DAX (DE40) is extending a very strong Bullish Leg, which started after the previous short-term correction ended on January 17 2024 with a contact on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is part of an overall Bullish Wave that emerged on the latest Higher Low (October 27 2023) of the 1.5 year Channel Up. However as the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross...
Dow Jones (DJI) has had yesterday the strongest red 1D candle since February 13 and 2nd strongest since the October 27 2023 bottom. Just as recently as last week (February 26, see chart below) we called for a 'very clear bearish signal' as not only was the price near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up but also the 1W MACD was on a...
Exactly 3 months ago (December 06 2023, see chart below), we set a 17800 Target on DAX (DE40) and the index hit that level yesterday: At the time DAX was the first major stock index to hit new All Time Highs (ATH) and as we mentioned it "sent a message to indices globally". And followed they did, as all markets followed this lead and rose aggressively. This...
The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and since last Friday, the price has been griding on its top (Higher Highs trend-line). The longer it fails to convincingly break and close a full week above it, the more likely it is to deliver a technical pull-back. On that technical setting, the 1D RSI...
Nasdaq is forming a new HH at the top of the 1 year Channel Up with the 1W timeframe overbought technically (RSI = 70.596, MACD = 766.660, ADX = 46.154) and the RSI in particular under LH and inside the red Resistance Zone. This is a bearish signal, validation would come upon a 1D MA50 bearish crossing. Our target is the 1D MA100 (TP = 16,850). ## If you like...
Nasdaq (NDX) tested and was rejected last Friday on the 18100 Resistance, which was formed by the February 12 High. This is a technical Double Top formation and as long as it holds, there is high probability for the index to start the new Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up pattern. In fact the recent February 12 High is technically as close of a Higher High for...
On this analysis we view the S&P500 (SPX) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame in order to answer the question of why it hasn't pulled-back since the October 2023 Low. The answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view. First, with the exception of the March 2020 COVID flash crash and more recently October 2022, the 1M...
Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the the 1.5 year Channel Up, while flashing a very unique medium-term sell signal. That is the 1W MACD Histogram, which is declining, a Bearish Divergence that during that period of time, has initiated 3 declines of more than -9% each. Given the fact that the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up...
The S&P500 index (SPX) is having another bullish week with the current green 1W candle being the strongest since the first week of the year. Nonetheless with the 1W RSI overbought at 75.00 and the price very close to the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the late November 2022 High, a short-term pull-back seems probable at the moment. The long-term price...
DAX (DE40) is on a short-term Channel Up, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has held twice in the past month (January 17 and February 13). As long as it holds, we will most likely see a break of the long-term Channel Up, which in time could complete a +20.90% rise as the July 31 2023 High. In that case, we will target 17400 on the short-term. If...
The S&P500 has hit (even surpassed on the liner scale) the top of the 16-month Channel Up pattern with the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (price on Higher Highs while the RSI on Lower Highs). If the price closes a 1D candle below the 4H MA100 (red trend-line), which is dangerously close to, it will be the first such bearish signal since August 02 2023 and the...
Last week (February 08, see chart below), we gave a sell signal on Nasdaq (NDX) as the the price wasn't just at the top of the short-term (dashed) Channel Up, but was also approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up: As the index suffered strong intra-day selling yesterday, following the higher than expected U.S. CPI report...
Today's focus: US30 Pattern – Diagonal Support – 38,135, 37,135 Resistance – 38,810 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the US30 on the daily chart. What a solid run we have seen till yesterday's CPI data. After US CPI came in hotter than expected, this shocked the market and led to heavy selling on stock indexes and...
On this analysis we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) from a very long-term angle, the 1W time-frame going back more than 13 years, since November 2010. That was when the first Megaphone pattern emerged since the 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing (sub-prime) crisis that after testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) it found Support and transitioned into a...
Dow Jones (DJI) is trading within a Channel Up pattern on the 4H time-frame with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting since the January 19 break-out, being right on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). As long as the price action is closing candles above it, we remain bullish, targeting a Higher High at 39100. If it closes a 4H candle below the 4H MA50, we...
DAX (FDAX1!) is currently trading at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the December 20 2022 Low. This is a more than 1-year trading structure and as long as its stays intact, we should see a rejection below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on the previous declines within...
Nasdaq (NDX) is extending its aggressive rise of the Bullish Leg that started on the October 26 2023 Higher Low of the 1-year Channel Up and by the strength of it, it appears it will extend it to the max. That potential max extension is in the range of 18100 - 18300, which is the top of the dashed Channel Up and the top of the dotted 1-year Channel Up, which was...
The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom. This development is a strong sell signal on its own but it gets even stronger as the 1D RSI has been within a Channel Down since December 19, while the price was rising within a Channel Up, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. The...