If you were to devalue the US Dollar in real time as M1 money supply increases, it would price in inflation in immediately. M1 money supply is the amount of liquid available currency within the federal reserve system. Compare this chart to the current Gold chart and it will give you a glimpse into the future for gold. To quantify this into a gold price, take...
I did my best to draw a *rational* regression trend of DJI adjusted for inflation. Does not signify future inflation or future price of DJI, but rather is meant to signify value in 1970 dollar terms. Not investment advice. Thoughts?
An interesting thing happened in the last 2 weeks of November. Money Supply: United States people fled to cash by converting M2 money stock (savings, investments, money market) into M1 (checking and cash). Dollar: Foreign investors presumably sold off dollar assets bringing DXY down around 2% in the month. To recap: The money supply indicates that US people...
In M1 inflation terms, it hasn't even touched the ATH yet. In fact, it hasn't even matched the 11k suckers' rally of last year. If Bitcoin is in fact an inflation hedge, the run up in price is a sign of strength(2020) rather than exhaustion(2018).
For me both future earnings and hype over M1 chips will eleveate price to at least 130$, maybe new ATH. For now we need to break over the strong resistance (~125$) and then the path is clear. Watch out for the volume... Stop loss as marked with the rectangle
Looking at some of the historic phases we were in (Dot.com Bubble, Real-Estate Bubble) and the current Zero-Interest Bubble, the M1 money stock and the development of the S&P500 the question arises if gold is losing it's relevance as safe haven. Given the explosion of central bank money and the clear trend to govern by central bank monetary policy one would expect...
Gold has to go up as the fed undervalues the USD
Last week Bitcoin broke above its September 19 High, effectively crossing the short-term Resistance, reversing the sentiment to bullish. Why this happened? Well talks of a new stimulus package have been renewed and along that the U.S. Dollar (DXY) has started to lose its value in expectation that new money will be inserted into the system. What does that have to...
Milton Friedman's Money-Supply Rule: Growth of the Money Supply << Rate of Growth of Real GDP = Recession --There is not enough money to buy what has been produced. Growth of the Money Supply >> Rate of Growth of Real GDP = Inflation --There is an abundance of money and not enough goods - prices will rise Growth of the Money Supply == Rate of Growth of...
M1 = coins and currency in circulation + checkable (demand) deposit + traveler’s checks. M2 = M1 + savings deposits + money market funds + certificates of deposit + other time deposits. The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it...
M1 = coins and currency in circulation + checkable (demand) deposit + traveler’s checks. M2 = M1 + savings deposits + money market funds + certificates of deposit + other time deposits. We are looking at the GC1! gold futures vs these money supplies As we print more we expect these money supplies to increase, so we can start to see the 'real growth' in terms of...
M1 = coins and currency in circulation + checkable (demand) deposit + traveler’s checks. M2 = M1 + savings deposits + money market funds + certificates of deposit + other time deposits. We are looking at the major US Indexes Dow 30, SPX 500, Nasdaq 100, & Russell 2000 vs each of these types of money supplies As we print more we expect these money supplies to...
Here we see the correlation of Gold (XAUUSD) and M1 (money supply composed of physical currency and coin, demand deposits etc). During the last two financial crises (DOTCOM and SUBPRIMES), the central bank raised the rates to support the stock market collapse and save the economy from recession. As you see when rates were raised and money supply spiked, Gold...
The chart shows the sharp increase in US "money supply: upon Senate approval of a $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package Money Supply: There are two definitions of money: M1 and M2 money supply. M1 money supply includes those monies that are very liquid such as cash, checkable (demand) deposits, and traveler’s checks M2 money supply is less liquid in nature and...
I've stuck with looking at M1 as a general proxy for economic stimulus more broadly for the sake of simplicity as this an overview. The primary implicit question here is whether or not more economic stimulus will be effective or not and to what extent under the present circumstances. The need for liquidity in the markets has certainly been evident recently, as...
m1>m2 this is contango --- short(VXX) or long(svxy) m1<m2 this is backwardation -----long(vxx) or short(svxy)
Monthly log chart dating back to 1976. Parabolic in 2012 to say the minimum. How this recession plays out is beyond me. Something has to give. Based on my other charts, a pretty picture is not depicted. Clearly all that excess money supply is in financial assets. Makes sense that as soon as corporations experience an earnings recession while at the same time,...