The note's caught people of guard when the bullish pattern failed. Inflation? That dirty word will bring the notes and bonds to their knees and it's happening. We will short all bounces.
The 10-Year Treasury Note Yield is on the verge of breakdown due to the recent downtrend in oil and consequent lowered inflation expectations. Despite the anticipated FED rate hike, the Yield can actually go in opposite direction (the famous puzzle outlined by Greenspan, the former FED chairman) The breakdown in the Yield will be confirmed on quarterly basis, if...
US debt to foreign investors has doubled in volume since the start of 2009 (which was the height of the financial crisis). This indicates that despite the fact that the crisis occurred and was initiated in the US, the demand for their debt not only did not vanish - it actually spiked. In mu humble opinion, it is a very strong indicator of the actual strength of...
Something I noticed today while look at the 10-yr bond in general (reflecting loan rates). If you didn't already know, the price of the 10-yr bond directly affect any and all loan rates available. Mostly of course affecting housing loans. That's another point aside, but it does look like the price of a mortgage will be expensive over the summer. Anyway, what I...
There are many reasons why bond yields should go down, however, there are many more positive reasons why bond yields will go higher. Demographically Challenged Our largest demographic population on the planet, not just in the US, is the baby boomers born 1944 to 1964. Largely early baby boomers born during WWII and up to the late 1940's have already started...
2007-2012: Convergence between S&P500 trend and yield on Treasury 30y USA: - Downhill stocks leads to a reduction in yields on the bond market . The flow of money coming out of the US stocks and goes to US bonds for the "safe haven" - RISK OFF. - Rise in share prices on stocks leading the market yield bonds to rise due to the vendite.Flow of money out of the US...
USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112% USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4% data up to 10/2014 THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
The 10-YR is seeing demand as every data point in 2015 has come under expectations, while the slump in US economic data began months ago. Key bond gurus, such as Gundlach and Gross, look at the US 10-Y to reach a 1-handle. Safe-haven demand will be a major trend in 2015 as volatility increases, which will drive more traders into treasuries. Initially, look for...
Based on this pattern triggering on a move over ~21.60 you could expect a measured move to ~22 before hitting resistance. The timing of this breakout seems to be coinciding with market topping action which further strengthens the likelihood of this chart having predictive utility. This chart taken together with today's breakout in Treasuries (TLT) and over 30%...