Audacity618

Audacity618 Updated 

A lot of good news baked into the current stock price, looking for a modest cash out of holders to send the stock downwards as technical momentum starts to sours.

Audacity618

Not sure if I understand gold's fundamentals and why gold is still high with real rates staying higher for longer. With rate cuts off potentially delayed, off the table, and even potentially going higher I would assume gold would of been impacted already, perhaps geopolitical tensions kept it higher. Would like to see this unwind now from a technical breakdown...

Audacity618

Don't miss out on the rest of the run just because you missed the first move. *** Price action breaking above the 200 moving average after a healthy move that sustained *** Plenty of head space to upper resistance *** Lagging SP500 and NASDAQ

Audacity618

Equities historically will bottom and retrace about 6 months before the bottom of a recession, catching most traders off guard on the next bull run. I particularly like that SPY has cleared the downward trend line that started January of 2022 and was broken this Thursday and held this close of Friday. I would like to see a continuation of cautious daily gains to...

Audacity618

The risk off market with short and long term interest rates on the rise is creating big risk for high growth tech with nose bleed P/E...but who cares? this is been the story for the last couple weeks... I would caveat and say that I don't think we've seen the big capitulation moves quite yet in investors exiting to the sidelines besides NFLX or PTON. These are not...

Audacity618 Updated 

- USOIL is running back up to 52 week - CPI % growth at 40 year highs - Fed signaling hawkish policy - Technical setup: dead cat bounce forming a bull trap

Audacity618

The upper log trend line (resistance) since June '20 has been 100% accurate for short fades on XOM pumps. Giving it a try here for a short term pull back.

Audacity618

TLT breaking down on weekly trend line as long term treasury rates spike. This could spill trouble to equity markets particularly high valued growth. Keep on eye on TLT or TNX.

Audacity618

Big selling on heavy volume last two days reversing post-fed meeting rally. Under the 20 day ema. Inflation and Omicron uncertainty still remain high. High growth tech which has the majority of the market share is tumbling. Only off the highs by ~2.5%.

Audacity618

Rotation into defense sectors like consumer staples has played out well since December 10th's inflation report. With 5% breakaway run into all time highs, I will be looking to play any side ways and downward pressure with credit spreads.

Audacity618

This is a buy high and sell higher set up. From a technical perspective, looking for RSI to get closer to 75. Looking for a stretch to 245 in the DIA etf.

Audacity618 Updated 

Emerging Market are the last to join the rebound from the interest rate sell off where other factors include the dollar (DXY) strengthening. However the fundamentals of the emerging markets are still strong as the global economy rebounds and the coronavirus restrictions cease. Buy the dip

Audacity618

I like the gap down and reversal in today's candle along with this happening at the 5% lower envelope like back in June 2020. Betting long term interest rates cool off a little here. It's a ballsy play from the prior downard movement but I like the risk to reward setup.

Audacity618

Gold is down +6% for ytd and could outperform in the short term as riskier assets get sold off and rotate into gold. Additionally betting on a weak dollar to prop up gold again. Adjusting gold by multiplying it by the USD index gives a better linear trend with more support points .

Audacity618

Gold has been selling off as the long term US Treasury rates have started to rally in recent weeks (TNX TYX). In addition the 'death cross' doesn't help encourage bulls. But I see a double bottom along with some divergence that I think provides an opportunity for a decent risk/reward to swing back up $1,800/oz. The ABCD pattern shows a similar length from the AB...

Audacity618 Updated 

Using an absurd 75% - 20 day envelope on the chart which I think does the job of identifying extreme stretches for this stock. The recent pull back is reminiscent of a blow off the top formation. Don't see why RIOT couldn't halve back to the $30s in the coming weeks even with bitcoin above $50K. Should finish today with a bearish engulfing.

Audacity618

Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of QuantumScape with an overweight rating and a price target of $70 on Feb 11. After the December bull run, QS has drifted lower as concerns loom on it's lofty valuation... looks like the tides are changing and QS is ready for it's next run.

Audacity618 Updated 

Fundamental: fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims, dollar strength, rising interest rates, bitcoin alternative to gold. Technical: strong sell below 200 day and lack of support/trend levels.