Thought id put a piece out as my guide for the week for how to trade the 23rd UK EU Referendum vote. IMO the first rule and most important is - DONT TRADE THE VOTE. Trying to guess the answer is like trying to win the lottery, so instead i advise taking a position on the volatility , as volatility doesnt discriminate, it trades both ways. Trading the...
We had the best possible outcome for FOMC's Rate decision and Fed Yellens speech which was neutral IMO as expected, with the Economic Projections being dovish, downgrading the projected rate hike cycle. We now look to BOJ. Trading strategy: LONG USDJPY (possibly short also GBPJPY for longer term investors or investors that want to hedge against a hawkish...
The best Idea to play BOJ and FOMC from a risk-averse perspective is to own both in a Long Straddle Strategy Dynamic Straddle: Long USDJPY & Short GBPJPY - TP from volatility & Event likely hoods TP levels = cannot be greedy else you may miss one trades exit point so <25 pips when it goes in your direction for each - total TP = 50pips as 2*25pips Reasoning...
This article is a tradable summary of all of the indepth GBP$ analysis i have done recently - I aim to give you a conclusive opinion and trading plan. SEE PART 2 ALSO I suggest you check out ALL of the relevant articles that i attach to this post so that this post makes sense In a nutshell i am heavily short GU, about 8-9/10 @1.44/5 (@1.41 only 2/10) -...
I suggest you check out ALL of the relevant articles that i attach to this post so that this post makes sense SEE PART 1 ALSO GBPUSD historical Price Action The findings of previous the attached "Price action history posts" led to the conclusion that referendum history clearly wasn't repeating itself however IMO because this is the case it has opened up...
BUY USDJPY @106.5 or @107.0 - SL @105 - TP @109-11 based on: $YEN's historical most important support level - The 105.5 Key level will more than likely hold as it has many times before - At 105.5 there are 3 significant UNSUCCESSFUL tests of the level over the last 3 years thus it is a great entry point. Also another plus is if you look at the monthly chart...
*Long $JPY, preferably buy limits at 105.5* 1. at 105.5 there are 3 significant UNSUCCESSFUL tests of the level over the last 3 years thus it is a great entry point. Also another plus is if you look at the monthly chart you will notice 105.5 is the 2nd most important level in $Yen's 20y+ history, the 1st most important/tested is the 101 level. 2.Further, over...
Though id post as just one example, perhaps the most obvious, that shows how heavily the JPY is considered a risk-off asset and to show the clearly, since the SPX is a risk-on asset, that the JPY is negatively correlated with the SPX. In times of market fear/ uncertainty, YEN is sought out, just like bonds and gold, as a safe heaven asset. The theory behind this...
Finally Gold completes the market risk-off 3 for rallying... we not have JPY, BONDS and GOLD all rallying - this completes the set of 3 -riskoff indicators, we are now in full bear mode for stock markets imo.. as you can tell from the US Treasuries and JPY, these riskoff assets have been gaining value for some time, gold has been lagging behind but today...
The similarities are undeniable, and to be honest I don't think the circumstances are that different either. 7 years of unprecedented printing press activity and ridiculous 'easy money' policy by central banks is a recipe for disaster. The yen is on it's way to becoming totally worthless but ironically 2016 is shaping up for yen strength from a technical...
We have a nice setup here in the bond market, we can look to go long on a break of yesterday's high with stops under the 129 mark ideally. It seems like we can rally forcefully to reach 130'27 in a few days. You can also play this one going long TLT during the US session. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm...
This ratio gives very timely signals as to when to more optimally switch between risk on or risk off biases. It's clear that we can long gold, bonds and yen now, I'd be careful with equities, at least not going long indexes, or looking for shorts in weaker securities would be my favored approach. I have booked profits on a few profitable long trades, and...
This monthly chart of gold reveals something very interesting. Gold has had a bit of revival this year but the momentum seems to have stalled a bit. The beautiful reversal pattern in the chart though seems very bullish for gold. Sure, it may see a bit of down move to 1200 - 1150. But that would be a massive buying opportunity to ride till 1500 levels. This also...
In this chart I analyze the currently active signals in the JPYUSD chart, as an alternative way of approaching USDJPY to prevent biases. I'm seeing an active 2 week trend, which has until June 27th to complete, but also if you dial down to the 3 day chart, you can see a valid uptrend signal emerging from the recent 'impulsive' leg to the upside. I'm interested in...
The Cable was killed last week as markets rattled on China fears and US Non Farm Payrolls trumped expectations. Pair finished the week below a descending triangle bottom marked by the 2015 lows and looks set to continue lower over the coming weeks. Initial target is the 1.236 extension of April - June 2015 around 1.4240, this extension coincides with the 2011 lows...
The chart shows the currently active bullish setup on the weekly chart, as well as the important support levels below. We should pay attention in the coming days, since I think we will see a retracement soon. As long as we're producing weekly highs every 5 weeks, we're in a strong uptrend, specially while sitting above the weekly mode, from where a 18 week rally...
GBPJPY is offering a significantly interesting short opportunity, the telltale signs are there. If we look closely, we see that price has bounced from the biggest mode in the downtrend since 1991, and could never go back over it. In time at mode terms, we have a very clear weekly downtrend signal, confirmed by rgmov in the daily plotting a new 2 month low. This...
Interesting patterns in the rgmov line and in the price chart make me think this might be a good short opportunity as the last daily time at mode signal's target has been reached, while USDCAD posted a top and didn't make a new high with price today. I'll enter a 0.5% risk short here, the stop is only 53 pips to the next monthly resistance. It's worth a try, if it...