Kiwi is declining through an upward channel and towards its lower boundary. There is a seemingly corrective structure which if broken to the upside, will pave the way for a surge towards the upper boundary of the channel. Cyclical Waves Group
Great head and shoulders pattern, with a double top, two equal shoulders and a basis. I would go short when we touch the green line again with tp around the blue line (around the 0.72 level). For me, the pattern will be fully valid and complete when and if we break the horizontal at that level, which is strong support.
Even though the FED announcement is coming up in a day, we should get enough time to play on the Kiwi. We have a few nice Fib Clusters which should provide support for a trend continuation move on the 1hr chart. I'll move my time-frame down to the 15min mark to see trend reversal signals and a positive break of the 10 EMA. Will look to close before Wednesday...
We have finally broken out of the bearish wedge on the daily and *should* begin our descent down to the 200/250 ema's. To get to that level we must first break support at the .71200~ area. I'm waiting for intra-day confirmation on sunday night/monday morning before I hop in. Entry level and stop placement are entirely up to intra-day techs. Position setup...
After long consolidation , we have long setup. Best RR 1:6 trade
NZDUSD touched a 14-month high yesterday at 0.7344. However, I believe it is overpriced, because: Fundamentally: the RBNZ are in a easing cycle, and cut rates at their last meeting. However, RBNZ struggled to devalue the NZD with their rate cut. Thus, I believe they will take a different approach in the coming months to devalue the NZD - perhaps in the way...
"It's a search-for-yield world and this country still looks attractive because other yields look so unattractive," Mr. Stevens said in a joint interview with The Wall Street Journal and the Australian newspaper ahead of his retirement next month. "That's not something that the Reserve Bank can wave a wand and make go away." The below and above support my bullish...
Minutes were neutral with little hints to further action, much of which inline with the SOMP - if anything it was on the hawkish side given they expect "inflation to be improved by easing" which infers they think policy stable at 1.50% might be sufficient. Though they did go on to say "AUD$ rise could cause complications" though it was kept to a very limited sense...
Governor of the RBNZ Wheeler offered little bearish pressure on kiwi, refusing to go into any intervention talk and failing to say what the bank will actually use to tame this deflationaire NZD they are experiencing at the moment - with the comments below in mind imo this leaves on direction for Kiwi (short of some FOMC/ USD bullish pressure which seems unlikely...
RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision : 1. At 22:00GMT the RBNZ are expected to cut their OCR rate to 2% from 2.25% (25bps), further they will release their monpol statement and rate statement then too - with RBNZ Gov Wheeler speaking 1hr after the release. 2. The are a number of outcomes which are likely to or not to affect the NZD$ market, I will list the combinations...
Relatively poor delivery from the RBNZ, by the looks of the whipsaw the market wanted/ expected 50bps based on the AUD differential and the RBA rate cut last week 50bps or some alt policy (e.g. QE) seemed like the smart move to make. From here Kiwi and Aussie longs look preferential as the macro environment shifts to a yield seeking stance from monpol trading -...
The Govenor of the RBNZ is speaking in 16 hours time - there could be significant up/ downside volatility in Kiwi - as we have seen after the past 3wks where the RBNZ have gone through the full hawk-dove cycle in their inferences/ rhetoric. We had RBNZ Spencer's comments on house inflation back on the 7th of July which wrote off an RBNZ OCR cut - sending kiwi$ to...
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECT 3 RBNZ RATE CUTS OF 25BP APIECE IN AUG, NOV AND MAR. In a scheduled "Economic Update" published on Thursday, the RBNZ signalled a significant strengthening in its easing bias, and dovish shift across its views on domestic inflation and domestic/global growth. At the heart of many of these changes is renewed concern about the elevated NZD. In...
The RBNZ was dovish in their economic assesment and IMO used it to communicate their 100% commitment to a OCR cut. Key drivers of this view were quotes such as "futher policy easing will be required, and monetary policy will remain accomodative.", "NZD currency strength makes it difficult to hit target inflation" and "NZD exachange rate is too high stronger NZD...