Prepare for a LARGE weekly and monthly move down on FX_IDC:NZDUSD (or any risk pair) as we've now corrected larger double top down thru Monthly 100EMA and then re-tested as resistance. Ichimoku Cloud on monthly also says lower by end of June and July. SL 0.7450 TP1 0,5760 TP2 0.4910 Please come find me if you need extra service. I aim to please!
Mentioned in the previous post, there was an inherent weakness in the dollar-yen due to its price action around 113.22. While the pair rallied up to 113.35 prior to Asia opening, a huge wave of sell orders sent the pair tumbling. While we saw a potential short opportunity last evening (Singapore Time) on technical basis, the confirmation of North Korea's ICBM by...
OANDA:USDJPY has consolidated for a few days already and failed to retake the 112 level. With a series of lower highs, the supply resistance level is slowly going down to meet with the Weekly 200MA support. Its possible it might find support at the Daily 200MA level as it was able bounce off it from the previous downleg. In my opinion it might still test the...
OANDA:USDJPY just had a breakdown not only breaking the weekly 200MA but also the lower support channel but nothing goes in one direction in the markets so I expect a pullback before another move downwards. The price is currently between the daily and weekly 200MA so I expect sideways action with a slight bullish bias in the short term. It will be Daily...
3/22 Update: Failed breakout higher led to a reversal as risk-off took control of the markets yesterday. Continuation is very likely in equities today as well as a stronger yen (risk aversion). Entries between 138.60 and 139.00. The trend has been broken so this should lead to some strong selling pressure.
After this bearish impulse, it is likely that if the entry level is taken out we may see further downside. The EW count suggests the same. Also, with the inauguration occurring today, there is a possibility for a "risk off" economic environment to take the reigns which would mean a drop in riskier currencies like the kiwi and a rise in the safer yen. Cheers
I think we'll see some kind of retracement in the massive trends we had in place accross the board. Overall, I'm looking to buy weakness in the dollar in the long term, and looking for good value stocks, shorting overvalued stocks if needed, but rarely, and navigating the main trends in commodities. Metals look poised to rally with bonds here, at least in the...
See the chart. Gold is good buy right now. Also check out my other posts to see the context and bigger picture
Trump trade has had a beautiful run so far. No complains. Was needed. It looks to be aging now though. Would be smart to book profits if you are already in there. The honeymoon period would be over when the president-elect becomes the president. Or likely before that. If this holds, naturally, all risk on assets should go down. Spx ( See my recent post) would be...
After the results we can expect a new years high. gl
We have a nice setup in this pair (which you can trade shorting CADCHF as well). CHFCAD is at the bottom of the trading range here and is likely to return to the yearly moving average above. I'll be entering longs, after today's daily close, if we break the daily high. Stop loss has to be under today's low plus 1 tick to be safe. Risk 0.5-1% on this position and...
Risk off move, weak hr trendily support. Call credit spreads trading light though Summer is no time to risk on low liquidity
Gold seems to be headed for the two targets on chart, to be reached before September 23rd. This seems to match my outlook for equities, which appear to be heading back down to the yearly lows, as depicted by Tim West's yearly forecast, of a sideways market. We can fade the sentiment extremes once reached, which is the ideal trading strategy for the rest of the...
Trading for this week: 1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high volatility UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I...
Expectations vs Reality: 1. Following the referendum decision on Friday, as expected GBP sold off 10%+, the FTSE plummeted in a similar fashion and global risk assets sold off across the board, but FTSE/ Risk recovered a significant amount of those losses into Fridays close and for the rest of the next week.. So what happened to BREXIT? - Such behaviour would...
USDJPY has tested the Brexit key level, and is currently fighting the monthly uptrend mode, which if it is broken down, could lead to an extended decline in this pair, a very dramatic one at that. I'm short from yesterday's high give or take, you may enter here if you didn't short at resistance, and use stops at least above yesterday's high, if conservative, over...
GBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU...
Indicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP. 1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability - As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite: 1)...