Quick ES Setup RecapJust a quick entry setup recap in the midst of today. Overall, we are still basing within the range I posted Saturday though. CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MES1!
ESZ2013 trade ideas
BUY IDEA S&P 500-E MINIThe S&P 500 index can be bought in two specified support areas in two steps and profit from it up to the specified targets
5/18 | $ESLast week, we were expecting a dip and rip. That is exactly what we got! However we dipped a bit less than expected, hence why I never alerted a big buy signal. Missed the easy move to new all time highs.
On Friday, we saw end of day strength, creating a few gaps of interest below. Lower time frame areas of interest around 5317 and 5310 looking for support. If those fail, watching 5295 as a strong support.
Just picturing in my charts what I think will happen next weekLong, trap for buyers coming soon. Overall market been oversold for years when will we dig deeper is the questions for me every quarter... a broken clock has to be right at least once ??
Short term analysis for ES or MESCME_MINI:ES1! Broke out a 1 month flag on May 6th (in white). This pushed us to all time highs and now the spot buyers want to get over for next week is the 3 month megaphone resistance at 5349 area (in green). Get above there and buyers can push for 5374. If sellers want to dip us this upcoming week, it can start on the fail of 5302. which will target 5274 area.
now realize, it has been one hell of a run, coming off 10 straight greed days. Consolidation between 5302-5349 is ideal for Monday in my opinion. Only time will tell!
S&P 500 Hitting Heavy LiquidityES1! showing signs of heavy resistance to price movement, AKA liquidity in this rarified air. The daily ranges for the previous two trading days will be monumental in the market deciding its direction, as there is a lot of interest packing in at these levels.
5287 to 5349 are the outer limits with 5318-to-5323 also being important inflection points as this plays out.
Volume has notably been low during the melt-up that got us here, but this low influx of volume has seemingly run into a wall of resting orders.
I lean short, but will wait for confirmation either direction.
ES Futures Double Top Rejection- 3 Failed tests on 4h timeframe
- Price breakdown (hourly bear flag)
- Price targets: 5226.75, 5153.75, trailing stop
- Stop Loss: 5350 (break into ATHs)
ES Hourly Bear Flag- Strong rejection of a key level
- Bearish structure formed at top of range
- Possible exhausted bull run?
ES High of Day FailureES failed to break above high of day earlier. OPEX typically leads to chop, but I'll be watching to see if we can get any momentum tonthe downside.
Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market shows signs of fatigue after 10 consecutive green days. Traders are anticipating a pullback and adjusting strategies accordingly.
Important Note: It's OPEX Friday, which often leads to choppy price action and pinning (price moving a lot but ending near the starting point). Exercise caution and be prepared for potential traps.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5309-11 (major), 5294 (major)
Major Supports: 5271 (major), 5249 (major), 5217-20 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5329-31 (major), 5342 (major), 5361 (major)
Major Resistances: 5398-5400 (major), 5433-36 (major)
Trading Strategy
Post-Rally Caution: The market is overdue for a correction after the recent parabolic move. Prioritize protecting profits and consider reducing exposure.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5309-11, followed by a reclaim above 5314, as a potential long entry point.
Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, look for a test and bounce/failed breakdown at 5309-11, then consider shorting at 5306 for a move down the levels, exiting all runners at 5294. Proceed with extreme caution as shorting in an uptrend is risky.
Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending 5309-11 is crucial for maintaining short-term bullish momentum. A hold here would allow for further base-building and potentially another leg up to 5330, 5342.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5309-11 triggers a more significant dip. Consider shorting at 5306 after a bounce/failed breakdown confirmation, with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for May 17th, 2024
🌍 Eurozone Financial Stability Risks: The European Central Bank has issued warnings regarding the fragility of financial stability in the Eurozone amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties during a significant election year.
💼 U.S. Defense Spending Surge: Recent U.S. military budget allocations have reached new heights, with significant implications for global military and defense strategies.
💰 China's Treasury Sell-Off: In a notable shift in financial strategy, China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency bonds, marking a record sell-off that underscores evolving trade and economic relations.
📉 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Strategy: The Federal Reserve signals a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic recovery.
📈 Global Trade Dynamics: A significant rebound in global trade is anticipated, driven by easing inflation and robust economic activities in key regions, promising a shift in international trade flows and economic recovery.
ES Trades Ideas for the DayES tested the 5333 level several times overnight and couldn't break. It's trying again now whil VX is at the bottom of its range. I'd expect ES to fail here, but it moves above and VX makes a new low I'll have to reconsider my short bias.
Bonds Giving Back All the CPI Rally. Is the SPX Next?I am really into the bond / stock relationship. Higher interest rates leads to an alternative to stocks, especially when stocks at all-time highs. The huge stock rally on Wednesday was helped by a big bond rally. Now the bonds have given up the entire rally. This could lead to bearish index futures patterns more likely to work.
ES Short IdeaI like this path on ES. If it plays out, 5300 will be a critical test. We could see a move back to 5200 if it doesn't hold.
Fakeout City for ESES had a bull flag breakout and it looked like it was going to hold on a retest but the. It dumped. It tried to break low of day earlier and bounced, VX is barcoding. This bull flag has had a fakeout to the upside and downside no. Most important level for me is still 5300.
ES Day Trade Long Idea ES is continuing the run from yesterday and VX remains dead. I like longs for today. If it breaks premarket highs, I'll look for an entry on a retest.
The S&P and NQ Breaking Out? What to KnowE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5333.00, up 63.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,691.75, up 276.75
We have fresh record highs in the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures. So, where to next? Let’s not put the cart in front of the horse; we MUST first break out decisively and close out above the previous record highs from April 1st and March 21st, respectively, on a weekly basis. If this move struggles to follow through, we will look to a number of support levels leading into major three-star support defined by yesterday’s data spike and opening hour trade at 5303.25-5308.25 in the E-mini S&P and 18,532-18,547 in the E-mini NQ.
Powering yesterday’s move was momentum; E-mini S&P futures secured the ninth positive session out of ten, with the only miss being a 1.00-point loss on May 13th. Next, earnings broadly have been solid, with leadership outperforming expectations. Lastly, the heartbeat of this record run comes from slowing economic data, and specifically, after three hotter-than-expected CPI reports, yesterday’s slower read encouraged a risk-on move and an unwind of negative positions (short covering). It is not only CPI thought, the job market is loosening up, the Services sector is beginning to show holes, yesterday’s NY Empire State Manufacturing contracted larger than expected, and Retail Sales slowed. This has all contained a rally in 10-year yields, sending it to the lowest level since early April and helping to stoke the risk-appetite. Today, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 66.7% probability the Fed will cut twice this year.
This morning, we look to Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, and Housing Starts, all due at 7:30 a.m. CT. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 a.m. CT, and traders must also keep an eye out for Fed speak.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 5343.25**, 5400-5420.25***, 5459.75-5474.25***
Pivot: 5333-5333.50
Support: 5321-5325.25**, 5315.25-5316.75**, 5303.25-5308.50***, 5286.75-5292.75***, 5269.50-5274.25****
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,687-18,709****, 18,825***, 19,085***, 19,319***
Pivot: 18,645
Support: 18,602-18,613**, 18,532-18,547***, 18,446-18,485***, 18,415**, 18,336-18,371****
Micro Bitcoin (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 66,495, up 4,660
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 66,045-66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646***
Pivot: 65.700
Support: 64,540-64,975**, 63,440-63,900**, 62,995***
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ATHS?Been calling aths since NFP. Price respected 1D FVG on both indices.
Labels for potential TPS
Wick might hold up price
2024-05-15 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
US CPI came in line and it was obvious that we would melt then, since yesterday PPI was hot and we melted anyway. Now we get a deep-pullback the last weeks after new ath’s and now we got the retest or new ath’s. From a technical point markets are now absolutely free to do whatever they want. Right now the momentum is clearly bullish but since everyone and their dog is long and Friday is OPEX, I would not be too sure of more parabolic upward moves. If we continue up, I happily join the bulls as I did today.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: 10 consecutive bull bars on the daily chart. Talking about parabolic buy climaxes… It would be funny, if we just straight off sell down from here on. Overbought does not even come close to describing this but this can go on much longer than I could ever think is possible, so best to do is trend following.
current market cycle: trading range - same as dax. If we break strongly above 5340, continuation of the bull trend for probably much higher prices (5500/5600).
key levels: 5000 - 5337
bull case: Bulls want this breakout out of the wedge to succeed and continue the melt-up for 5400/5500. If bears fail to quickly trade back below the 1h 20ema, bulls have no reason to sell out of their longs. Besides that, not much technical stuff to talk about. Since yesterday’s PPI spike, we had consecutive buy climaxes and pull-backs are shallow. Invalid below 5290.
bear case: Market is the definition of overbought, yet here we are. Bears need to start doing anything to get some bulls to take profits. As for now, this is just bullish and bullish only but do you really want to buy the ath for new longs? Momentum scalps, sure but besides that, I would rather wait. Bears need to break below 5300 and retest today’s open. Then we wait for the bulls to react and based on that we can talk about new lower prices. Invalid above 5345
short term: Neutral - trend is clearly up but I rather wait for now and see what the market does up here when OPEX is around the corner.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months.
trade of the day: The CPI spike got a pull-back to exactly the 50% retracement. Textbook buy at the 5m 20ema.
ES UpdateAnd now we're overbought on RSI and MFI. Dumped everything before I wrote this post.
Made $4k on this stupid pump by going long yesterday, might take some of that and play for the dip tomorrow, but did well for a quick one day trade so might call it a week and go back to working on projects at home.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought after 9 consecutive green days. Expect high volatility and the potential for a substantial rug pull triggered by the CPI data release.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5257 (major), 5215-17 (major), 5208 (major)
Major Supports: 5162 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5096-5100 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5272 (major), 5302 (major), 5329-32 (major)
Major Resistances: 5362-64 (major), 5398-5402 (major)
Trading Strategy
Expect Volatility: Prioritize capital preservation during the CPI release and limit your trading activity.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5257 (if not already broken) or 5215-17 as potential long entry points after a CPI sell-off. Consider the 5162 and 5133-36 zones for deeper longs, but only on quick recoveries and failed breakdowns.
Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the unpredictable nature of CPI day, avoid shorting unless the market reacts very negatively to the data. Monitor potential back-tests of 5302 or 5329-32, but proceed with extreme caution.
Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively.
Bull Case
Holding Support: If 5217-20 holds after the CPI dip, there's potential for continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range, setting up for a later breakout towards 5285, 5294, and 5302+.
Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5257 (extremely unlikely) to continue upwards with minimal correction.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5217-20, especially if the CPI news is negative, triggers a larger dip. Monitor failed breakdowns at 5162 and 5133-36 for potential long entries.
News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024
📉 U.S. April CPI Report Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating a slight moderation in inflation with headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.6%. This data is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
📊 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The CPI data implies a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments. Despite a slight decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading to market uncertainty about potential rate cuts (Federal Reserve).
🛢️ Sector-Specific Inflation: Significant contributors to the CPI increase included gasoline and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 70% of the monthly rise. Gasoline prices increased by 2.8% in April due to seasonal factors and changes in refinery practices (USA Today).
📈 Global Inflation Trends: The International Monetary Fund projects a global inflation rate decline to 5.8% for 2024, down from 6.8% in 2023. This trend is attributed to tighter monetary policies and a drop in energy prices, though regional variations persist, with hyperinflation in Venezuela and lower rates in developed economies (IMF).
🌐 Market and Trade Impact: High inflation rates can increase export prices, making goods less competitive globally, while countries with lower inflation may see more stable consumer prices and better trade balances. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to influence these dynamics (UNCTAD).
ES Trade Plan After CPIToday's trade plan will be very simple. I'm looking for a break and retest of 5300 for longs and shorts if it fails to sustain and break above 5300.
possibility of a fallIt seems that due to the news, the upward trend has lost its strength, if the resistance is maintained, there is a possibility of a fall
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but cautious given the 8 consecutive green days. The risk of a sudden pullback increases as the market becomes more overbought.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5235 (major), 5221-17 (major), 5210 (major)
Major Supports: 5192 (major), 5174-76 (major), 5144-47 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5262 (major), 5272 (major)
Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5327-29 (major), 5400-05 (major)
Trading Strategy
Chop Zone Management: The 5235-5262 zone is a chop area, making it difficult to trade with high conviction. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5235 or 5210 for long entries. Prioritize reactions at these levels, ideally with quick recoveries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5192, 5174-76.
Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. For those inclined to counter-trend shorting, consider 5272 or 5302 as potential levels, but proceed with extreme caution.
Bull Case
Uptrend Continuation: As long as 5235 holds (or any breakdown is quickly recovered), the bullish trend remains intact. Focus on a potential base building within the 5235-5262 range, followed by an upside breakout targeting 5272, 5290, and ultimately 5302.
Ultra Bull Case: No dip below 5235, with continued basing above it. Reclaiming 5245 could be a signal to add exposure, but only with acceptance and no break above 5262.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5235 would trigger a potential correction. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5231, 5221-17, and 5210 for short entry opportunities, but prioritize a more significant level like 5192 for confirmation and to avoid traps.
News: Top Stories for May 14th, 2024
China's Strategic Bond Sale: China initiates a substantial bond sale, aiming for $140 billion to combat its property crisis and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects.
Russia's Economic Resilience: Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy shows unexpected strength, with GDP projected to outpace the U.S. This resilience is attributed to increased non-oil revenues and strategic fiscal management.
Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Western car manufacturers are flocking to Indonesia for its nickel resources, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Indonesia's growing importance in the global EV supply chain.
Meme Stock Mania Returns: The meme stock phenomenon resurges, with GameStop and AMC Entertainment experiencing significant price volatility following social media activity by influential traders.
Global Economic Concerns: Leaders from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Georgia express apprehensions about the requirements for joining international economic communities, potentially impacting regional economic policies.
China's Bond Sale and Global Implications: China's upcoming bond sale aims to bolster its economy and could influence global interest rates, foreign exchange markets, and international bond market dynamics.
Meme Stock Resurgence and Market Volatility: The return of "Roaring Kitty" to social media sparks a renewed frenzy in meme stocks, leading to dramatic price swings in GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry.
