-Formation, Upcoming BREAKOUT!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about the CAD FUTURES on the weekly timeframe perspective. The index recently continued with bearish developments after printing several lower highs. Now important further determinations need to be made as such an bearish price action can activate further continuations if there are no main reversal signs to consider. Within this case I detected important developments with the CAD FUTURES which could signal a potential bearish price action and long-squeeze on the road.
When looking at my chart you can watch there the CAD FUTURES continued to print these several lower highs always pulling to the downside off the descending trend-line marked in red. Furthermore, the CAD FUTURES have the 65-EMA marked in red as a main resistance within the already established downtrend. Within this downtrend the index formed a wave-count towards the downside with the waves A and B already formed and with the wave B actually forming this crucial bear-flag-formation likely to complete in the next times.
Once the breakout below the lower boundary of the flag-formation has shown up this means that CAD FUTURES are going to set-up the origin of the wave C extension and are going to continue with the extension till the main targets marked in my chart have been reached. Once the targets have been reached it will be important how the index continues from there on because if the bearish momentum increases massively in this case there is an increased possibility for the index to continue within the bearish-continuation-zone. In the next times the final breakout-determination will indicate the further price action. In any case, it will be an important development to consider.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
Canadian Dollar Futures6C Futures hit a major support level
Bullish push has already started
**This is just my trading thought process and does not constitute as financial advice.
**Trading with proper risk management.***
CAD Financial Losses: Trading in the Forex market carries the risk of financial loss. It's important to carefully assess your financial situation and only invest funds that you can afford to lose without affecting your lifestyle or essential financial obligations.
USDCAD Bullish Opportunity (inverted scale Future Contract)This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
CAD
Remember, Forex trading involves risk, and there are no guarantees of profit. It's important to invest only what you can afford to lose.
Can Canada finally breakout of its slump???CME:6C1! has been consolidating at recent lows for so long. Finally, there has been a break out of a large pennant on the weekly time frame with a smaller bull flag forming now, but can Canada keep the momentum going???
CADUSD - Accumulation patternsHi traders
The Canadian dollar draws an accumulative pattern at today's session. We are currently seeing a breakout from the range on a large volume, which suggests taking an upward direction after quite a long consolidation in the European session
Ways to improve chart reading part 3 - Support and ResistanceThis is the third in a series of articles looking at some key tools and different practices that can improve your chart reading skills and your trading overall.
Previously we talked about volume and its role in chart analysis. Still, there is one more feature of volume that can help traders to avoid critical mistakes as well as find good entries to their trades.
Traditional technical analysis looks at tops, bottoms of the market, channel lines, trend lines, Fibonacci levels etc to identify support or resistance, but does not consider bars with significant volume at all. At the same time the tops, bottoms and sometimes the closes of bars with relatively big volume (called Ultra-High Volume or UHV in Volume Spread Analysis) create very serious support/resistance to the price moves. In many cases the professionals prefer to test areas where Ultra-High Volume has appeared for supply or demand before the price pushes away significantly from there, as its presence may impact price movement and cost them a lot.
Look at the chart for Canadian Dollar futures (CME:6C1!) above. First an Ultra-High Volume bar appears on February 16th 2023 at 15:00 UTC+1 time zone. The top and bottom of this bar (marked by the blue dashed lines) create significant resistance. To push the price above it activity (volume) will be required. Later, on February 17th 2023 at 15:00, another huge volume bar appears showing weakness. The effort on this bar was enough to move the price through the 0.7419 level (the bottom of the previous UHV bar) and seeing the change in the direction of the moving average to the up side, many traders may start to consider long trades around 03:00 on February 20th.
Without looking at volume on the bars, they won’t be able to recognize the level of 0.7439 (the top of the first UHV bar in the picture) as a potential resistance. In fact, the volume diminished there, making it impossible for the price to go higher. Then we can see further selling around UHV tops and bottoms in the 0.7419-0.7439 range of the first UHV bar in the picture on February 21st at 9:00 and at 13:00 .
The bottom of the 14:00 bar on February 21st (0.7392) creates another level of resistance and again, the price respects it drifting around for some time. Any attempts to go above (as on February 22nd at 13:00 or 19:00) have met more professional selling (the bottom of February 17th 15:00 bar).
The VSA methodology teaches us how to identify the movements of the professionals so that we can follow them. From the above example you can see how price acts around the tops and bottoms of UHV bars. This confirms bars with big volume are very important to consider because either the presence or absence of professional activity there may reveal what smart money are planning to do. We can therefore trade accordingly.
CAD prepares for its next move down1. CAD is in a strong bearish head & shoulders pattern.
2. CAD shows lots of weakness on the back of persistent US and G7 inflation numbers, with BoC being the first to pause rates amidst a slowing economy in Canada.
3. At this moment, 6C showing a false breakout before its next move down.
