XLK just completed its 3rd weekly Pinbar pattern inside the PRZ of the bearish Bat I've mentioned in my previous analysis. Although there are no clear signs of weakness yet... and we are in the summer...this still should be considered as a warning signal for the bulls and opportunity for bears.
Looking for XLK RSI to move back into the bullish trend zone and the high fib level to breach - then maybe AAPL will start to move!!
With an Implied volatility rank at 49 I did a Straddle with no upside risk (Big Lizard) on XLK for $2.12 per contract. Our break even is at $51.88 price and with 50 days to expiration that gives us a 78% probability of profit. The trade: Sell 18 AUG 54 Call Sell 18 AUG 54 PUT Buy 18 AUG 56 Call
Earnings AAPL announces Tuesday after market close Aug 11th 142/157.5 20-delta short strangle Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $191/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 140.09/159.41 (wide of 1 standard deviation on both sides) Theta: 19.34 Delta: .79 Aug 11th 137/142/157.5/162.5 20-delta iron condor Probability of Profit:...
We have the thought that AMD is selling the shovels to the cryptocurrency rush. With that being the case, their performance within their GPUs have been able to be a stand out product within the industry. We think this quarter will be a special shiner because of the reduction in inventory. One thing to keep a definite read on is what is said by AMD during the...
With this holiday foreshortened trading week, premium selling pickings remain slim. The vast majority of underlyings with 52-week >70 implied volatility rank are in stocks that are ramping up for earnings -- e.g., QCOM (71) with earnings in 15, MSFT (79) (16 days), AAPL (75) (21). In that case, you might as well wait to look at those closer to announcement to...
Interesting to see what tech does here, break up or bounce down to form right shoulder. Bullish volume Friday. RSI looks to have room up so it could also slowly grind up a bit higher
TL from 2006 & 2009 lows and horizontal supply zone from 2000 top
Minor supply zone from 2000 there too
XLK has been one of the main forces behind the U.S stocks market rally since Trump was elected. XLK is up almost 20% since the U.S elections and it is now approaching the 2K tech bubble levels. Bearish Bat pattern will be complete just below 60$ Interesting price zone to watch in near future. Are we near the end? Read more in this week's newsletter...
Monthly chart of Microsoft. Fib and price study. Draw your own conclusions.
Trade Setup: - 1 XLK May 19 45/53/53/57 Synthetic Straddle @ 1.97. DTE: 57 Max Win: $197 Max Loss: $603 (theoretically), but will manage at 2x credit, so ~$200. Breakevens: $51.03 & $54.97 Trade Management: 25% profit; WIll risk full loser to upside and only 2x credit received to downside. I often will take off one of the sides when it becomes...
SPX vs Major Sectors. I added IBB to cover Biotech. Please comment. My understanding at this point is to stay in sectors which have good fundamentals and have been relative laggards. The 3 bottom ones at this point seem to be Financials, Technology and XLU / XLP. Since utilities is a risk-averse sector, so in a pro-growth environment I may want to go with the...
"Bargin price", after failed news and into supply zone + oversold zone. evidence of buyers and increased volatility, could be a quick one.
Buy the next succesfull reversal above the trading range for entering an early trend
Of the top three weighted holdings in XLK, only AAPL is up on higher prices.