Talking about a snoozefest!
Momentum has consistently dropped since July 2014. ADX, D+ and D- are all well below 20 which suggests ranging. D+ and D- have also both dropped off more just recently. Not exactly great trading conditions.
ADX needs to cross 20 and either D+ or D- needs to pick up steam for a clear trend to form again.
A break of 2040 could net...
The SP500 has a remarkable run since 2009, not least due to all that quantitative easing.
Calls for an end to QE and consequently rising interest rates have been growing ever since the latter part of 2014. Since Jan 2015, the SP500 has been ranging in a fairly narrow range and to be honest, it's getting a bit boring.
D+ has just this month crossed below 20 and...
Ahhh so many lines!
I know. So I'll keep this short. Maybe I'm wrong with my conclusions here, but the charts and facts make sense to me. I can't tell you when a crash (slash the next 'correction' to be PC) will be...but I can show you how they're engineering things in the US equity markets without QE
$DIA (to compare industrials vs. broader market a la...
The S&P500 is at important resistances based on Fibonacci projections and showing bearish momentum divergence. We are expecting a corrective down wave (4) towards the 1855 area.
Only a new weekly close above 2120 would invalidate this bearish scenario.
USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112%
USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4%
data up to 10/2014
THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
Plot the ratio of SPX to SPY and most would expect a fairly constant ratio around 10:1 to pop up. But the chart itself shows the same pattern - a quarterly reset starting at about 10.02 and then ratio decay to about 9.97. Last week we were trading 9.96 on average but at end of day Friday we popped to 10.02, right on time at options expiration..
Keep the ratio...
Changes of FED´s speech in the chart, and as they have influenced the dollar and the stocks markets:
FED dropping patient and replacing it with greater emphasis on meeting to meeting data.
Now considering the overbought level, with the dollar strengthening the United States stock market It ought to reach a tipping point That will lead to a healthy correction,...
The business cycle has become a simple fact of economic life. This is so for two reasons: 1) human psychology and 2) central bank interference in the global economy. The Federal Reserve's and European Central Bank's responses to the 2008 financial crisis created asset bubbles in the West, and failed to resolve the solvency problems of the European Union....
Wall Street has posted the sharpest rally in a month today. Looking at this 6 month chart, large up days following dips in the market, have been the bottom for the most recent 5 market rallies. If the pattern repeats, we could see the SP 500 regain 2100 levels next week.
For my analysis for Tuesday's trading, I am anticipating a move down. The market failed to get back to 2088 yesterday and breathed more life into the sellers to take this lower. I am looking to see this test out the low 2050's. The MACD is in favor of the bears. The stochastic however is approaching oversold. The price pattern isn't too bad as it stands now. The...
For my analysis for today's trading day, I am anticipating a move up. The market has been sold off in a rather quick fashion and this caused the fast stochastic line to reach oversold quickly. During this market run, dips have been bought and this run has featured quite a few "V" shaped rallies. If it holds, it can get a chance to regain its lost ground but if...
SP500 fell lower but gain back all its losses quickly leaving a pin bar on the chart. The trend is bullish which add weights into this trade. My first target would be the resistance above at 2,117. Why I go long:
Bullish trend
Pin bar with long wick
Price rejects the 2,089 support level
The ES is moving slow and forming a nice flag. We have moved our stops up to further protect profits. If the flag breaks to the upside then we will expect the 2120 to get hit. With a good amount of economic news this week (including NFP) we will either get stopped out or hit our target. Either way it has been a good trade.
Directly after breakout out of an ascedning wedge pattern, the SPY is not forming a descending triangle. This is a bearish formation that is corroborated by weak indications from RSI, MACD, and Stochastics
The S&P 500 is still ripping & is still going up. Puttin up shorts is
against the trend & can lead to margin calls. But could the S&P500 bullish trend ending soon?
It looks like an ascending wedge, a short would be great if the trend changes. All the indicators are still
green & it did not broke out of the ascending wedge.
But we know.. what goes up will go...
