Watching this red box area as highlighted on chart, if TLT starts to trade above this area again this sets up a beautiful failed breakdown setup for a move into 94, 100 and then 105-114.
Need to clear 90 for the pattern to trigger/activate and then we go from there.
Good R/R for a long down here, especially with a potential for a weekly hammer to set up a higher low from the 2023 bottom. Especially with a seeming "risk off" in the markets could be an attractive place to look for returns. Been bleeding for a long time... plus take a look at the volume since the bottom.. highest volume since inception at the bottom of the chart
NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92.
Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts.
After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish...
We have a nice convergence on week chart. Normally, bonds start rise half year before recession, so I expect in next 2-4 weeks it will start rising.
1 target - 115$
2 target - 121$
3 target - 135$
But it`s long term investing - 180-360days, so better to wait when it will start rise.
TLT is back on level which took the liquidity on left side and impulsed a massive bullish movement, there is and identified breaker block before the liquidity was taken and also a fair value gap in yellow.
For TLT, I just wanted to share my own ideas, which are not investment advice, about the interaction of recent geopolitical events and expectations, as a note to history.
In the pre-trading hours, I expect 88.3 with the opening and maybe 86.9 with reaction sales. Since I foresee a movement around 1.045 in terms of Euro / Dollar parity, I suspect that there will...
... for a .28 credit.
Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my covered calls (See Post Below) a month for a small credit. Cost basis/break even in the setup is now 90.20.
The small consolation prize is that this keeps my break even right around with the underlying is currently trading.
Nassim Taleb's:
“My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.”
He also said:
"The only economic research that seems to replicate out-of-sample is the work of Daniel Kahneman on behavioral...
TLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent
uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023.
Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time.
Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20.
Relative strength trending correlates with price . I...
... for a 1.09 credit.
Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit.
Resulting cost basis: 89.11.
It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut...
Comments: Getting in at strikes better than what I currently have on in July and August.
July 19th 83: Filled for an .85 credit
August 16th 83: Filled for a 1.11 credit
I'm fine with potentially getting assigned with shares at 83, since they're way below the cost basis of the covered calls I currently have on. I knew this might end up being a very, very long...
Entry: Price broke through the 4H and 1D swing highs. Will be looking for longs/buys if the market taps the bullish zone.
Stops: Close below the all time lows will invalidate the idea.
Take Profit: Discretionary.
Bullish Falling Wedge continues on TLT. Inflation Data is screaming higher for longer, however the Bond Market continues to "prophesy" a Pivot from the Fed. Does the Bond Market see a massive Bank Failure Event in the near future?
... for a 1.55 credit.
Comments: Probably the last addition to my TLT short put ladder for now. Selling the 83's, targeting a break even that is coincident with the 52-week low.
A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point ... with the additional notion being that I won't have to hang out in it nearly as long as the DTE suggests when they do. ...
TLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern.
Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising
to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT
and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value...
