Testing times for US 10yr Treasuries.
A timely update to the US10Y Yield chart as we breakout with November highs in scope. We will not be covering US fundamentals here today and instead will focus on key technicals in play. For the flows in our map for today and the rest of 2019 we have the key levels in play (highly recommend adding all to charts): Steel Support => 1.65 Strong Support =>...
A very interesting chart today looking at a Generic US 10Y Yield curve in comparison with Banks vs Utilities ... despite the rising correlation Utilities continue to look expensive and risks are elevated relative to banks. This chart is showing the correlation or asset classes to US10Y moves. The pattern is consistent across the board for Banks which look...
Here a very technical chart with lots of magical trend lines, very clean and easy to follow; a break above the descending trendline to the topside @ 1.85 will negate the long-term downtrend that has been in place. It will expose the September highs at 1.907 and 1.937 respectively. Price will lead sentiment and therefore a break to the topside will imply a round...
With Yields miles ahead of the moves lately we are approaching a major breakout in US banks, a relative breakout here of the downtrend will be significant going into year-end. BKX breaking out will be quite a bullish set-up for the overall market: The major top in USD will help a lot here as we enter into the next chapter in the economic cycle... highly...
As we enter into the final Q, a good time to update the US10Y chart. Those following the previous updates are well aware that we have been tracking the entire leg down: We got the zigzag at the lows as widely anticipated and with the technicals are starting to point higher I look for any signs of a base forming. While my bias is for lower global yields it is...
Huge move down starting late '18 to early Sep '19 (from 3.25% to 1.43%). Whist overall the US 10 yr yield will likely fall over time, a short term retracement bounce to 1.86%, then possibly 2.125%.
The 10Y yield has been falling since it peaked on the 5th of October and 8th of November 2018. On each leg down of the US10Y, ie; from the 8th of November till the 3rd of December 2018, from the 17th of April till the 3rd of June 2019 and from the 29th of July to the 8th of August 2019, the SPX has also correspondingly fallen. However, the DXY, which has been...
Expecting a strong reversal on the 10yr yields. Good Luck.
Here we go for Jackson … Fed policy is what matters this weekend and in my books markets are headed for a bearish surprise. The inverted curve is going to create a USD shortage and keep USD higher which will undermine risk assets. Fed funds are now pricing almost 100 bps of cuts by Sept 2020, though Fed talking heads are saying there is no urgency to move again....
Here we are tracking the soft floor coming in Yields once more. We have been in perfect sync with the previous legs down ahead of the Fed cut fact, now it is time once more to trade the expectation of another 25bp cut, this time in September with Trump and markets trying to force the Powell hand again. The topside of the channel will attract a lot of buying...
As time passes this looks more and more like a 5 wave decline since the October 2018 highs. We are cooking for one final sweep of the lows as liquidity begins to fade for summer. The final hurdle to clear before business will close is Fed, here tracking for a 50bp cut to kickstart the easing cycle. On the technical side; the market will have to break above...
Here tracking a 5th and final leg lower in US yields. The selloff since November 2018 has looked impulsive in nature, since we marked a 4th wave the bounce from the latest lows, the bounce has met the ABC corrective target at 2.141%. We are also capped below the 38.2% and the 50MA for those trading the 'tactical rebound into Fed'. We 'know' the price wont run...
Here we are tracking for a tactical rebound as we go into July Fed to 50-day. The rebound in payrolls last Friday is weighing on market expectations for a 50bps rate cut this month. The repricing we’ve seen is closer in nature to a 25bp cut and with the short-circuit in expectations it is “loading time” again for risk-off assets. Given the circumstances a 50bps...
The risk correction is causing investors to shift exposure away from risky unhedged US holdings… USDJPY looks set to continue the decline towards 106 as Japanese investors shift from US exposure (remember this is largely unhedged via a flat yield curve) to Europe (mostly hedged via a steep yield curve). Japanese pension funds I talk to are especially trying to...
With WTI declining nearly %30 in a short time span and global growth slowing. Investors are long US TBONDS as they are willing to tolerate lower yields from bonds in anticipation of lower inflation and slowing growth. Bonds rising will have a wide ranging market influence. From yields falling, to equities under performing to Japanese investors seeking domestic...
Chart Info Market : BONDS Currency : US10Y Time Frame : D Date : Oct 12 2017 **Don't Forget To Like and Subscribe
This is an update regarding my breakout idea from the weekend. Today the yields failed to push below Friday's low and we got a close back above the trendline. Price is being supported ahead of Trump's speech tomorrow. There's a possibility bulls can push back towards 2.500 this week. I am residing with slightly bullish on the Dollar until further confirmation....