Actually I do not believe Draghi's speech will be "very" hawkish. What gives me more confident to put this trade on is because the market may have oversold EUR. More particularly EURGBP (following PM Theresa May's last week comment). Retail sentiment is short EUR (except for the EURNZD - which is due to NZ's mixed election result) so I want to go Long. Technical...
I expected USDJPY continue to drift upward today. Yesterday FOMC statement and Yellen's speech certainly helped a lot. Today is BOJ's turn and I really don't think they will reverse anything as their 2% inflation target is just still too far away. Actually since USDJPY strengthening, it helped push them toward their goal a bit closer and I think they will be more...
NZD has strengthened across the board following the latest New Zealand election poll which places the ruling National Party in the lead with 46% of the votes and Labour behind on 37%. This is to me a much more a local issue and yet since AUD follows NZD closely, GBPAUD tanked too. Fundamentally, I am Bullish GBP and Neutral to Bearish on AUD, I'd like to fade...
Based on my statistics, the string of US data release will be dissappointing and the market so far sort of agree. The reason I want to go Long USDJPY is because if the market has priced in weakness and it match, there won't be much selling takes place. On the other if any of these data manage to surprise to the upside, I will be very happy. Why USDJPY? The...
So generally the MPC vote is expected to be Neutral and if we look through a bit, if it does comes out 7 Hold to 2 Hike as expected, GBP should be weaken. Now my intention is to look for clue if the market has already priced this in: on average, up to this point GBP is down with the most down being GBPAUD. Let's say the trend continues to in the next hour, my...
Market is Net Sell USD, thinking it's probably will miss the CPI data despite the base expectation of a beat. Now actually I think it does even need to beat the expectation rather just an on target outcome will be enough to send the USD higher. We just had the GBP release which are very good. Eventhough the vote was Neutral as expected, there was hint of BOE...
We have USD PPI data coming up soon and I've been trying to decipher how the market may have anticipated this. Retail sentiment is Net Long of USD so my base expectation is unless its a better-than-expected number we shouldn't see too much of a jump in USD. Historically a beat is ~45% chances, going back to 2007 data. Now to position myself to the trade, there is...
This is very simple thesis, I want to go long into the GBP expected good data. Yesterday CPI is a very good encouragement and the market should keep trending upward toward the Cash rate vote tomorrow. I missed the intial drift from Asian session. I'd wish I can get up earlier or devote more time for this but simply can't with my Full-time analyst job...
This is related to my Long GBPNZD trade. As mentioned I thought GBPNZD is a bit over-extended but again I want to go with the fundamental Long GBP story anyway. Amongst all the GBP pair, GBPUSD is the one retails are net Short and I hope to bank as their SL gets hit. Fundamentally though I do understand some of their view as also think USD is supposed to get...
I had a really tough time choosing which pairs to trade for this news. Early morning the surprisingly dissapointed Business Confidence releases sent both AUD and NZD lower. As these two are the ones I've consider short against GBP I now face with a dilemma. If I am to go full Short now, I have a little to bank as the move may have overextended but then again...
NZDCAD erased all the gains from CAD rate hike. NZD is a high yield currency so understandably if they gain significantly against low yield currency such as USD but to gain a lot against another commodity currency such as CAD is puzzeling to me. Next week there is not much news for both NZD and CAD but the most significant data left this week is the CAD...
XAUUSD is in uptrend and upper channel line is holding for now. If price will break it i'll look to sell the retest as described on the chart ( as default right shoulder will be created ). support and resistance are marked on chart - please note the most important confulence with fib. Also, this chart can help the traders who think gold will continue its uptrend...
The USDCAD pair has been sideway after a quick drop and rebounce as 3 of the Fed members spoke dovishly. Today is gonna be a big day for CAD. Generally since Bank of Canada is expected to keep rate, the hint will be in the statement so we may see a bit more volatility back and forth during the announcement as people figuring out their next move. Looking forward...
I've drawn on the chart the confluences I can see at a quick study. As you can see, there's plenty pointing towards the 92.000 zone. Price action will now prove this theory right or wrong.
In this 1 Hour chart we can see a good downtrend and a pair of major and minor resistance levels as well as two major support levels .It is more likely and possible to fall short after price touching the trend line and it will probably sell up to to the round number present there 0.78800 and the price is likely to reverse and retrace up to the ...
short bias on Aud/Usd 1st target : 0.75000 2nd target : 0.74000
Bitcoin is on the rise when I'm posting this idea. Orange ticks marked double bottom formation which is holding pair above this level. As you can see important Fibonacci level 38.2% (combined with round number 3K) was rejected 13th of April. Pair is in consolidation for few weeks. Market is respecting support at 2600 which could be use as the Stop Loss area. It...
Hi guys, i've already published few days ago an idea on this pair. Unfortunately we weren't able to take advantage of that idea, but now price has given us a second chance. It has came back to retest the daily structure level (that also lines up with the 618 retracement and a round number) and has formed a nice pinbar showing us some buying rejection. The...