The S&P500 (SPX) index has been rising non-stop and appears not to be influenced by yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The price reached however the top of Channel Up 1, the pattern that has been driving the price action since the October 13 2022 Bear Cycle bottom. This calls for a technical pull-back similar to the December 01 2022 and February 02 2023 Higher Highs,...
In my previous post on SPX ( link attached below the description ), I explained how we are going to see a rejection on this uptrend soon and we beginning to see that now. In this post I will explain how I am playing this short setup. In the previous post I had a pitchfork. I simplified it with three parallel channels, one larger and two inside it in its upper...
It is not the first time we use the SPX/GOLD ratio (S&P500 to XAUUSD) for a macro analysis and certainly each time it manages to offer us different and very helpful insights. This time on the 1W time-frame, the ratio is consolidating these past 2 weeks but after having broken in late May - early June above the 2022 Lower Highs trend-line. That alone is a strong...
S&P500 (SPX) made a yearly High last week and a Higher High on the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom and guided the market out of the 2022 Bear Cycle. This Higher High opens up two sell possibilities one on the short and one on the medium term. The short term indicates that a Megaphone pattern similar to April 04 - May 04 is...
This update will be quick, Im very lazy this weekend. ES short term was already posted earlier today. There are 2 pathways Im following: 1 - H&S pattern, visible on the chart. That pattern if triggered will make full 5 down into early next year low to finish the whole move down from Jan high. (Fits perfectly with VIX sky rocket from its below 20 level) 2 -...
As you can see there is a lot of confluence at 3970 level (This chart become quite busy with the trendlines) If we do gap down tomorrow below 3970, I will be looking to buy 3928-39SPX level for a broken trendline test, if not more. This chart is similar to the ES, but has a higher level of support, so they have a bit different short term look one from another to...
Nasdaq's (NDX) incredible run (left chart) since the start of the year (+37%) has seen the index break above the Last Lower High of the Bear Cycle (13730) while at the same time avoiding a Death Cross on the 1W time-frame in epic fashion. It even broke above the RSI Resistance of the price's ATH (when the index was on its All Time High). At the same time, the...
We don't often look at VIX but the times we do, it never fails to offer valuable insight regarding the long-term factors on stock indices trends. Since March, may have left wondered why the S&P500 (blue trend-line) has took off so considerably without any meaningful pull-back. Well despite the prevailing fundamentals surrounding the market overall, VIX (candles)...
The S&P500 hit both targets we set two weeks ago as it reached the top of the 7 month Channel Up pattern: This is the first major sell signal that we get on the 1D time-frame since the previous Higher High on February 02 2023. Unless the price closes a 1D candle above the August 16 2022 High (4327), we expect a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue...
Pair : SPX500 Index Description : Bullish Channel in Short Time Frame and Long Time Frame as an Corrective Pattern Break of Structure RSI - Divergence SMC - CHOCH Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves Fibonacci Level - 38.20%
Major bullish signal for the S&P500 (SPX) as it closed a 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of August 15 2022. That was the weekly candle that formed the next Resistance 1 in line, the 4330 level (Aug 16 High). The 1W RSI has already broken above its Rising Wedge since two weeks ago and the 4330 Resistance 1...
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The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us the expected pull-back and buy entry within the Rising Wedge as per our last week analysis (chart below): The long-term structure is a Channel Up, so plan your trades in case of a Rising Wedge break-out. On the short-term, we expect the price to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the bottom of the Rising Wedge at...
The S&P500 index (SPX) hit last week our long awaited 4190 target, a level we set 2 months ago (see idea below): That trade was taken right before the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, the 2nd within the long-term Channel Up pattern. Last Thursday, the index completed the 3rd Bullish Cross of the Channel Up and continues to rise within a shorter term Rising...
We have been so focused on the short-term Channel Up on the S&P500 (SPX) since March (see idea below) that we didn't publish any analysis on the longer term dynamics: This analysis offers critical insight on where we are with regards to the long-term/ Cyclical trend. One parameter that stands out is that the S&P500 index has failed on two occasions to break...
Almost 2 months ago and the S&P500 (SPX) hasn't diverged from our original idea, after buying the bottom of the 6-month Channel Up: We believe that looking into the 1W (weekly) time-frame again will help at giving a fresh outlook and technically the best illustration of the current situation. First we narrowed the Channel Up to the candle bodies and treat the...
The S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago: Right now we see a Megaphone pattern in formation on the 4H time-frame and with the price above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) holding since March 29, we are targeting the top (Higher Highs trend-line) at 4200. If the price...
Pair : SPX500 Index Description : EXP Fiat in Long Time Frame as an Corrective Pattern and Completed " ABC " Corrective Wave Divergence Break of structure Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Wave EXP Fiat STF CHOCH - SMC