Looking back, commodities had a high conviction in february based on a longterm trend. Combining macd and BB break out. Markets have either risk-on sentiment or defensive. During risk-on phase people want to put money to work, there is too much money. During risk-off or defensive, people want money and safety. Assets become too expensive. Bitcoin rallies...
GBPJPY is flirting between this 185 support price and 188 region, a solid 300 point range, we are hopeful to see a pullback and another opportunity to enter long from this 185 psychological price zone. From here we can look to targets 1R, 3R, 6R respectively. A lucrative setup, with lots of mileage upside, nothing to say we can't target 190.00.
Appears we are running out of risk appetite. Put also looks like we have built a very nice base for a significant move higher. Hopefully, that's a risk on move, not a risk-off move. Personally, I believe we have already corrected in each individual sector, it just didn't happen all at once like it normally does. According to this, risk aversion and sentiment...
Now that a lot of sell side liquidity targets have been met on this week, I'd like to see it comeback up a bit to rebalance the weekly FVG then drop lower into the Monthly FVG cause it would be healthy for the next expansion to new highs on this cycle, final target 120 with bumps on the roads at the lvl I drawn my pink arrow
DXY D1 With the above being said... 'key global topics' and other comments, we have to understand the market correlation and timeframes... We can take yesterdays D1 close with a pinch of salt, due to inconsistent volume, but lets see where we close after today (hoping support holds). US based FX and commodities look like they want to be correcting somewhat....
The S&P 500 has broken down to trendline support after a failed breakout at 4240. The SPY index formed a high at 4238 and tried to break it at 4255, but failed to hold above that alltimehigh. It is now testing trendline support, and the question is whether price will bounce here at support or will support fail to hold and thus lead to a much larger...
Looks like bond yields have gone risk on but the stock market hasn't caught onto this quiet yet. Heavy resistance incoming, break .79 and the bulls will party
Price this previous week has made a nice correction that was overdue.. Price reached the bottom of the ascending channel, & rejected off structure support (Green zone). Unless that region is broken, I will remain bullish on this pair & will be looking for price to move towards the top of the channel once again.
Inverse head on shoulders formation, as price has rejected off support along with the ascending trendline. Will be looking for a break of the neckline for a continuation higher.
Price today has rejected off strong resistance at the top (blue zone), where a lot of bearish pressure occurred to break price below support structure. Price is now pulling back to the previous support where I will be looking for a new lower high / retest of broken support as new resistance to be made. Looking left, you can see how powerful moves occurred off this...
Price is in a rising channel at resistance that was rejected today. Will be watching for a breakout of the channel along with structure to confirm a move to the downside will occur.
Blue line is the 10 yr, they should start to diverge as yields rise and VIX falls. (in the perfect bull world)
I’ll be watching UJ along with US Equities & Gold to gauge whether or not this setup is truly risk off. Ultimately, it is likely to bounce before a larger countertrend move to the downside. If no immediate rejection from the zone identified takes place, shorts could get rekt. Whether up or down, a setup should materialize. Short term bullish, medium term...
=> Here we are isolating the Yen once more and expecting a worsening outlook of US assets to continue which will raise the prospect of asset repatriation out of the US. Whilst risk may be rebounding temporarily as the FED attempts a dovish shift, and US-China trade tensions are likely to continue de-escalating, USDJPY will still like remain on offer amid broader...
Generally, the market will either be in a risk-on or a risk-off environment. During uncertain times, the market is considered to be in a risk-off mode where investors prefer to park their money on lower risk investments. During recovery or bullish times, the market is considered to be in a risk-on mode where investors are willing to park their money on higher...
Trading for this week: 1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high volatility UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I...
Expectations vs Reality: 1. Following the referendum decision on Friday, as expected GBP sold off 10%+, the FTSE plummeted in a similar fashion and global risk assets sold off across the board, but FTSE/ Risk recovered a significant amount of those losses into Fridays close and for the rest of the next week.. So what happened to BREXIT? - Such behaviour would...
GBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU...