Since last SPY all time high (weekly close, on 5/18/2015 at $212.99), SPY is still down 1.29%, and same period TLT gained 7.85%. Even during strong rally between Feb and today, TLT just dropped a little bit. With the Fed beating the rate hike drum hard, common sense is that TLT should be sold off from now on given the expectation of higher rate. It will be a...
Dollar strength, Fed hawkish, probability of FFR hike increasing, short TLT breakdown to 124
- After semi-hawkish Fed comments last week. Current probability for June rate hike stands at 72% to 28% (No-hike vs hike) derived from fed funds futures. Sell the breakdown.
everything comes together in the end long $spy short gold
I will not keep giving these kind of warnings
Has TLT completed a bullish five wave pattern? On the above chart I give you the details of the technique I use with the five wave pattern and a .618 Fibonacci multiplier. To predict the end of impulsive fifth wave in a bullish trend with a 0.618 ratio, you should apply the following formula - SIX EASY STEPS: 1. Determine your 5 wave starting point; 2. Determine...
TLT has been consolidating, had a fake breakout and a higher low and now broke out again closed with a higher high. Next week will confirm/deny next leg up.
A less decisive chart for TLT currently in a wedge pattern. A very simple trade plan; a break and close above the descending red dotted trend line would initiate a long with the expectation of retesting the highs.
TLT closed at a higher low this week. We will see if it can break out (again) next week. Note MACD is a small negative and RSI is on the lower bound of the well defined rising channel.
Hi Folks, I noticed that ending wedges very often (more than 50% of the time) complete their 3-5 section at approx. 0.618 of the time it took them to complete the 1-3 section. The Fib-Time tool is great to spot these things. For the ending wedge in TLT this gives us a target of May 25th for its wave 5 which should mean we are about to see a very significant low...
long over 128.20
Value wavering at current price, possibly undervalued or fell too fast. Bulls have strong upward trends.
TLT broke out and then turned back! Up trend is still intact so far but we will have to see how it goes next week.