5/2/24 - vrockstar - good print, decent guide (let's be honest, better execution than other B2B style software), valuation reasonable 5x sales w/ opex leverage and good SMB moat and maintaining >20% pa CAGR growth rates w/ a lot of runway. conservatively modeling cash in my prop model, seeing dramatic upside here is probably not likely until we see some sort of...
5/2/24 - vrockstar - hard to not opine here. valuation is v reasonable compared to the TNX and other big liquid tech considering play on AI integration (tools), VR/AR (even if it's small doesn't matter at all... rn - it's relevant for longevity of growth), services will continue to grow in the mix. lots you can do here. they have so much cash they can only do one...
5/2/24 - vrockstar - tough setup b/c the trends look mediocre at best (esp recent ones). long term compounder w/ awesome moat growth at 4x revenue and 2y fwd PE in the high 20s isn't "expensive" for this type of 30-40% cagr. however, any miss/ investment issues here will dramatically reset the # and the multiple... i'm definitely biased long here but would rather...
5/2/24 - vrockstar - seems a bit rich at 8x sales for sub 10% growth. cash machine, won't have the "guide" problem (well as much as more obvious candidates per the product niche/ security cyber). that being said, high 30s PE just buys you a better aapl, msft, slightly more obvious see-through risk. i'd look to short an outsized pop here to the range highs of mid...
5/2/24 - vrockstar - one of these awkward fundamental setups in a bid tape b/c it seems like outside a massive beat you won't see any sustained rip and follow thru here and instead 2Q guide is likely all else equal to reflect others so far reported (too many to even number). stock seems to have not believed this which is cool - i haven't really dug in yet on the...
5/2/24 - vrockstar - like the setup long here into print. 1) trends probably a 50/50 but 2) not a "discretionary" seller but more a platform for discretionary choice which is an interesting product in this environment esp wrt speech about 2H etc. 2) not really a burner much at all, and beyond healthy cash balance so no dilution/ raise/ sustainability q's about the...
5/1/24 - vrockstar - taking a look again post eps 10% drop and can't find the reason to take beyond a trading position if say opens in the mid 150s. why? overhang from the 3Q result (-40%) on BETI remains a PTSD event/ still w/ wait and see, the 4Q result didn't bring much improvement and now 2Q guide is weakish. this isn't unique to the co, so not specifically a...
5/1/24 - vrockstar - like the prints so far this year, great niche, good b2b unaffected by consumer issues all around but valuation not "obvious" outside of a beat which they should deliver on the MSD range top line. any miss or in line would probably yield a 10-15% correction where you can dip buy w/ more confidence which is my plan. otherwise sidelines on a good...
4/30/24 - vrockstar - obviously expensive but the EPS growth allows to make up whatever multiple. one of few co's that is probably minimally 2 yrs away from whatever nvda is putting out and has capacity to absorb something similar (e.g. groq) or partner w/ someone else. think the narrative on semis remains strong/ bid and any beat here will be a rip and stick. any...
4/30/24 - vrockstar - don't see how they "miss" per se but it's more a valuation equation for me. think guide should be bullish bc it's easy to sell upside here. probably better to just buy amd/ nvda though as any "miss" is hard to dip buy, any beat might be distribution event with low follow thru. i'm potentially buying a dip on a bad amd/ amzn print that sucks...
4/30/24 - vrockstar - tape seems to like these non-ai disruptable names w/ px'ing power, 22x fwd EPS (and growing) seems "cheap" (not really but compared to everything else). good fcf generation. good box open potential. they sell legal drugs. net +ve result here esp seeing the stock float in a bad tape means it's haven.
4/27/24 - outsized move for the stock on eps -17% seems too much. however, growth subdued for next 2 yrs doesn't help. even 8% implied fcf yield while juicy and sticky-ish base... is not exactly what the mkt wants to pay for this -ve growth i'm sensing - it's probably closer to 10% for this type of scale + net cash + sub 5x EV/revenue multiple names. downside here...
4/25/24 - vrockstar - first time i come across this ticker (i look at a lot), wow. great opex flex. software-ish margins, not expensive on various multiples i look at vs. growth looks awesome. chart yes. am i missing anything frens, i think i'm just buying this print b/c i like everything i see including cash gen, captive industry that's bit less discretionary....
4/25/24 - vrockstar - seems like we're a bit long in the tooth here right fam? 1% fcf yield lmfao, 30x PE, yes we can see thru what our lizards have coming in the next disaster which certainly deserves a premium. but zuck and aapl r ahead (way ahead i'd argue) in the next compute platform. not knocking cloud, installed b2b, games etc. but just look elsewhere ppl...
4/25/24 - vrockstar - idk get this - liked/ traded it sub $10 to the long side... but good gawd the rip from last Q made zero sense to me. look at 4q vs. 4q gross profit gen vs. opex spent. going the wrong way. net cash fine, "gen's cash" but it's a lot of non-cash stock comp (and my rule is i only pay for this as cash if the stock is sustainably going higher)....
4/25/24 - vrockstar - idk get this - liked/ traded it sub $10 to the long side... but good gawd the rip from last Q made zero sense to me. look at 4q vs. 4q gross profit gen vs. opex spent. going the wrong way. net cash fine, "gen's cash" but it's a lot of non-cash stock comp (and my rule is i only pay for this as cash if the stock is sustainably going higher)....
4/25/24 - vrockstar - 2x sales, scaling on the opex line and 5 days to cover keeps me from wanting to short this esp after last quarter's result. but the setup looks more +ve than -ve here. the second order problem is a miss sense this into the abyss that's hard to dip buy and you're best to take losses - i don't like that sort of setup. so plan here is to chase a...
4/25/24 - vrockstar - 2x sales, scaling on the opex line and 5 days to cover keeps me from wanting to short this esp after last quarter's result. but the setup looks more +ve than -ve here. the second order problem is a miss sense this into the abyss that's hard to dip buy and you're best to take losses - i don't like that sort of setup. so plan here is to chase a...
