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P1YC34 trade ideas

5/1/24 - $payc - waiting for a better entry, long comment5/1/24 - vrockstar - taking a look again post eps 10% drop and can't find the reason to take beyond a trading position if say opens in the mid 150s. why? overhang from the 3Q result (-40%) on BETI remains a PTSD event/ still w/ wait and see, the 4Q result didn't bring much improvement and now 2Q guide is weakish. this isn't unique to the co, so not specifically a concern on the name per se (it's an industry issue that won't be resolved until likely 2H), so now it's a valuation equation. 10% p.a. revenue growth for '24 and '25 is probably the best bogey we have today and while you can have an opinion on higher/ lower and either get ahead/ or stay patient or away... is that worth barely 3% fcf yield, nearly 20x PE and 5x fwd sales? short answer: probably yes. but is this sort of B2B setup unique? short answer: also probably no. so therefore, any leg down in risk assets/ nasdaq is richest - and B2B software hasn't been the first to be rebid (top 5 caps first, then semis next)... a 10% correction in may/june could see something like a 1.5x beta on PAYC and so another 15% lower beyond the 10% dip AH today. this puts FCF yield closer to 3.5%, PE perhaps in the high teens looks more attractive. net cash means buyback potential here too. risk looks better. so while it's on my "would buy list" i'm looking for a greedier entry below $160 to start buying, $150 I get probably 50% size of would-take risk and in the high $140s or below (beyond any one-off/ news related risk off/ though unlikely the case), i'd be at a full size. wanted to drop some thoughts here for myself and have been posting publicly in case it helps anyone else or ideally someone has a more nuanced POV (I look at everything) and we can debate and learn from each other in the comments. stay well.
NYSE:PAYC
by VROCKSTAR
Paycom May Be Rolling OverPaycom Software has rebounded after a big drop, and now some traders may expect further downside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the November 1 bearish gap after earnings and guidance missed estimates. (The 38 percent drop that day was the biggest in PAYC’s nine-year history as a public company.) It was the second consecutive downside gap on results. Prices stabilized and clawed back roughly half their decline over the course of the fourth quarter. The stock remained above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) during the rebound, but fell under it yesterday. That may suggest its short-term trend is getting bearish again. Second, prices are slipping back toward the falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA). That may reflect a bearish trend over the intermediate term. Stochastics are also dropping from an overbought condition. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures or cryptocurrencies); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association (“NFA”), and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services under federal and state money services business/money-transmitter and similar registrations and licenses. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:PAYC
by TradeStation
Symmetrical TriangleNeutral until broken. Large volume noted today. No recommendation. EPS (FWD) 5.92 PE (FWD) 48.45 Div Rate (TTM) - Short Interest 2.23% Market Cap $16.59B Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. It offers functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company’s HCM solution provides a suite of applications in the areas of talent acquisition, including applicant tracking, candidate tracker, background checks, on-boarding, e-verify, and tax credit services; and time and labor management, such as time and attendance, scheduling/schedule exchange, time-off requests, labor allocation, labor management reports/push reporting, and geofencing/geotracking, and Microfence, a proprietary Bluetooth. Its HCM solution also offers payroll applications comprising better employee transaction interface, payroll and tax management, Paycom pay, expense management, mileage tracker/fixed and variable rates, garnishment management, and GL concierge applications; and talent management applications that include employee self-service, compensation budgeting, performance management, position management, and Paycom learning and content subscriptions, as well as my analytics, which offer employment predictor reporting. In addition, its HCM solution provides manager on-the-go that gives supervisors and managers the ability to perform a variety of tasks, such as approving time-off requests and expense reimbursements; direct data exchange; ask here, a tool for direct line of communication to ask work-related questions; document and checklist; government and compliance; benefits administration/benefits to carrier; COBRA administration; personnel action and performance discussion forms; surveys; and affordable care act applications, as well as Clue, which securely collect, track, and manage the vaccination and testing data of the workforce. Paycom Software, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
NYSE:PAYC
by lauralea
$PAYC attractive entry point (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 could drop further to match RSI hitting solid line (oversold) General Thesis weekly RSI almost touching oversold levels, which have been pretty good entry points Currently hovering around support line of channel established in July 2014 Growth Gross margins (80%) is a lot higher than past few years Revenue growth (30%) is about historical average, bounce from lows in 2020 Value P/S around 75th percentile, although very high compared to rest of market P/FCF is quite high Potential Risks could drop to support (June 2018) history is a little short, only goes back to 2014
NYSE:PAYCLong
by asdf098
1