FVX Longer Term Outlook for Rates Since Yellen retired in February FVX has risen to test the the junction of the upper parallel at the same point in time as it hit the fixed resistance line at 29.83. Since then it's been consolidating inside a slowly forming pennant formation with a spike down to the 25.46 line almost exactly before it pushed higher again. Though...
This log chart compares the Gold price in USD to the short term 2 year Treasury yield. Since gold has no yield is it possible it will continue to sell off as 'risk free' treasury yields rise? Some analysts expect the Fed to hike three more times this year and four times in 2019, bringing the terminal fed funds rate to 3.4%. Could potentially the yield...
Every hedge funds and their wife, dog, cats, kids are short bonds. Everyone is trapped in the narrative of the FED's rate hike. The bus of short 10 year treasury is full. Its time for a train derail. In a risk-off environment, do you think the FED will ever hike rates further? Adding another level of uncertainly is the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit...
30 year represents long term growth expectations, the 10 year has already broken out as linked below. This down trend is not as clean of a break as that one and will need a continuation after today's test the of February highs. 10s 2s spread hit ~39bps recently now at 49bps. If we get a confirmation the first target is 3.74 as a measured move which happens...
AMEX:SPY S&P 500 is following a giant descending triangle, even though on 04.18.18 it has not touched the triangle. Overall the market is bearish short term , despite being in the earnings season. In a bullish market some neutral and positive earnings report would have been interpreted as bullish . Increasing treasury yields may be partly to blame. As...
The reason rate drop provide a low risk short entry of LT treasury after a retest at the neckline resistance.
Typically I have seen that when everyone is on one side of the trade its quite easy for the market to make fools of the participants. The speculative short position on US treasuries, specifically the 10 year, is massive (and for good reason). While I remain a longer bear view on these treasuries I think we might end up seeing a short squeeze before we see 3%...
Still cannot know whether the underlying asset will be turning from the 1.382 / .50 or the 1.618 / .618 but there is a strong confluence on both levels which makes me believe that one of them which prove to be a a key reversal point. Also judging by the strong correlation between 10-Y yields and the DXY which is also nearing a major reversal point we could in...
Well Well Well I'm back. It seems that we've had further conformation today of both the downward channel I drew as well as the declaration the 10 year Treasury Note Yields and the DJI are in a chaotic Dionysian dance, which seems volatile, in so far as you don't find the beauty in the chaos. Todays trading shows immediate correlations if you look at the minute...
Short 10 Year Italian BTP Futures as a hedge and catch up play with U.S. treasury and German Bund Yields.
The 10 year appears to want to either break above the resistance or take on more small trip down to the e wave on this a,b,c,d,e triangle. If it hits the lower triangle boundary and then bounces, then probability is greater that it will then break the upper resistance. So if you are looking to lock a rate, or float watch both triangle boundaries to see what...
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EURUSD has a weekly uptrend, from a 'Time at Mode' perspective, and the sentiment is considerably negative for it lately, with the French elections starting the first round tomorrow. This weekend, the IMF meeting takes place, and it might be a very significant event for the Euro. This week is packed with data and potential catalysts for all markets, with...
This is why the stock market has not crashed all this time since 2007-2008.
TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20 YEAR TREASURY - look for short at 40.60 levels
TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20 YEARS TREASURY Bull move anticipated. The motto is "never leave a gap (man) behind...shorterm
Textbook consolidation as we wait for more signals from the FOMC. Fed futures showing no hike in March but two hikes by December, expect another leg up once subsequent meetings start pricing in. Good time to scale in.
I want to first direct your attention to last year, as most traders have also seen the resemblance between the start of the bullish market and this year. This will also play (due to the blatant resemblance) into the fear of bears that have leverage futures to really drive this metal down. Technicals : Second, this is the lowest levels of RSI continuity also...