Nobody is looking at this symmetric triangle at the one hour BTCUSD chart. I personally give 60% chance that this triangle breaks to the upside and 40% change that breaks to the downside, due to the current conditions. We are now in uncharted territory considering the global economy and current issues with the pandemic. However, with the infinite QE announcement...
Platinum at current levels presents tremendous value. The precious metals take turns outperforming and underperforming. In the late 90s palladium went into a bubble while gold, silver, and platinum bottomed out. Then throughout the 00's palladium moved sideways while platinum, silver, and gold all outperformed. I believe we are nearing a similar setup where US...
I believe we will get either a blow-off top in the S&P or a fundamental event that kills the expansion, sending price below the magenta rising support line. If the Fed is too slow to expand the balance sheet, then stocks can correct significantly until the Fed eases adequately. If Trump wins and the Fed expands their balance sheet in 2020 at a fast enough pace,...
This is the Gold Miners Index to DXY ratio. This feels likes 2001 or 2009. Gold is correlating with Fed Funds, the monetary base, and the DXY like its 2009 and 2001. Gold stocks are priced like its 2009. Since 2019 we have seen the Fed Funds Rate free fall, since September 2019 we have seen the monetary base expand past the low set in December 2016, same with...
Technical breakout and retest. My expectation for 2020 is a volatile market for both the US indices and for the gold miners. I think gold miners will actually outperform US stocks to the downside here and then will explode higher once we reach full ZIRP and QE5++. The SPX and other US indices could take a major blow in terms of gold which will drag down gold...
Look for gold to perform similarly to how it behaved from 2009-2011. I believe a significant part of gold's bear market from 2011-2015 was due to the world placing trust in the Central Banks and believing the lie that the Central banks had saved the day. That trust is fading quickly, evidenced from gold's move from 1180 to 1700 in the last 15 months. When ZIRP...
The S&P to Gold Ratio has effectively traded sideways for the last few years. The ratio has now broken out to the downside. I would say that a 30-80% correction in the stock markets remains a threat despite Fed rescue efforts. I believe over the next several years that gold will outperform the s&p500. Contrary to popular belief, US stocks have not greatly...
Its no secret that stocks are currently expensive. QE and other monetary policies have pushed multiple companies into the trillion dollar market cap. Is a repeat of the Dot Com bubble possible? Not sure, but one thing I would put my money on is this... entire economies are coming to a halt because of the coronavirus. This will trigger liquidity injections and...
Spanish mountain has very little debt and is highly leveraged to the price of silver. Very little downside here, tons of mid & long-term upside potential. Intrinsically undervalued company & assets. They're sitting on a literal mountain of silver trading well below their 2016 peak. Conservatively I see SPA / SPAZF increasing 150% in 2020. All this requires is...
Gold miners versus the price of gold itself is the cheapest it has ever been. The gold mining sector cannot go to zero and it is the closest to zero it has ever been. How often does one get the opportunity to enter a sector at generational Value investors should love this sector. - fundamentally undervalued. basing at all-time lows - Gold achieved 6-year highs...
See annotations, and linked idea below. The QE announcement will have an effect on the longer term value of the pair; we will outline the possible effect on both scenarios. We believe QE will not go ahead any time soon, if it does it will be announced mid next year (June) – even though very unlikely. However, we can expect a gradual decline in interest rates...
I don’t think its a coincidence that commodities across the board are looking bullish at exactly the same time as the economy is slowing down and the Fed is quietly conducting QE4. Fed bought twice as many bonds this month than their monthly total during QE3. October rate cut odds are at 90%. I don’t think inflation is going to explode tomorrow but I do think...
"Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks" -St Louis Fed The amount of money pumped into circulation since the great recession is discussing. Asset inflation is making things worse. Buy Gold Buy Bitcoin
If you follow my work, you know how the Bond market is crucial to my analysis. It is the largest market in the world, and we are heading to a period where central banks really have no ammunition anymore and are using rhetoric to maintain confidence in the system. The history of humanity is cycles of hard money and soft money. It seems we are reaching the end of...
Gold typically leads commodities by a few months and so given the surges and breakouts in gold, silver, and platinum, I think the CRB index is next. Looking at the chart, its clear this is a chart that has been gradually shifting in trends. In my opinion, most of the heavy selling is over. CRB index has been forming a sexy looking base and looks like it could...
A lot of indesecisiveness in the DXY since the last FOMC meeting where they decided to leave rates unchanged. Source CNBC article states ," the committee is widely expected to approve an increase at the September meeting and a tweak in the language from the post-meeting statement could be a nod toward more monetary policy normalization." www.cnbc.com -Looking to...
The price i currently at the 0.886 Fibonacci level (drawn from (0) to 1.54729 Where i could see the price be in a range zone from 1.55713 to 1.53964 which is also between 0.886 and 1.13 on fibonacci. The price have been in a strong uptrend, where a trend channel also have formed on the daily chart. The price made a new high before starting to decrease, and can...